Ретейл не в рынке. Что это значит для биткоина

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2022-11-15Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-07-15

Биткоин успел несколько раз за год обновить абсолютный максимум. 14 июля монета в моменте торговалась по $123 091

Часто активный рост биткоина поддерживают покупки частных инвесторов, но на этот раз активность ретейла остается крайне низкой. Редакция BeInCrypto выяснила, что такое положение рынка значит для BTC.

Пока биткоин бьет рекорды, количество поисковых запросов по монете и крипте в целом, по данным Google trends, остается на уровне ноября 2020 года. Низкий интерес к теме может говорить о том, что в рынок еще не вошли частные инвесторы.

Статистика поисковых запросов по словам биткоин и криптовалюта. Источник: Google trends

Статистику подтверждает анализ активности ретейла на споте. По данным CryptoQuant, метрика находится в нейтральной зоне.

Активность ритейла на споте. Источник: CryptoQuant

Участники криптосообщества обратили внимание на еще одну странную особенность. Обычно в пиковые моменты рынка, например, когда биткоин обновляет максимум, лички криптанов завалены вопросами о том, стоит ли сейчас инвестировать. Ретейл начинает активно интересоваться перспективами покупки монеты. Сейчас же, по словам участников рынка, таких вопросов не поступает. Это может быть еще одним косвенным признаком отсутствия ретейла в рынке.

Теперь поговорим о том, что же все это значит. Когда на биржах заметно увеличивается число мелких депонирований — суммы порядка пары сотен или тысячи долларов — это обычно говорит о том, что в игру массово вошли новые частные инвесторы. Так происходит в моменты, когда рынок находится ближе к вершине роста. По состоянию на момент написания обзора, ретейлеры еще не вошли в рынок. Многие участники криптосообщества уверены в том, что отсутствие интереса мелких инвесторов к крипте в моменте указывает на то, что рынок еще далек от завершения буллрана, а значит у BTC есть перспективы продолжения роста.

Некоторые представители криптоиндустрии предполагают, что ретейл пока что не верит в возможность продолжения роста биткоина. За стадией неверия, с точки зрения психологии рыночных циклов, следует фаза надежды, затем оптимизм, а после — уверенность в росте актива.

Таким образом низкий интерес к крипте со стороны ретейла сегодня может быть предвестником продолжения буллрана.

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