Криптовалютные ставки Polymarket на рецессию в США выросли. В чем причина

RBK-cryptoPubblicato 2025-04-30Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-04-30

Участники рынка оценивают вероятность спада американской экономики в 2025 году в 67%, тогда как Трамп призывает набраться терпения и ждать новый бум

Криптовалютные ставки на платформе Polymarket на вероятность начала рецессии в США в 2025 году резко выросли после выхода данных о снижении американского ВВП. Вероятность события оценивается участниками криптосервиса в 67%, по данным на 17:20 мск.

Это самый высокий показатель с момента запуска пула в начале года. Объем ставок в нем составляет $3,8 млн.

Polymarket — крупнейший децентрализованный рынок прогнозов. Пользователи делают ставки на исход событий, покупая токены «да» или «нет» за криптовалюты.

Цена токена отражает вероятность события: если «да» стоит $0,20, значит, шанс оценивается в 20%. Победившие токены приносят $1, проигравшие — обнуляются.

ВВП США по итогам I квартала сократился впервые с 2022 года, сообщили в Bloomberg. Показатель снизился на 0,3% в годовом исчислении. Причинами этому называют рост импорта до введения тарифов и снижение расходов потребителей, что, в свою очередь, было вызвано торговой политикой президента США Дональда Трампа.

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Индекс S&P 500 открылся снижением, а доходность казначейских облигаций США упала. В своей социальной сети Truth Social Трамп заявил, что экономике США «потребуется время», чтобы доказать эффективность текущей политики, и обвинил в падении фондового рынка своего предшественника Джо Байдена:

«Это фондовый рынок Байдена, а не Трампа. Пошлины вскоре начнут вступать в силу, и компании начинают возвращаться в США рекордными темпами. Наша страна будет переживать бум, но нам нужно избавиться от «наследия Байдена». Это займет время и не имеет никакого отношения к пошлинам — просто он оставил нам плохие показатели. Но когда начнется бум, он будет таким, как никогда прежде. Будьте терпеливы!», — написал Трамп.

Курс биткоина также отреагировал падением. Цена монеты за два часа опустилась на $1,5 тыс. На 17:20 мск 30 апреля курс BTC колеблется около $93,4 тыс., суточное снижение — 1,6%.

С момента инаугурации Трампа 20 января прошло 100 дней, за которые он произвел ряд изменений, касающихся отрасли криптовалют. Трамп поменял руководителей ключевых регуляторов, потребовал ускорить разработку и внедрение четких правил для рынка цифровых активов, а также инициировал создание госрезерва биткоинов.

По мнению участников Polymarket, вероятность создания национального биткоин-резерва в США в этом году — 45%. Минимум было 38%, максимум — 77%. На прогнозы по этому событию игроки поставили $2,7 млн.

Мошенники стали посылать бумажные письма владельцам криптокошелька Ledger

Сальвадор продолжил покупки биткоина вопреки МВФ. Как так вышло

Более 50% выпущенных с 2021 года криптовалют потерпели крах. Исследование

Letture associate

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