Криптоаналитик выделяет 5 тенденций, которые спровоцируют ралли альткоинов в 2025 году

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2024-12-30Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-04-30

Ash Crypto указывает на количественное смягчение, снижение ставок и макроэкономическое смягчение как на ключевые факторы риска для альтернативного сезона 2025 года
Одобрение Ethereum ETF и подача заявок на Solana ETF могут расширить институциональный доступ к альткоинам
Доминирование биткоина, смена тональности SEC и слабый доллар завершают оптимистичную ситуацию с альткоинами в 2025 году

В недавнем посте Ash Crypto на X был опубликован новый прогноз рынка, в котором выделены пять ключевых макроэкономических и отраслевых тенденций, которые могут спровоцировать новый рост цен на альткоины в 2025 году. Это соответствует продолжающимся разговорам о потенциальном сезоне альткоинов, которые ведутся различными аналитиками уже некоторое время.

Анализ указывает на смягчение денежно-кредитной политики, динамику ETF, модели доминирования биткоина, изменения в регулировании и изменение макроэкономических настроений как на сходящиеся сигналы.

Снижение ставок Центробанка и количественное смягчение ожидаются к концу 2025 года

Эш называет количественное смягчение (QE) и снижение процентных ставок потенциальными катализаторами роста цен на рисковые активы во второй половине 2025 года. Поскольку дефицит торгового баланса США в марте достиг рекордных 162 млрд долларов, напряженность в мировой торговле подталкивает центральные банки к принятию мер стимулирования, чтобы избежать рецессии.

Тот факт, что рынок криптовалюты увидел возросший интерес к биржевым фондам (ETF) на основе альткоинов, также является хорошим знаком для сезона альткоинов. Одобрение ETF Ethereum создало прецедент, открыв дверь для других альткоинов, таких как Solana, для рассмотрения в качестве ETF. Такие компании, как Grayscale, Franklin Templeton и Canary Capital, подали заявки на спотовые ETF Solana.

Доминирование биткоина приближается к уровням, наблюдавшимся до прошлых сезонов альткоинов

Другим индикатором является показатель доминирования рынка биткоина, который часто достигает пика перед крупным ралли альткоинов. В настоящее время доминирование биткоина приближается к уровням, напоминающим начало 2021 года.

Как всегда, более четкие правила могут стать важной частью возможного роста альткоинов или чего-либо, связанного с криптовалютами. Хорошей новостью является то, что недавно назначенный председатель SEC Пол Аткинс подчеркнул необходимость более четких правил для сектора криптовалют. Это сильно контрастирует со строгим подходом к обеспечению соблюдения правил предыдущей администрации.

Слабый доллар и склонность к риску благоприятствуют криптовалютным активам

Наконец, играет роль и риск-на-окружающую среду. Снижение доллара США смягчило глобальные финансовые условия, сделав более рискованные активы, такие как криптовалюты, более привлекательными.

Есть много хороших моментов и аргументов о вероятности альтсезона в этом году. Наложение потенциального смягчения денежно-кредитной политики, введение альткоин-ETF, нормативные улучшения и изменение настроений инвесторов — все это отличные знаки. Хотя это не 100%-ная уверенность (в криптоиндустрии ничего не бывает), эти события требуют пристального внимания со стороны инвесторов, заинтересованных в секторе альткоинов.

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