杨歌 Gary：Crypto增长的第二曲线

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2025-04-10Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-04-10

Introduzione

第二曲线所带来的转折是双向的，即对Crypto Market和TradFi都会产生质变和深远影响。

2025 年 1 月 20 日 Trump 回归 D.C., 前后短短几天不仅带来了多项行政命令也带来了 $Trump 和家庭币组合。一次空前的全球范围金融洗礼不仅引发了剧变与冲击，也引发了人们在 FOMO 中整夜整夜不睡觉。Solana 一时间被推向历史新高，Meme 当之无愧成为了最大的焦点。

抛开盈亏和情绪，问题是：这里是起点还是终点？

不管 Trump 怎么做，正如在之前写的一篇文章<Trump 胜选后的格局剧变>中提到过 Trump 只是借用 Crypto 的趋势在历史节点上做出有利于自己的决定，但可以说，$Trump 币的市值价格是建立在 Crypto 市场几个周期以来通过 Narratives 逆向构建价值预期形成全球范围内 Consensus 积累习惯基础上的产物。简单讲，他做到了 Meme 和叙事共识变现的巅峰。

尽管截止至 1 月底 Meme 的狂热仍然在继续，高风险的 PVP 博弈下大量单币的价值波段和钻地时间在不断缩短，可以说包括我在内的长期投资人和专业金融从业者的量化经验在 gmgn 和 tgbot 面前已经被彻底颠覆；但是本质趋势仍然很明确：巅峰 always 是对于上一个阶段共识的总结归档，Crypto 增长的第一曲线即将结束。

tl;dr

1.零和博弈与牌桌上的 7 个巨人

2.Crypto 增长第一曲线的意义与强弩之末

3.负和博弈与“最后一个周期”VC 币的困境

4.RYA/RWA 的趋势与 PayFi 的崛起

5.跨越鸿沟：Crypto 增长的第二曲线

6.合规问题下的 Crypto 发展格局与各国的局面

7.剧变转折下 2025 年的机遇和挑战

1.零和博弈与牌桌上的 7 个巨人

十六年四个周期，Crypto 在造富神话上明显 slow down，最主要的表征是摆脱不了 3 万亿魔咒。从 2024 年开始 ETF 的通过尽管把 BTC Reserve 的竞争从个人和机构推向了国家，但是净流出平掉了大量的净流入，第一曲线的增长红利逐渐从正和博弈趋向了零和博弈。

去年新加坡 Token 2049 我比喻了个牌桌上的 7 个巨人。Texas hold 'em 牌桌上有个有意思的情景，如果你今天来了牌桌不知道是来坑谁的，那今天就是来坑你的，这就是零和博弈。

Crypto Market 在逐渐趋向零和博弈之后，牌桌上逐渐显露的 7 个巨人分别是： 1 号位 - 交易所， 2 号位 - 金融机构 ( 如借贷协议与托管商 )， 3 号位 - 做市商， 4 号位 - 项目方， 5 号位 - 鲸鱼大户， 6 号位 -VC， 7 号位 - 散户。以往周期下的牛熊交替，由于第一曲线增长趋势过快，增量资金量大因而总体处于跨周期正和博弈， 7 个巨人的尴尬关系并不明显。进入到 2021 年后第一曲线明显放缓，资金净增长率明显降低，牌桌很快进入到了零和甚至负和博弈。当前 6 号位都尴尬地盯着 7 号位时， 1 号位明显感受到了唇亡齿寒的行业风险，于是开始增加门槛并向 4 ， 3 号位收取更高的保障费用，无奈下的 4 号位本应服务好 5 ， 6 号位，但由于游戏规则的改变只好转而与之博弈，久而久之积怨成疾，游戏变得难以维系。

2.Crypto 增长第一曲线的意义与强弩之末

Crypto 增长第一曲线的意义类似于圣经，佛经，古兰经的传教过程。用叙事描绘信仰，通过构建第一波人的共识以引发后续生产关系的逐渐改变。

但是当今世界与历史不同，一是发展过快，二是实践主义验证的速度极快，因而只提共识没有落实的增长不可维系，十六年四个周期已经是极限。到了这个周期下，无论是 DePIN, RWA, 和 BTCFi, 还是 AI Agent, DeSci, 和 ZK; 没有真实落地的 Real Yield 和 Real Application 很难再持续倚靠 Beta 的红利空谈发展，Trump 的胜选已经是对叙事共识下强弩之末的最后延续，$Trump 本质上就是 Crypto 增长第一曲线的终点。

3.负和博弈与“最后一个周期”VC 币的困境

在 Crypto 增长第一曲线的最后，残留战场的竞争固然是激烈的。尽管 VC 高估值融资，高 FDV 低流动性，有叙事无产品难证伪，高 TVL 长质押难 Redeem，以及高昂的 Listing/MM fee 仍在煎熬继续，但是困境是非常明显的。

零和博弈的最后，如果再不突破第一曲线的边界，不仅不可能出现无中生有的奇迹，还会发生恶性竞争形成负和博弈。很多人预言的“最后一个周期”正是这样的一个结果。“最后一个周期”当然并非是 Crypto 的最后，而是只有叙事共识而没有真实落地的 Real Yield 和 Real Application 的 VC 币项目不可持续。

值得一提的是，Meme 在这里是一个特殊的夹层产物，从叙事共识特点上它仍然属于第一曲线，但是它在用一种前所未有的方式突破人们对金融的认识，通过快速发射和快速博弈，生硬地打破了 VC 高估值融资，高 FDV 低流动性，高 TVL 长质押以及需要 Listing 和 MM 成本的这些问题，用破坏的方法为第一曲线树立了一个终结的里程碑，同时用全球破圈的方式为第二曲线奠定了一个正统性的基础。

4.RYA/RWA 的趋势与 PayFi 的崛起

2025 年 1 月中，我在盐湖城参加一个 LP 会上遇到一位来自尼日利亚的项目方创始人。David 给我演示了他受欢迎的 PayFi 产品并告诉我当前在尼日利亚，Crypto 在支付，金融和资产上的使用比例已经超过 50% （与法币算在一起），由于大量人口没有资格通过传统金融系统的 KYC，因而他们就直接使用了 Crypto 工具。

记得在 2014 年我在北京的一个大会上听到李彦宏 (Baidu CEO) 讲，中国是一个基础产业工业革命和互联网同时发生的地方，所以互联网金融这样新事物会快速发生在中国。那么很显然在十多年后的今天，更基础的产业发展 +Web3 的结合革命正在同样地在非洲，南亚，东南亚，中东和南美极速地上演。包括中美俄在内的物流贸易、生产制造和金融结算公司，已经不得不被迫适应合作商的需求快速卷入这场改变之中。

所以 Crypto 主流市场根本不需要自证什么调整条件，尼日利亚和印度的数据打样已经告诉我们， 2025 年所带来的变革之快将会超过想象，Real Yield Asset, Real World Application, 以及 PayFi 崛起下的 Crypto 增长第二曲线已经近在咫尺。

5.跨越鸿沟：Crypto 增长的第二曲线

很显然，Crypto 增长的第二曲线就是落地应用，Real Yield & Real Application.

一书中提到一个新事物的发展普及过程有五个阶段： 1.Innovator, 2.Early Adopter, 3.Early Majority, 4.Late Majority, 5.Laggards.

其中在 2 到 3 的阶段中，会出现一个很大的鸿沟，绝大多数产品都很难跨过或者需要很长时间来跨过。对于 Crypto 来讲，很显然 3 万亿魔咒就是这个鸿沟本身，Early Adopter 就是接受叙事的人群，而 Early Majority 则是必须看到实质落地应用产生经济效果的人群。

一旦实现 Real Yield & Real Application, Crypto 增长的第二曲线会迅速爆发，直到成为这个世界的主流经济、金融、资产和支付的交易和结算基础。

$Trump 很神奇地在这个点上起到了里程碑的作用，它既是终点也是起点；加上 Trump 本人对于松绑 Crypto 限制逐渐兑现了选举承诺，rescinding SAB 121 等举措也为第二曲线的增长铺平了道路提供了足够的正统性基础。

6.合规问题下的 Crypto 发展格局与各国 ( 和地区 ) 的局面

面对这种突如其来的变化，大多数国家和地区都很难再给出一个明确的前置型法案 (Preemptive Legislation) 进行管理。对于前面所提到的非洲，南亚，东南亚，中东和南美的很多地区，Trump 的胜选与开放政策为后置型法案 (Reactive Legislation) 对 Crypto 的管理提供了最舒适的决策条件，因而快速的爆发也会在今年加速出现。

新加坡和中国香港在金融管理上仍然倾向于前置型法案管理，但是在 Trump 上台并推出 Crypto 相关行政命令之后，也有相应的缓解趋势。中国香港在 2024 年所颁布的以太坊 ETF 和 1, 9 升牌在具有超前性的同时也具有一定的风险压力，这个压力在目前阶段已经逐渐缓解，并在近期 MSO 继续推出的管理条例中进一步规范稳定币的发行和使用；新加坡在这个过程中则会基于已有的法案中倾向一定的后置性，例如 PSA 下的 DPT 监管框架在支付以外仍未对稳定币的发行和使用做进一步详细约定，这个空间继续后置保留的可能性会较大。

总结来讲截止至 2025 年 1 月底，全球合规监管对 Crypto 的发展格局在 Trump 上任的影响下总体是趋于友好的，这个局面并不能说是个稳定的状态，但为 Crypto 增长的第二曲线转型赢得了一定的时间。

7.剧变转折下 2025 年的机遇和挑战

第二曲线所带来的转折是双向的，即对 Crypto Market 和 TradFi 都会产生质变和深远影响。

对于 Crypto Market 来讲这是一次类似于换挡的习惯性转变，这个过程很可能会改变原来固有的 4 年减半周期，或至少在原有基础上，改变情绪和共识对牛熊交替的波动影响，也因此而一定会改变行业内对于项目、资产和应用价值的评判依据。对于全球环境的经济、金融、资产和支付，则是更本质的一次挑战，这个挑战会改变自布雷顿森林法则以来以美国信用为基石的美元本位金融信用体系，以及大量基于凯恩斯主义思想为主导的经济现实。

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