加密寒冬中的火种：顶级交易员集体押注Q3流动性海啸，历史新高只是起点？

marsbitPubblicato 2025-04-09Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-04-09

加密货币内幕人士预判市场下一步走向

  • 过去一周加密货币总市值蒸发12%
  • 以下是行业内部人士对市场走势的预判

准备迎接阵痛期

这基本概括了加密货币行业相关方和分析师在特朗普关税政策引发整个加密货币市场约12%（3350亿美元）市值蒸发一周后的核心观点

至少这是他们对短期走势的判断。长期而言交易员们似乎仍抱有希望

"市场情绪紧张但未彻底悲观"加密货币交易平台Swarm Markets联合创始人蒂莫·莱赫斯向DL News表示，"宏观经济压力和监管不确定性持续施压，但加密货币从业者特有的固执乐观情绪缓和了这种压力"

在美国总统周三对数十个国家全面加征关税生效之际，他与其他专家分享了见解

短期阵痛

加密货币和科技股等风险资产在本轮市场下行中受创尤甚。以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数过去一周下跌约11%

"这类宏观不确定性往往会引发风险规避反应，投资者会撤回资金观望增长、政策和贸易形势发展"加密货币交易所币安CEO邓伟政在声明中表示

比特币过去七日下跌9%至77000美元左右，但LMAX集团加密货币交易市场策略师乔尔·克鲁格认为可能下探70000美元关口

长期看涨

尽管交易员准备迎接进一步下跌，行业内部人士在公开评论中仍持乐观态度

BitMEX联合创始人亚瑟·海斯等市场观察人士押注，美联储将通过允许更多资金在美国经济中流动来应对危机。若美联储果真如此，他预计比特币将在年底前达到25万美元

美联储反应的首个线索将于周三公布3月会议纪要时显现，该会议在特朗普4月2日宣布关税政策前召开

"任何显示美联储倾向于更宽松政策轨道的暗示，都可能为包括加密货币在内的市场带来利好刺激，"克鲁格表示

CME FedWatch工具显示，美联储5月降息概率为54%，7月会议降息概率达96%。利率下调通常会刺激风险资产投资

"今年将会出现某些降息和市场流动性注入，"加密货币数据公司CoinMarketCap研究主管刘爱丽丝告诉DL News，"具体力度或确切时机取决于美联储与特朗普政府的权力博弈"

她的预测？这些措施将在第三季度前实施，从而将比特币推至新高，她表示

"我们将在年底见证新的历史高点，"她说

加密货币行情动态

比特币过去24小时下跌2.3%，报77,658美元

以太坊下跌4.4%，报1,489美元

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