Приближается бычье ралли? Активность китов достигла 5-летнего максимума

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2024-07-13Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-02-13

Приток биткоина на биржи от крупных держателей достиг уровня, который исторически предвещает разворот рынка к росту. Об этом свидетельствуют данные аналитической платформы CryptoQuant.

Ключевой индикатор Exchange Whale Ratio, измеряющий долю крупнейших транзакций в общем объеме поступлений на биржи, поднялся до отметки 0,46. Это один из самых высоких показателей за последние несколько лет, и исторически такие пиковые значения становились поворотной точкой.

Индикатор Exchange Whale Ratio биткоина. Источник: CryptoQuant

Признаки перелома

Как отмечает аналитик CryptoQuant под ником Grizzly, с конца 2024 года этот показатель демонстрировал уверенный рост, однако в последние две недели темп увеличения заметно снизился. Согласно историческим данным, именно достижение таких максимумов с последующим снижением активности крупных игроков часто предшествовало периодам значительного роста цены биткоина.

Анатомия китовых движений

Особый интерес представляет динамика изменения показателя. Если в середине декабря 2024 года, когда биткоин находился вблизи локальных максимумов, коэффициент составлял всего 0,36, то за два месяца он вырос на 27%. Такой резкий рост означает, что крупные держатели существенно увеличили объем переводов на биржи.

Исторический анализ показывает четкую закономерность: когда доля крупных транзакций достигает пиковых значений, за этим обычно следует период накопления, во время которого киты постепенно сокращают объемы переводов на биржи. Именно этот процесс часто становится катализатором нового этапа роста.

Уровень поддержки

Текущую ситуацию укрепляет важный уровень поддержки на отметке $90 000 — средняя цена входа для крупных инвесторов, купивших биткоин за последние полгода. Этот уровень успешно сохраняется уже более трех месяцев.

Фактор майнеров

Дополнительным сигналом служит изменение поведения майнеров. После полугода непрерывных продаж они возобновили накопление биткоинов. Это совпало с фазой «капитуляции», традиционно отмечающей локальное дно рынка.

Стоит отметить, что влияние майнеров на рынок сейчас значительно меньше, чем объемы институциональных инвесторов, особенно после запуска спотовых биткоин-ETF в США.

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