Аналитики Bloomberg: у Litecoin-ETF 90% шансов на одобрение SEC

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2024-07-11Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-02-11

Аналитики Bloomberg предрекают практически неизбежное одобрение биржевого фонда Litecoin. Эксперты оценивают вероятность получения разрешения от Комиссии по ценным бумагам и биржам (SEC) в 90%.

Джеймс Сейффарт (James Seyffart) и Эрик Балчунас (Eric Balchunas) считают, что у Litecoin гораздо больше шансов на одобрение в 2025 году по сравнению с другими криптовалютными ETF. Для сравнения: вероятность запуска спотовых ETF на базе XRP они оценивают в 65%, Solana — в 70%, а Dogecoin — в 75%.

Заявки на ETF альткоинов и вероятность их одобрения. Источник: Джеймс Сейффарт

Почему Litecoin?

Litecoin, созданный в 2011 году как более быстрая альтернатива биткоину, использует аналогичный механизм консенсуса Proof-of-Work. По мнению аналитиков, путь к одобрению SEC для этого коина может оказаться самым простым: необходимые формы S-1 и 19b-4 уже поданы и приняты к рассмотрению, а регулятор рассматривает Litecoin как товар.

Впечатляющий успех первопроходцев

Интерес к новым криптовалютным ETF подогревает успех уже запущенных фондов на базе биткоина и Ethereum. С момента запуска в январе и июле 2024 года они привлекли $40,7 млрд и $3,18 млрд соответственно, согласно данным Farside Investors.

Сейффарт полагает, что ETF на базе Litecoin вряд ли достигнет таких показателей, однако даже при объеме в $50 млн фонд может оказаться прибыльным для управляющих компаний.

Окончательное решение не за горами

SEC должна принять решение по ETF на базе Litecoin, Solana, XRP и Dogecoin в период со 2 по 18 октября. При этом Canary Capital и 21Shares уже подали заявки на запуск ETF для Hedera и Polkadot, хотя аналитики пока не берутся оценивать их шансы на одобрение.

Регуляторные препятствия

Для XRP и Solana путь может оказаться сложнее из-за неопределенного статуса. По мнению Сейффарта, одобрение XRP-ETF маловероятно до полного разрешения судебного спора между SEC и Ripple. Хотя в августе 2023 года суд постановил, что XRP не является ценной бумагой при продаже на вторичном рынке, регулятор обжаловал это решение.

Теперь Ripple возлагает надежды на нового исполняющего обязанности председателя SEC Марка Уеду (Mark Uyeda), рассчитывая на прекращение судебного преследования.

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