QCP Capital: данные по рынку труда США обвалили биткоин до $95 000 — ждем инаугурации Трампа

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2022-09-08Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-01-08

Аналитическая компания QCP Capital опубликовала отчет, согласно которому неожиданно сильные данные по рынку труда США привели к снижению биткоина до уровня поддержки в $95 000.

По данным аналитиков, количество открытых вакансий JOLTS (ежемесячный отчет Бюро трудовой статистики США о количестве открытых вакансий, найме и увольнениях) превысило прогнозируемые 7,74 млн и достигло 8,1 млн. Эта статистика спровоцировала рост доходности долгосрочных облигаций и последующее снижение рисковых активов.

1-дневный график BTC/USDT. Источник: скринер криптовалют Cryptovizor

Массовые ликвидации и эффект домино

Резкое падение цены биткоина привело к ликвидации позиций на сумму около $206 млн всего за час. Негативная динамика затронула и фондовый рынок: индекс Nasdaq торгуется около 21,2 тыс. пунктов, а S&P 500 — в районе 5,9 тыс. пунктов.

Динамика ETF: BlackRock против конкурентов

Приток средств в биткоин-ETF сократился на 94% — с $987 млн до $52,9 млн. При этом IBIT от BlackRock оказался единственным фондом с существенным притоком в $596,11 млн. ARKB от ARK и 21Shares, напротив, показал максимальный отток в размере $212,55 млн.

Движение средств в биткоин-ETF США. Источник: Farside Investors

Ретроспективный анализ

В предыдущем отчете QCP Capital сообщала о покупке компанией MicroStrategy дополнительных 1 070 биткоинов по средней цене около $94 000. Эта сделка совпала с анонсом о планах привлечь до $2 млрд через выпуск бессрочных привилегированных акций.

Биткоин торговался с премией на бирже Coinbase, впервые за две недели превысив отметку в $100 000. Аналитики связывают это с возобновлением чистого притока в спотовые ETF, учитывая, что эмитенты ETF преимущественно работают через Coinbase.

В Канаде, согласно данным Polymarket, политик Пьер Пуальевр (Pierre Poilievre), известный поддержкой криптовалют, стал фаворитом на пост премьер-министра вместо Джастина Трюдо (Justin Trudeau).

Ключевые события недели

Аналитики QCP Capital отмечают важность предстоящих публикаций данных от Федерального комитета по операциям на открытом рынке (FOMC) и отчета по занятости в несельскохозяйственном секторе (NFP). Эти показатели могут значительно повлиять на дальнейшую динамику биткоина.

Текущая коррекция рассматривается специалистами как временная пауза перед возможным ростом на фоне приближающейся инаугурации Дональда Трампа (Donald Trump).

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Report Analysis: Semiconductor Sector Surges 155%, Bernstein Says NVDA and AVGO Are 'Absurdly Cheap'

Title: Bernstein's Semiconductor Quarterly Review: AI is the "Only Game in Town," Highlights "Absurdly Cheap" NVDA and AVGO Bernstein's June 23 semiconductor industry review asserts AI is the sector's dominant driver, fueling record gains. The SOX index rose 155.6% over the past year, primarily driven by a 75% increase in forward EPS, not just valuation expansion. While sector-wide valuations are high, Bernstein identifies a significant valuation gap. Despite leading the AI chip market, Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) have lagged in performance this year. Based on their 2027 EPS projections and critical roles in the AI supply chain, Bernstein rates both as "Outperform," calling their current valuations "absurdly cheap." The report notes extreme divergence within the sector, with memory chips up 500% YTD, while GPUs/ASICs gained 115%. Bernstein upgraded AMD to "Outperform" due to its dual opportunity in both AI/GPU and CPU markets. However, it remains cautious on Qualcomm (QCOM), citing smartphone market pressures. Key risks highlighted include historically high sector crowding and elevated inventory levels, which could pressure the supply chain if demand softens. The conclusion stresses selective stock-picking over broad directional bets, given current high valuations.

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Report Analysis: Semiconductor Sector Surges 155%, Bernstein Says NVDA and AVGO Are 'Absurdly Cheap'

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Bitcoin Loses $63,500 Support As Heatmaps Show Liquidity Building Above Price

Bitcoin has broken below the $63,500 support level, a key area that had previously held during dips. The failure of buyers to defend this level signals a shift in market sentiment, as broken support can turn into resistance. However, analysis of liquidation heatmaps shows significant liquidity building above the current price, between $65,500 and $66,500. This overhead liquidity could act as a magnet for a short squeeze or relief rally, creating tension with the bearish signal from the support break. The near-term direction hinges on whether Bitcoin can reclaim $63,500 or gets rejected, with a move through the overhead liquidity zone needed to improve the bullish setup. Traders are advised to watch for confirmation from price action, volume, and follow-through rather than treating this as a definitive directional call.

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Bitcoin Loses $63,500 Support As Heatmaps Show Liquidity Building Above Price

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Anthropic CEO's In-depth Interview: After AI Becomes a Super Weapon, How to Balance Between Business and Security?

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei discusses his company's approach to AI development, emphasizing the need to balance rapid commercial progress with safety and ethical considerations. He explains Anthropic's focus on enterprise applications, which aligns with their long-term, trust-based values, and details the intense competition in the AI field. Amodei defends his previous warnings about AI-driven job displacement, clarifying his intent was to spur proactive solutions, not predict doom. He addresses Anthropic's work with government defense agencies, stating it's a necessary response to global threats but is conducted with strict ethical boundaries, such as prohibiting autonomous weapons. A significant portion of the interview focuses on the decision not to publicly release the powerful "Mythos" model due to its advanced, potentially dangerous capabilities in cybersecurity, a move he argues is responsible despite criticism. Amodei concludes by advocating for a measured, incremental approach to AI advancement, supported by both corporate governance structures and sensible government regulation to manage existential risks.

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Anthropic CEO's In-depth Interview: After AI Becomes a Super Weapon, How to Balance Between Business and Security?

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DRAM ETF Issuer: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron All Surpass $1 Trillion, the AI Era of Memory Chips Has Only Just Begun

Authors: Dave Mazza, Thomas DiFazio | Source: Deep Tide TechFlow The article, written by Roundhill Investments (issuer of the DRAM ETF), responds to Morningstar's caution about investing in memory chip stocks. Morningstar warns of the sector's history of boom-bust cycles, a lack of economic moats, and potential momentum-driven overvaluation. Roundhill argues the current situation is structurally different due to AI. Key points in Roundhill's rebuttal include: * **Changed Demand & Supply Dynamics:** AI infrastructure, not consumer electronics, is now the primary growth driver for memory demand. New, strict long-term supply agreements with hyperscalers reflect the high capital intensity of advanced manufacturing. * **Existence of a Moat:** High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), essential for AI, has extremely high manufacturing barriers. The market is dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, with new entrants blocked by technological complexity and long lead times for equipment like ASML's EUV machines. * **Strong Fundamental Outlook:** Analyst consensus projects the three companies will rank among the world's most profitable by 2027, with combined profits of $704 billion on over $1 trillion in revenue. Their operating margins have already reached record highs. * **Valuation Re-rating:** Despite significant stock price gains, memory stocks trade at attractive valuations (e.g., a median NTM P/E of 8.37x for the DRAM ETF) relative to projected explosive EPS growth. Roundhill suggests historical valuation frameworks may no longer apply given the new profitability paradigm. Conclusion: Roundhill contends the rally is justified by fundamentals, marking a structural shift for the memory industry into a new era of sustained, AI-driven demand against constrained supply, rather than a repeat of past cycles.

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DRAM ETF Issuer: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron All Surpass $1 Trillion, the AI Era of Memory Chips Has Only Just Begun

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EF's Epic Reorganization: 20% Layoffs, Budget Halved, Is Ethereum Gearing Up for a Leaner Future?

The Ethereum Foundation (EF) has announced a major organizational restructuring, involving a 20% staff reduction (approx. 54 employees) and a division into functional clusters like Protocol, Access, User, Community, and Institutional layers. Co-founder Vitalik Buterin further revealed plans to cut the EF's budget by around 40% over the coming years, aiming to reduce its annual spending rate from about 15% to roughly 5% by 2030, transitioning to an endowment-driven model. This overhaul is seen as a long-overdue correction to the EF's ambiguous role. As Ethereum grew, the foundation faced persistent criticism over ETH sales, perceived lack of execution, and unclear strategy, often becoming a focal point for community frustration amid ETH's price stagnation. The reform aims to redefine the EF's boundaries, narrowing its focus to core protocol research, public goods funding, and ecosystem coordination, while offloading more applied development work to the broader market. Concurrently, ecosystem forces like the newly formed Ethlabs (founded by ex-EF researchers) and other independent groups are stepping in to fill the space, signaling a shift from a centralized model to a more distributed, collaborative ecosystem structure. The move was notably praised by Solana co-founder toly, who viewed a "leaner" EF as potentially more decisive and agile.

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EF's Epic Reorganization: 20% Layoffs, Budget Halved, Is Ethereum Gearing Up for a Leaner Future?

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