Биткоин на пути к $70 000: инвесторы в предвкушении нового рубежа

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2021-02-17Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-10-17

Технические индикаторы указывают на резкий рост цены, а участники платформы Polymarket делают ставки на то, что биткоин преодолеет отметку в $70 000 уже в этом месяце. Давайте разберемся, что происходит на криптовалютном рынке и почему все так взбудоражены.

Спрос на биткоин резко вырос

Представьте себе: спрос на биткоин, который с мая этого года был довольно вялым, внезапно показал значительный рост. За прошлую неделю он увеличился на 177 000 BTC, что привело к росту цены на 5%. А за последнюю неделю биткоин и вовсе подорожал на 12%. Однако аналитики считают, что это только начало.

Хулио Морено (Julio Moreno) из CryptoQuant отмечает: «Для устойчивого роста биткоина до нового исторического максимума необходимо дальнейшее усиление спроса. В предыдущих случаях очевидный спрос достигал пика в 490 000-550 000 BTC». Это указывает на то, что у цены есть еще значительный потенциал для роста.

Динамика спроса на биткоин. Источник: CryptoQuant

1-дневный график BTC/USD. Источник: Bitstamp/TradingView

ETF-ы продолжают скупать биткоины

Биржевые фонды (ETF) в США продолжают активно скупать биткоины. В первом квартале 2024 года они ежедневно приобретали в среднем почти 9 000 BTC. А в среду объем покупок и вовсе достиг $458,5 млн! Причем львиную долю — $393,4 млн — вложил фонд IBIT от Blackrock. Неудивительно, что цена биткоина показывает уверенный рост.

Движение средств в биткоин-ETF США. Источник: Farside Investors

Киты тоже не дремлют

Крупные игроки, которых в криптомире называют «китами», тоже активно накапливают биткоины. Их общий баланс (не считая бирж и майнинговых пулов) вырос до 670 000 BTC. И этот рост превышает среднее значение за последние 365 дней, что является хорошим знаком для цены.

Что говорят ставки?

А теперь самое интересное. На платформе для прогнозов Polymarket участники дают 65% вероятности тому, что биткоин достигнет $70 000 уже в октябре. Причем за последнюю неделю эти шансы выросли на 46 процентных пунктов! А вероятность того, что в 2024 году биткоин установит новый исторический максимум, оценивается в 75%.

Ставки на цену биткоина в октябре. Источник: Polymarket

Не только биткоином единым

Кстати, пока все следят за биткоином, другие криптовалюты тоже показывают рост. Например, Dogecoin (DOGE) заметно вырос после того, как стало известно, что Илон Маск (Elon Musk) пожертвовал $75 млн политическому комитету, связанному с Трампом (Trump).

Похоже, что криптовалютный рынок снова набирает обороты. Технические показатели, активность крупных инвесторов и настроения участников рынка — все указывает на потенциальный рост биткоина до $70 000 и выше. Конечно, нельзя забывать о рисках и волатильности, но факты говорят сами за себя.

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Strategy’s STRC Drop Shows The Risk Behind Bitcoin-Linked Credit Products

Strategy Inc.'s (formerly MicroStrategy) preferred stock, STRC, traded sharply below its $100 reference value during recent market stress, hitting an intraday low of $82.53. The company's CEO framed the drop as a "leverage flush"—forced selling by investors using borrowed money—rather than a fundamental default event. This distinction highlights that the selloff resulted from market mechanics and liquidity pressures, not missed payments by the issuer. The episode underscores the specific risks embedded in Bitcoin-linked credit products, which can behave differently from holding Bitcoin or common stock. As Bitcoin treasury strategies become more complex and financialized, instruments like preferred shares introduce additional layers of risk, including leverage, liquidity constraints, and sensitivity to Bitcoin's volatility. The STRC movement serves as a warning about the fragility of these structures in stressed markets, even when the underlying company remains solvent.

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Australia’s High Court Hands ASIC Major Win In Block Earner Crypto Yield Case

Australia's High Court unanimously ruled in favor of the securities regulator ASIC in a case against crypto platform Block Earner. The court determined that Block Earner's historical 'Earner' fixed-yield product was a financial product and a derivative, requiring an Australian Financial Services Licence. This landmark decision establishes that crypto yield products promising structured returns can fall under existing financial services law, regardless of their digital asset nature. While the specific product is no longer offered, the ruling sets a significant precedent for how similar crypto investment and derivative-like offerings will be regulated in Australia. The case now returns to a lower court to determine penalties against Block Earner.

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Australia’s High Court Hands ASIC Major Win In Block Earner Crypto Yield Case

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Blockchain.com Expands Tokenized Stock Access Through Ondo Finance

Blockchain.com has expanded its partnership with Ondo Finance to integrate tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs into its wallet ecosystem. This move allows eligible, primarily non-U.S., users to access traditional financial assets through a familiar crypto-native interface, blending real-world asset exposure with existing crypto holdings like stablecoins and DeFi tools. Ondo Finance, a key player in tokenizing assets like Treasuries and equities, gains a significant distribution channel through Blockchain.com's large user base. The partnership highlights the industry trend of making tokenized assets as accessible as ordinary crypto tokens, targeting global audiences who may face barriers using traditional brokerage services. While the tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market grows increasingly competitive, questions remain around custody, regulation, and market structure. Blockchain.com and Ondo are betting that seamless wallet integration can address these challenges and drive broader adoption.

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CPU Makes a Comeback to the Table, A $170 Billion "Power Seizure" Drama Begins

A new era is dawning for the server CPU (Central Processing Unit), driven by the shift from AI model training to large-scale reasoning and the rise of Agentic AI. This article explores how the CPU is reclaiming a central role in the AI data center. For years, the focus has been on the GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) for AI training. However, as AI moves to the inference and Agent phase—where tasks involve complex, multi-step reasoning, tool calls, and data management—the workload balance is flipping. Studies show CPUs now handle over 70% of the workload in Agentic AI, up from 10-30% in training. This is because Agent tasks generate massive intermediate data (KV Cache) that exceeds GPU memory, forcing it to be offloaded to the CPU's larger, more scalable memory pools. This increased importance is translating into market changes. Major players are taking note: NVIDIA launched its first standalone CPU line, Vera, based on ARM architecture and optimized for Agent performance. AMD doubled its server CPU market forecast to over $1200 billion by 2030. Analyst reports project the total server CPU market could reach $1700 billion by 2030, with AI-driven demand being a primary driver. Furthermore, the classic ratio of CPUs to GPUs in AI servers is rapidly changing, converging from 1:8 toward 1:1 for Agent deployments. This surge in demand has led to a rare industry-wide price increase of 10-15% for server CPUs from Intel and AMD, breaking a decade-long trend of "more performance for the same price." Demand is bifurcating into high-core-count CPUs for in-rack GPU support and moderate-core CPUs for standalone Agent task orchestration. In China, this global trend presents an opportunity for domestic CPU manufacturers like Hygon (海光信息) and Huawei Kunpeng, who are bolstered by both growing AI infrastructure needs and national policies promoting technological self-reliance ("xin chuang"). The maturity of their software ecosystems is also accelerating, evidenced by faster adaptation to new AI models. In conclusion, the narrative is shifting from a GPU-centric view to one where CPU-GPU synergy is critical. The CPU is no longer a peripheral component but a performance-defining bottleneck and a key growth driver in the AI hardware stack, opening a massive new market estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

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TechFlow Intelligence: AMD AI Director Publicly Criticizes Claude Code for "Becoming Dumber and Lazier", Trump Claims Full Ceasefire in Hormuz But Strait Still Has 80 Unexploded Mines

TechFlow Intelligence Report: This daily digest covers key developments in AI, crypto, hardware, and geopolitics. In AI, SK Telecom faces US export control scrutiny over its partnership with Anthropic, while a Gemini user reports being misled in a scam scenario, sparking safety debates. China's Z.AI launches the GLM-5.2 model, rivaling Claude Opus without NVIDIA chips. In crypto, Bithumb lists ReProtocol, and Upbit delists KernelDAO. On the hardware front, MIT researchers build a custom OS to study chips, ASML denies US claims its advanced lithography machines are in China, and Amazon considers selling its in-house AI chips. Apple's future A21 Pro chip may use TSMC's latest N2P process. Major tech issues include 10,000 GitHub repositories distributing malware and Apple patching a critical eavesdropping flaw in Beats earbuds. US stocks rise, led by semiconductors, with Intel surging 10.6%, while SpaceX falls 3.5%. Geopolitically, despite a US-Iran deal, the Strait of Hormuz remains risky with ~80 uncleared mines, stalling 80M barrels of oil on standby tankers. Iran postpones Switzerland talks, and Trump calls the agreement an "unconditional surrender." The report highlights a contrast: temporary geopolitical calm versus the ongoing, fundamental restructuring of tech supply chains and chip independence.

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TechFlow Intelligence: AMD AI Director Publicly Criticizes Claude Code for "Becoming Dumber and Lazier", Trump Claims Full Ceasefire in Hormuz But Strait Still Has 80 Unexploded Mines

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