回归增长驱动：VC币如何走出叙事主义的困兽之斗？

区块律动Pubblicato 2012-09-24Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-09-12

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The Most Closely Watched Fed Data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index Turned Positive: Analysts Provide Positive Commentary

In the US, the closely watched Federal Reserve inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, fell slightly in June but remained above the Fed's 2% target. However, data showed a strong rebound in consumer spending in Q2, indicating underlying economic resilience despite high interest rates and energy price pressures. The core PCE inflation rate eased from 3.4% to 3.3%. While a positive signal, it remains well above target, creating ongoing monetary policy uncertainty. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that policy decisions will rely on a broader set of inflation metrics beyond PCE, and affirmed the US economy's strength. Analysts cite renewed energy price surges as a key inflation risk for H2 2023, which could force further Fed tightening. Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, though spending remains stable as they seek value. Citigroup economists note that Warsh's focus on wider inflation indicators, including the lower core Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.6%, may reduce the near-term likelihood of a rate hike. While markets price a 59% chance of a September increase, Citigroup believes this expectation is overstated and that another hike may not be imminent.

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The Most Closely Watched Fed Data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index Turned Positive: Analysts Provide Positive Commentary

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How Safe is it to Trade Gram and Make Purchases on Telegram — Explanation from a Lawyer

Currently, it is possible to purchase stars, pay for premium subscriptions, use the crypto wallet, and trade Gram (Toncoin) tokens within Telegram, according to Denis Polyakov, head of the "Digital Economy" practice at GMT Legal. He states there are currently no legal issues for users in Russia because only Pavel Durov personally, not Telegram's operating company, is listed as a terrorist/extremist. However, Polyakov suggests the Russian government might in the future add Telegram's operator company to the Rosfinmonitoring (Federal Financial Monitoring Service) list, similar to Meta in 2022. For now, Rosfinmonitoring has confirmed that sanctions against Durov do not apply to Telegram as a legal entity. This clarification comes after Russia's Federal Security Service opened a criminal case against Durov for allegedly "facilitating terrorist activities." A deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Information Policy had previously advised Russians to stop buying TON (Gram), paying for subscriptions, or conducting any transactions within the Telegram ecosystem.

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How Safe is it to Trade Gram and Make Purchases on Telegram — Explanation from a Lawyer

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Probability of Fed Rate Hike Surges After Warsh Issues 'Hawkish' Warning

The probability of a Fed rate hike has surged following hawkish comments from Chairman Kevin Warsh. At its latest meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to hold rates steady. Warsh emphasized the committee's singular commitment to 2% inflation, signaling no softening of its stance. Markets reacted by pricing in a higher chance of a September hike. The CME FedWatch Tool now sees a 61.4% probability of a 25-basis-point increase. Prediction markets from Kalshi and Polymarket show similar odds. Warsh highlighted two key developments since the last meeting: a significant rise in Treasury yields, which tightens financial conditions, and persistent business investment in AI, which complicates the inflation outlook by boosting demand for expensive infrastructure. Stock markets initially sold off sharply post-announcement but partially recovered the next day, led by tech. Bitcoin traded in a narrow range above $64,000. The next FOMC decision is on September 16, with incoming data on inflation, employment, and consumer spending set to be crucial. Warsh concluded that policy is shifting away from predictable signals toward a more data-dependent approach.

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Probability of Fed Rate Hike Surges After Warsh Issues 'Hawkish' Warning

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The End of the Gold Rush? Global Demand for Precious Metals Is Changing

Global demand for precious metals is shifting. Gold started 2026 strongly, surpassing $5,500 per ounce, but experienced a sharp correction to below $4,000 by mid-year. It now behaves more like a risk asset, sensitive to interest rate changes, rather than a traditional safe haven. However, Chinese central bank purchases continue to provide fundamental support, with its gold reserves reaching record highs and approaching 10% of its total forex reserves. Analysts from J.P. Morgan forecast a year-end recovery to the $4,350-$4,650 range. Silver followed a more volatile path, soaring to $120 per ounce early in the year before halving in value, though current prices remain 70% above last year's levels. The industrial sector, particularly solar panel manufacturers (accounting for a fifth of global demand), is responding to high prices and supply deficits by increasing recycling and reducing metal usage per unit. Analysts note the supply deficit is easing due to increased mining investment, with WisdomTree projecting a gradual rise to $70 per ounce by Q2 2027, supported by expected gains in gold. In conclusion, the precious metals market demands in-depth analysis, as prices are driven by a complex mix of industrial demand and central bank policies. Investors are advised to rely on verified analysis, diversify risks, and make decisions based on objective market facts.

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The End of the Gold Rush? Global Demand for Precious Metals Is Changing

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Expect news tomorrow: this time the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision! What impact will this have on Bitcoin?

A day before the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision announcement, the Japanese yen surged nearly 3% against the US dollar. The sharp move in the currency market fueled speculation that the Japanese government may have intervened again to support the yen. The USD/JPY pair fell over 400 pips to 158.5, its steepest daily drop since Japan's currency intervention earlier this year. Market participants suspect the rapid, strong yen appreciation could be due to direct foreign currency sales by Japanese authorities, though the Ministry of Finance has made no official statement. The yen had previously fallen to its weakest level against the dollar in nearly 40 years. In late April and May, the government intervened with roughly 9.6 trillion yen to prevent the USD/JPY from rising sustainably above 160, but the yen faced renewed selling pressure afterward. Investors are now focused on the BOJ's rate decision and its signals on future monetary policy. Potential hawkish signals from the BOJ are seen as a factor that could support further yen strength. A sharp yen appreciation could create short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin by increasing the risk of unwinding carry trades, where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in Bitcoin and other risky assets. This pressure could intensify if the BOJ takes a hawkish stance or raises interest rates.

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Expect news tomorrow: this time the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision! What impact will this have on Bitcoin?

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