9月10日你必须知道的市场动态｜律动晚报

区块律动Pubblicato 2024-09-10Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-09-10

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This Russell Signal Has Predicted Every Bitcoin Bull Market And It Just Got Triggered Again

Crypto analyst Bull Theory highlights a signal from the Russell 2000 index that has historically preceded every major Bitcoin bull market. The index has reportedly broken out after its longest consolidation period in over 20 years (64 months), a pattern seen before the bull runs of 2012, 2016, and 2020. The analyst explains this breakout signals increasing market liquidity and risk appetite, as capital flows to risk-on assets like crypto. This view is supported by a rising ISM Manufacturing PMI, another liquidity indicator. While noting past performance doesn't guarantee future results, the analyst suggests the setup for a powerful new Bitcoin bull market is present. Separately, Bitmine's Tom Lee suggests the bear market is over if Bitcoin closes above $76,000 for a third consecutive month—a pattern not seen in prior bear markets. Bitcoin is currently trading around $79,600, having closed March and April positively, though some analysts warn of a potential bull trap and further decline.

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This Russell Signal Has Predicted Every Bitcoin Bull Market And It Just Got Triggered Again

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JPMorgan: Saylor’s Strategy Could Buy $30 Billion In Bitcoin This Year

JPMorgan analysts estimate that Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy could purchase around $30 billion worth of Bitcoin in 2026 if its current acquisition pace continues, a significant acceleration from previous years. This follows the company's addition of 145,834 BTC worth approximately $11 billion so far in 2026, much of it bought below an estimated average cost of $75,000. JPMorgan notes the company has accelerated purchases again in April, pursuing an opportunity-driven strategy sensitive to market conditions. MicroStrategy's ability to raise capital is key to this strategy. Its stock trades at a ~26% premium to net asset value, facilitating equity or debt issuance to fund further Bitcoin buys. As of May 3, the company holds 818,334 BTC. Its CFO highlighted the success of its "Digital Credit" preferred equity platform, with over $13.5 billion outstanding, used to service dividends and fund Bitcoin acquisitions. However, this aggressive strategy increases obligations. The company reported a Q1 net loss of $12.54 billion, driven by an unrealized loss on digital assets. Its perpetual preferred stock dividends create a long-term payment commitment, with CEO Michael Saylor acknowledging the potential need to sell some Bitcoin for dividends, while emphasizing the core directive to "Buy more bitcoin than you sell."

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JPMorgan: Saylor’s Strategy Could Buy $30 Billion In Bitcoin This Year

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Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank: One Must Die

"Berkshire Hathaway vs. SoftBank: One Must 'Die'" In May 2026, with half-empty seats at its annual meeting, Berkshire Hathaway, under new CEO Greg Abel, faces investor pressure over its massive $397.4 billion cash pile—nearly 40% of its market cap. This hoard, largely in US Treasuries, resulted from 14 consecutive quarters of net equity sales, including massive Apple divestments. Abel inherits Buffett's "nothing looks attractive" stance in an expensive market likened to "a casino next to a church." However, Berkshire's significant underperformance versus the S&P 500 and a future of sustained high valuations could force a historic choice: returning capital via special dividends or breaking up the conglomerate. Berkshire's "death" would be a slow, existential one—the erosion of its value-investing identity post-Buffett. Conversely, SoftBank, led by Masayoshi Son, is in a frantic race against debt. It has pledged a staggering $64.6 billion for a 13% stake in OpenAI, financed by escalating parent-company debt (over ¥16.3 trillion), a historic $40 billion bridge loan, and the fire-sale of assets like Nvidia, T-Mobile, and Alibaba shares. The plan hinges on a successful OpenAI IPO and the $100 billion listing of its Roze AI unit to refinance. Son's high-wire act faces three correlated triggers for potential collapse: an OpenAI IPO delay or stumble, a sharp de-rating of its key liquid asset Arm (trading at 70x forward P/E), or a failure to refinance the massive 2027 bridge loan at increasingly costly rates. The conclusion: One philosophy must "die." In a prolonged bull market, SoftBank could triumph, realizing Son's AI vision, while Berkshire's conservative model fades into irrelevance. In a downturn, SoftBank's leveraged bet could unravel violently, while Berkshire's fortress balance sheet survives. Their fates are inversely tied to the market cycle's turn.

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Berkshire Hathaway and SoftBank: One Must Die

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Coinbase Q1 Earnings Report: Nearly $4 Billion Loss, Trading Volume Halved. Can AI + RWA Turn Things Around?

Coinbase's Q1 2026 earnings report revealed a net loss of $394 million, largely driven by $482 million in unrealized losses on its crypto asset holdings. Total revenue fell 31% year-over-year to $1.41 billion. Transaction revenue declined 40% to $756 million, reflecting a market-wide slump in crypto trading volumes. Consumer trading was particularly weak, down 48%, though Coinbase's global spot market share rose to a record 8.6%. Key bright spots included institutional trading revenue, which grew 37%, and a surge in derivatives activity following the Deribit acquisition. Subscription and services revenue of $584 million was more resilient, with stablecoin revenue up 11% to $305 million. Adjusted EBITDA remained positive at $303 million. Ahead of earnings, Coinbase announced a 14% workforce reduction (~700 employees) to accelerate its transition to an "AI-native" organizational model. Strategically, the company is pursuing its "Everything Exchange" vision, expanding into derivatives and predictive markets. Its partnership with Circle on USDC remains a core revenue moat, with over 25% of the stablecoin's $80 billion supply held on its platform. The company is actively engaged in shaping stablecoin legislation like the CLARITY Act. Despite significant losses and cyclical pressures, Coinbase is positioning itself as a broader on-chain financial infrastructure provider.

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Coinbase Q1 Earnings Report: Nearly $4 Billion Loss, Trading Volume Halved. Can AI + RWA Turn Things Around?

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Mastercard and Ripple Complete Historic Transaction, New Use Case for XRP?

Mastercard, Ripple, Ondo Finance, and J.P. Morgan's Kinexys have successfully completed the first near real-time, cross-border, cross-bank redemption of tokenized US Treasuries. The pilot transaction, executed in under five seconds, used the XRP Ledger as the settlement blockchain to connect public blockchain infrastructure directly to traditional global banking rails for the first time. Ripple redeemed a tokenized treasury fund (OUSG) on the XRPL, triggering a fiat payout via Mastercard's Multi-Token Network. J.P. Morgan's Kinexys then processed the payment to Ripple's bank account in Singapore. This integration demonstrates a single, uninterrupted flow between on-chain and off-chain systems, addressing a key gap in the rapidly growing tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market. The development highlights a significant step towards a 24/7 financial system and positions the XRP Ledger as a potential settlement infrastructure for institutional cross-border transactions.

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Mastercard and Ripple Complete Historic Transaction, New Use Case for XRP?

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322 Totale visualizzazioniPubblicato il 2024.12.11Aggiornato il 2025.03.21

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