Odaily编辑部投资操作全记录（9月2日）

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-09-02Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-09-02

Introduzione

套利抄底价值币，转入链上做理财；Fractal上参与机会暂不及预期。

本新栏目为 Odaily 编辑部成员真实投资经历分享，不接受任何商务广告，不构成投资建议（因为本司同事都很擅长亏钱），旨在为读者扩充视角、丰富信源，欢迎加入 Odaily 社群（微信@Odaily 2018 ，Telegram 交流群，X 官方账号）交流吐槽。

Odaily编辑部投资操作全记录（9月2日）

推荐人：南枳（X：@Assassin_Malvo）

简介：链上玩家，数据分析师，除了 NFT 什么都玩

分享：

  1. 9 月魔咒如约而至， 8.25 清仓后一直在等 9.1 的基准价格，朴素抄底位置为 9.1 起始价×（1 - 十年平均跌幅）= 58900 × 94.8% = 55800 USDT。

  2. 个人进行套利抄底中，方案为选择抄底价值币，U 买入后在币安抵押借出不看好的 VC 币，卖出得到 U 转入链上生息。

例如： 1 w U 购入 SOL，借出 7800 U 的 ARB，卖出为美元并转入 Kamino 生息。

潜在收益：SOL/ARB 汇率对（基于 ARB 的解锁下跌）+差额的 SOL 上涨+链上利息 5.32% -币安借款利息 2.01% +Kamino 空投

潜在风险：汇率对大涨，差额 SOL 下跌，链上被盗

变量：价值币、VC 币的选择，链上生息的选择（例如 scallop 为 6% ）、CEX 借贷产品的选择（详见新鲜出炉分析文章）。

推荐人：golem（X：@web3_golem）

简介：比特币生态捕手、撸毛练习生、永远吃不上热乎选手

分享：

最近玩比特币生态的重点还是在 Fractal 上，有许多 pre-Fractal 概念和矿机概念的 NFT 发售。但是整体参与下来发现，并未有想象中的财富效应发生，多数 NFT 项目陷入无人打和打完即破发的命运，因此奉劝大家谨慎出手。

这说明两个情况，一是经过多轮迭代目前比特币生态用户质量已经显著提高，对于只玩概念的粗糙项目有了较高的筛选门槛；二是或许用户对于 Fractal 生态的期待过高，而实际在大盘下行和比特币生态整体活力不佳的情况，Fractal 很难吸引除 Unisat 用户外的更多人参与。

当然，也可能是 NFT 天然流动性和破圈效应不如同质化代币，Fractal 主网上线不久就会启动 BRC 20 ，期待生态到时能有较好的表现。

往期记录

8 月 26 日

8 月 21 日

8 月 19 日

推荐阅读

空投周报｜Hamster Kombat 拟于 9 月 26 日进行空投；Floki 已完成 CAT 空投快照（8.25-9.1）

一周代币解锁：MODE 和 TAIKO 迎来天量解锁

Letture associate

Google's AI Chief is Actually the Secret Backer of Anthropic, Hassabis Quietly Controls the Global AI Ecosystem

A bombshell report reveals that Demis Hassabis, the head of Google AI and DeepMind founder, was an early, secret investor in Anthropic, Google's arch-rival in the AI race. This discovery unveils a vast, interconnected empire—dubbed the "DeepMind Mafia"—where Hassabis's capital and influence extend through numerous top AI startups like Inflection AI and Ineffable Intelligence, which have collectively raised over $14 billion. Despite the public rivalry between Google's Gemini and Anthropic's Claude, Hassabis personally funded Anthropic at its inception, a stake now astronomically valuable given the company's reported $900 billion valuation. Furthermore, a close, mentor-like relationship exists between Hassabis and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Concurrently, Hassabis has consolidated power within Google. Following the 2023 merger of Google Brain and DeepMind into Google DeepMind, his loyalists have assumed key leadership roles across Google's AI and cloud divisions. However, Hassabis continues to operate his power base from London, not Silicon Valley. The report paints a picture of Hassabis as a master strategist, quietly orchestrating the global AI ecosystem through a web of personal investments, former protégés, and internal corporate control, ensuring his influence prevails regardless of which public-facing company wins in the market.

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Google's AI Chief is Actually the Secret Backer of Anthropic, Hassabis Quietly Controls the Global AI Ecosystem

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Conversation with Glassnode Analyst: Bitcoin Bull Market Has Restarted, Current Market Still in 'Sell on Rally' Phase

Bitcoin analyst Checkmate believes the cryptocurrency market is now in a bull phase following a likely capitulation event in June, with an 80% probability the $60,000 low marked the bottom. However, he expects a prolonged consolidation period, similar to past cycles. Key resistance levels are identified at $78,000 (short-term cost basis), $85,000 (a critical supply zone and 200-day moving average), and $95,000. Sustained price appreciation requires consistent capital inflows, with institutions expected to enter more aggressively if Bitcoin surpasses $100,000. The discussion extends to macroeconomics, where rising global bond yields signal a loss of trust in government fiscal management. Checkmate argues this reflects a broader monetary regime change, where Bitcoin and gold will serve as primary stores of value outside the traditional system, while fiat currencies like the USD act as mediums of exchange. Finally, Checkmate criticizes proposed Australian capital gains tax reforms, calling them a "wealth grab." The plan to replace a 50% discount for assets held over a year with inflation indexing based on low CPI rates would drastically increase effective tax rates, punishing savers and investors trying to overcome the country's severe housing affordability crisis. He urges public opposition to prevent such policies from spreading globally.

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Conversation with Glassnode Analyst: Bitcoin Bull Market Has Restarted, Current Market Still in 'Sell on Rally' Phase

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After Polymarket and Kalshi, Are There Any Dark Horses Left in the Prediction Market?

The prediction market, once a niche crypto experiment, has evolved into a mainstream financial and information market, moving beyond a sole reliance on political events. The 2024 US election showcased platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, but sustained post-election volume from sports, tech, and economics proved long-term demand. By 2026, a duopoly controls ~97.5% of volume: Polymarket leverages on-chain trading, USDC settlement, and media integrations, while Kalshi uses CFTC compliance to access mainstream finance via partners like Robinhood. New challengers are emerging in specific niches: short-cycle trading (@trylimitless), media-native markets (@MyriadMarkets), social platform integration (@kash_bot), and infrastructure layers (@azuroprotocol, @theclearingco). Key 2026 drivers include AI agents executing over 30% of on-chain trades, media platforms embedding odds as engaging content, and sports becoming the dominant sustained vertical. Core challenges remain: contested volume metrics, state-level regulatory friction classifying markets as gambling, and token airdrop speculation inflating activity. The future lies not with generic clones, but with platforms possessing deep vertical focus, clear distribution advantages, and viable regulatory or on-chain liquidity strategies.

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After Polymarket and Kalshi, Are There Any Dark Horses Left in the Prediction Market?

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Tracking Digital Asset Markets Beyond Crypto-Native Venues

Glassnode has expanded its analytics platform to track digital asset markets beyond crypto-native venues. New data includes daily price and volume for U.S. spot ETFs and publicly-listed digital asset treasury (DAT) companies. This allows users to compare the behavior of these listed equities against underlying crypto assets, assessing which stocks act as strong proxies. ETF trading volume data provides insights into institutional participation and liquidity, helping to distinguish genuine market trends from thin, speculative moves. These new metrics offer a unified view of crypto exposure through traditional finance instruments, bridging the gap between on-chain and traditional market data.

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Tracking Digital Asset Markets Beyond Crypto-Native Venues

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New Paradigms and Investment Logic in the Era of AI+Web3

In the era of AI+Web3, a venture capital firm shares insights from reviewing numerous projects. The AI industry is seen as still early-stage, structured in a "seven-layer matrix" from power infrastructure to AI agents. Investment timing is crucial, especially in cyclical sectors like AI data centers. The integration of AI and Crypto is deemed essential for two reasons: 1) AI agents require "financial sovereignty" for micro, high-frequency, machine-to-machine transactions, and 2) blockchain provides trust and auditability to address AI "hallucinations" and ensure transparency. The core investment principle is "honesty." Teams must be genuine, not hastily assembled, and products must be substantiated by real metrics, not just flashy demos. Projects built on honesty are valued for long-term success over short-term hype. Looking ahead, the most underestimated opportunity for 2026 is the deep fusion of AI, blockchain, and entertainment. While most investment focuses on B2B infrastructure like payments and decentralized computing (DePIN), the future lies in consumer applications. As AI automates most human labor, society will shift towards leisure, creating massive demand for high-quality entertainment. AI can power immersive experiences (e.g., NPCs with autonomous consciousness in games), while blockchain secures digital ownership and economic systems. This convergence could unlock tremendous value in user time and capital within virtual worlds. *Disclaimer: The content represents the author's views for discussion only and does not constitute investment advice.*

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New Paradigms and Investment Logic in the Era of AI+Web3

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