破局山寨熊市、需要一场DeFi复兴

币界网Pubblicato 2024-08-22Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-22

币界网报道：

如果 DeFi 不存在，ETH 的价格可能是 400 美元。DeFi 迄今为止给 ETH 增添了最多的市值和用例，而非相反。在 DeFi 被忽视时，ETH 生态的情绪就低落，这不是巧合。想要 ETH 再创新高的唯一路径是通过 DeFi，大家该意识到这点了。

当下的加密市场是怎样的？

  • 是山寨币的熊市 —— 尽管 BTC 仍在 6 万美元高位震荡，不少山寨币已回撤掉本轮全部涨幅，甚至创阶段新低。新币更是大多「出道即巅峰」。

  • 赌徒多于信仰者 —— 「价值投资一场空，梭哈 MEME 住皇宫。」并不是玩笑，是不少在行业中感到「财富焦虑」的朋友们的真实观点。炒新不炒旧，即使「群友互割」也不给 VC 「接盘」。

  • 缺乏资本的流入 —— 没有所谓的「Mass Adoption」，没有 Retails 流入，只有场内的大家相互 PVP。A 想要赚钱则 B 必须要亏钱，没有共同做大的蛋糕。

怎样才能破局？我认为需要 DeFi 来一场文艺复兴。

DeFi 之困

DeFi 在这轮周期也异常挣扎。在流量为王的时代里失去了叙事热度，无人问津。这样的局面是怎样形成的？

加密市场的 90% 是叙事游戏，而令人沮丧的事实是 —— 大多数有影响力的 Shillers 和 KOL 与 DeFi 代币利益无关。推销他们几分钟前购买的模因币或与那些为 KOL 分配大量代币的新协议合作会更加有利可图。

那些制造叙事的人很少真正持有 DeFi 代币。KOL 也看不到提及 OG DeFi 项目的价值，因为成为早期内部人士才能够获得最大的好处：大量的代币供应由团队或 VC 持有，而多数已经解锁。

因此，推广 DeFi 代币的任务似乎属于项目构建者本身，以及 DeFi 的真正信徒们。

一句话：DeFi 的困局是市场风气浮躁，投机者占上风时的必然结果。但如果加密市场除了 90% 的叙事游戏外，还有 10 % 的实际用例追求的话 —— 当市场理性回归，局面将得到修正。

DeFi 未来

DeFi 有内在价值

DeFi 代币是有价值的，与人们厌恶的低流通、高 FDV 的 VC 币和模因币完全相反。

OG DeFi 代币（AAVE、MKR、COMP、CRV 等）：

  • 大部分已流通

  • 逐渐受到关注的收益共享机制

  • 经过时间验证的 PMF（产品市场契合）和长期建设的韧性

不少 DeFi 协议已经实现盈利，且有回购机制（Maker）、ve 代币模型（协议收入和外部 Bribes 给到代币锁仓者，Curve），或正在计划中的收益共享机制（Aave）。持有这些代币，相当于拥有了源源不断的现金流。

DeFi 是核心用例

区块链究竟是什么，解决什么问题？区块链为了解决大家谁也不信谁的问题，把传统行业只需中间人（银行、公司）存储几份的数据变为每个参与者都得存储一份，再通过共识机制确定一份大家都认可的公帐 —— 本质上是冗余存储。

冗余存储是成本更高，不经济的，在有人愿意支付这溢价的用例上才能竞争过中心化解决方案。而交易、转账、借贷等财产性强的金融活动能忍受一定程度的低效和高成本（相对中心化方案），追求绝对的安全性。去中心化金融（DeFi）是区块链天然的核心用例。

DeFi 是行业方向

当下市场存在的问题：赌徒多于信仰者、缺乏资本的流入，都是可以随着行业发展解决的。但行业会朝什么样的方向发展？

本轮周期的最大发起者，真正的「弄潮儿」，一手促进比特币 ETF 通过的华尔街巨头贝莱德。

金融资产上链，能绕过现有的去中心化金融基础设施吗？稳定资产兑换，例如链上美元和链上欧元间的外汇转换，是否会选择 Curve？链上利率衍生品（在传统市场中有万亿美元规模）是否能直接 / 间接利用 Pendle？金融资产的抵押借贷，不考虑代码身经百战未出差错的 Aave 吗？（传统金融不愿彻底去中心化，放弃所有权？Aave 能为 Lido 推出专用市场，不能为 Blackrock 定制专门市场吗？）

DeFi 就是行业方向，它有足以吸纳改变行业格局的资金的体量。

DeFi 正文艺复兴

DeFi 正在醒来。

自 Aave 提出收益共享计划后，币价自底部接近翻倍。Curve Finance 创始人的借贷仓位终于被完全清算，「利空」出尽后，CRV 自 0.18 USDT 回升至 0.34 USDT。各协议的链上数据也在好转：

xFML1QftIb4OG56OmA2epc2j3H8gp1YaJ6baha4b.jpeg

Aave 日活跃地址数在 8 月 19 日达到近一年高点。

有了 DeFi 复兴，狂暴大牛市还远吗？

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