观点:降息未必会降低贝莱德 BUIDL 吸引力

深潮Pubblicato 2024-08-20Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-20

如果实际利率保持稳定,美联储降息的潜在刺激效果可能比预期的要弱,国债就可能仍具有吸引力。

撰文:Kaiko

编译:1912212.eth,Foresight News

降息不太可能减少代币化国债的吸引力。

贝莱德的链上代币化基金 BUIDL(代表贝莱德美元机构数字流动性基金)是过去 18 个月内推出的众多基金之一,它提供对美国国债等传统债务工具的敞口,并迅速成为最大链上基金(按管理资产计算)。该基金于 2024 年 3 月与 Securitize 合作推出,目前已吸引超 5.2 亿美元的资金流入。

大多数此类基金投资于短期美国债务工具,其他顶级基金包括富兰克林邓普顿的 FBOXX、Ondo Finance 的 OUSG 和 USDY,以及 Hashnote 的 USYC。每只基金都提供与美联储基金利率一样的收益率。

随着代币化基金的热度上升,链上资金流动和相关代币的二级市场活动也有所增加。Ondo Finance 治理代币 ONDO 出现最大的交易量激增,这与其与贝莱德 BUIDL 合作的公告同时发生。随着 BUIDL 资金流入激增以及对链上基金的兴趣增加,ONDO 的价格在 6 月份创下了 1.56 美元的历史新高。然而,热度从那以后就开始减弱,随着美国利率环境的变化,资金流入可能面临阻力。

自 8 月 5 日的抛售以来,市场有关美联储「落后于形势并需要更积极地降息以避免经济衰退」的说法愈演愈烈,目前市场预计今年将降息 100 个基点。

上周美国公布的通胀数据低于预期,进一步巩固了对 9 月降息的预期。然而,降息并不一定意味着货币政策放松。如果美联储降低名义利率,但通胀以同样或更快的速度下降,那么实际利率(即调整通胀后的名义利率)可能会保持稳定甚至上升。

事实上,即使美联储保持名义利率不变,衡量企业定价能力的生产者价格指数(PPI)调整后的实际联邦基金利率今年也略有上升。

如果实际利率保持稳定,美联储降息的潜在刺激效果可能比预期的要弱。这种情况下,与风险资产相比,国债可能仍具有吸引力,因为投资者可能更倾向于流动性和安全性,而不是承担风险。

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