WBTC陷信任危机 tBTC能否趁势而起

币界网Pubblicato 2024-08-16Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-16

币界网报道:

作者:crv.mktcap.eth,加密KOL;翻译:0xxz@

上周,BitGo宣布将交出WBTC的控制权,在接下来的周末引发了对包装BTC的健康状况担忧。

dgcWbxc8nPUQzpl2XNZKcV8r6eJBTZAcmucj5q2I.png

JZhK8xZtmygDpq3gaEoKkZC2kO8NTN3yrKrtuxyO.png

为什么有些人会担心孙宇晨(Justin Sun)拥有更大的WBTC战略权力?

DeFi潮的那代人可能还记得孙晨宇之前的比特币包装产品HBTC,但它的表现欠佳。目前,它的交易价格更接近USDT,而不是BTC。

这次会有所不同吧。

RQN2TQgYwPcNQbj02IObZZb0sZRU5yBhXixMhYaq.png

精明的孙晨宇很快澄清了他在生态中的确切角色。尽管如此,DeFi用户还是发起了一场关于WBTC在生态中发挥何种作用的严肃讨论。

GYzaas7PhUw7nCicmS52V9qjNeqJpwioddHybfT1.png

WBTC因其相对集中化而受指摘,然而,最大的BTC包装产品在竞争中脱颖而出。上个周期,

CurveFinance特别将WBTC与Ren的renBTC和Synthetix的sBTC汇聚在一起,这两个产品现在都不存在了。

thKKyJaIAUJQO4TWkyvZqoLFyEkPxjT4ORkWQtxD.png

除了WBTC还有其他选择吗?到目前为止,还没有完美的解决方案。

一个诱人的选择是frxBTC,据传它即将准备就绪。虽然很诱人,但degens的要求是“现在,立刻,马上”。

Avax也有一个托管解决方案BTC.B。

ZdF3um4ydCvafiBftu5Ms8zmIIzpKbehh3D0UiXG.png

WBTC最明显的替代品是Threshold Network的tBTC。除了更加去中心化之外,tBTC在规模上也表现出了林迪效应:

•v1: 4年

•v2: 1.5年

Ikm9C7H6jz1apHqkSZKOdNpj9ZCAFZMBLbhKAzMY.png

在BitGo的宣布之后,MakerDAO对关闭所有的WBTC债务进行了激烈辩论。然后,构成约10%的DAI支持,放弃WBTC将需要一个强大的替代品。tBTC进入人们的视线也就不足为奇了:

h17iVwmJ1pWyCrSZ04J17H0a5wq2KvJcQFmh64LB.png

7zKn3oLFy2TadTDoNwZXwikA3KTrfKskviLdWfLx.png

tBTC具有良好的DeFi采用率。它在Curve Finance上被广泛使用。除了在主要的稳定和波动池中积极交易外,tBTC还支持crvUSD稳定币。

一些交易员已经开始轮换交易:

YyfCvEee9hkwQI6lYTBlFMioSp78pzmt8roirxCx.png

这场风暴真的会导致tBTC/WBTC暴跌吗?在公告发布后不久,小时图显示价格出现了一些变动。但我们预计,暴跌不会马上发生。

RkmUnJ8oYohBGLulLV31knhd18hd6PKkQMuWRjrm.jpeg

过去一周里,两种包装BTC代币的市值都相当稳定。即使被人们大肆讨论,两者都没有表现出大量流入或流出。

5l4nxi6Se0izudaPhgVPYHkEvhUJOCFCrKXk31AS.jpeg

44owhcT9zz1NmfBpLqytuGx2cB49YmiSVBUf3252.jpeg

两者的市值相差甚远:

WBTC:15.5万BTC

tBTC:3000 BTC

这确实是“疯狂的护城河!”WBTC以最薄的利润运营着。价值90亿美元的BTC净赚手续费只有1270万美元。

DbvdybevSsVTzUKecJy8hAQHUaVm7LGw5AMDZS89.jpeg

VgwIVYzYIfmMcPQAr1DxnW86mthsXEfE9KgAOkSV.png

因此,WBTC不太可能很快消失。它在这么多轮周期中积累的流动性和集成不会很快被取代,尤其是在该代表继续运行并保持挂钩的情况下。

SCbMB8jgPOidaFsdowrKheNvcopy5yOyDReGvHPF.png

尽管如此,如果你想促进一个更加去中心化的未来,下次你想桥接BTC到ETH时,你可能会考虑铸造tBTC。

关于如何使用tBTC的详细信息请参考:

RZl3oPh9qQyuPJXmE1yMaLdMMjIVg22OXkUljjau.png

Letture associate

Trillion-Dollar Pension Fund Entry? Franklin Bitcoin Dividend Reinvestment ETF Comes with a Built-in Selling Pressure Ceiling

Franklin Templeton has filed to launch two ETFs that embed a "default configuration" logic into Bitcoin investment, aiming to tap into massive pension fund flows. These "Bitcoin Dividend Reinvestment Index ETFs" will initially hold 95% equities and 5% Bitcoin, automatically reinvesting stock dividends to buy Bitcoin. However, a quarterly rebalancing rule forces selling of Bitcoin if its allocation exceeds 5%, capping its maximum holding at 20%. While the product cleverly circumvents advisor reluctance and compliance hurdles by labeling itself as a U.S. equity product, its actual Bitcoin buying power is minimal. Given low dividend yields (e.g., ~1% for broad market indices), annual Bitcoin purchases from a fund the size of Franklin's existing Bitcoin ETF would be a mere $3.6 million—negligible against Bitcoin's daily trading volume. Crucially, during bull markets, the fund becomes a programmed, passive *seller* of Bitcoin, potentially creating sustained sell pressure if many similar funds emerge. The strategy leverages investor inertia and automatic enrollment, similar to the success of target-date funds in 401(k) plans. It also uses an offshore Cayman subsidiary for holding Bitcoin and raises a tax complication where investors must pay taxes on dividends they never receive as cash. Although recent U.S. regulatory changes allow crypto in retirement plans, widespread adoption as a default option faces legal hurdles. The core premise remains: the system doesn't need to convince anyone to buy Bitcoin actively; it simply relies on people doing nothing.

marsbit16 min fa

Trillion-Dollar Pension Fund Entry? Franklin Bitcoin Dividend Reinvestment ETF Comes with a Built-in Selling Pressure Ceiling

marsbit16 min fa

Bitcoin Hits 20-Month Low as Largest Bull Suffers $15 Billion Paper Loss

Bitcoin Hits 20-Month Low as Major Bull Loses $15 Billion On June 25th, Bitcoin fell below $60,000, hitting a low of $58,030—its lowest level since October 2024. The sell-off triggered over $1 billion in leveraged liquidations in 24 hours, with longs accounting for $788 million. This marks a more than 53% decline from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,198. A critical factor in the downturn is the weakening position of MicroStrategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder. With 847,363 BTC at an average cost of $75,651, the company now faces over $14.6 billion in unrealized losses. Its core financing flywheel—raising capital to buy Bitcoin—is stalling. Its variable-rate preferred shares (STRC), a key fundraising tool, have fallen 25% below their $100 target. This raises doubts about its ability to continue providing steady institutional demand for Bitcoin. Simultaneously, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing significant outflows, with a single-day net outflow of $469 million on June 24th. This represents the most severe sustained capital flight since their launch. The macroeconomic backdrop remains restrictive, with persistent inflation delaying expected Fed rate cuts. Analysts note a shift in capital allocation, with institutional funds moving away from crypto towards AI infrastructure stocks. Immediate pressure comes from approximately $10 billion worth of Bitcoin options expiring on June 26th, which could increase market volatility. The combined effect of these factors—eroding core demand pillars, macro headwinds, and capital rotation—has decisively broken the $60,000 support level.

Foresight News22 min fa

Bitcoin Hits 20-Month Low as Largest Bull Suffers $15 Billion Paper Loss

Foresight News22 min fa

STRC Falls Below $80, Can Conservative Investors Still Buy the Dip?

The article analyzes whether the STRC (a perpetual preferred stock issued by MicroStrategy) presents a buying opportunity after its price fell below its $100 par value to around $80, offering a seemingly high yield of 13-15%. The core argument is that STRC's discount reflects market skepticism about the sustainability of MicroStrategy's capital structure model, not just temporary panic. This model relies on issuing securities (like STRC) to raise funds to buy more Bitcoin, a "flywheel" that works in a bull market. The recent small sale of BTC to fund dividends, while minor, broke the psychological "never sell" anchor and signaled potential strain. Key risks identified are not a traditional Ponzi collapse but a potential breakdown in the financing narrative: 1) If Bitcoin enters a deep bear market, crushing MicroStrategy's stock premium (mNAV), its ability to raise cheap capital weakens. 2) If STRC remains deeply discounted, it signifies permanently higher funding costs. 3) The high cash dividend yield represents a significant ongoing expense. 4) If selling BTC to pay dividends becomes routine, the bullish narrative reverses. The conclusion is that STRC is not a risk-free high-yield asset. It is a high-coupon bet on whether MicroStrategy's BTC treasury financing model can withstand a bear market. Buying it is a wager that the market will continue to believe in and fund this structure at acceptable costs. The current price asks if this cycle's "casualty" might be a BTC treasury company's融资 model itself.

marsbit38 min fa

STRC Falls Below $80, Can Conservative Investors Still Buy the Dip?

marsbit38 min fa

Why Do Crypto Projects Keep Changing Their Names?

**Why Do Crypto Projects Keep Changing Names?** In the crypto world, changing a project's name is common—over 16% of projects have done so, including major ones like Polygon (formerly Matic Network). This contrasts sharply with traditional businesses, which fiercely protect brand equity. The core reason is that in crypto, brand loyalty is often weak. Users are frequently investors, airdrop hunters, or yield seekers, not traditional consumers. A name associated with price crashes, hacks, or failed narratives becomes a liability, not an asset. Renaming can be a strategic reset to shed this baggage. Name changes serve as a potent marketing tool. They can signal a genuine pivot in strategy or scope (e.g., EthSign dropping "Eth" as it expanded). However, they are often used to "narrative surf," rebranding to align with hot trends like AI, RWA, or the metaverse (e.g., Elrond → MultiversX). Critically, renaming is also a PR tactic to distance a project from past failures like security breaches (e.g., Anyswap → Multichain). The most significant risk emerges when a name change is coupled with a token migration or swap. This process can allow projects to reset exchange price charts, erase visible historical downtrends, and create an illusion of a fresh start. It often facilitates liquidity resets, where low float can be exploited for pumps. More alarmingly, migrations sometimes mask overhauls to tokenomics, introducing substantial new token supply through "ecosystem funds" or "node rewards," effectively diluting existing holders. The fundamental issue isn't renaming itself, which can be valid for strategic evolution. The problem is when it functions as an escape from history—a way to avoid accountability for past mistakes, failed promises, and poor performance. When a project announces a rebrand, the critical questions are: What tangible new capability or strategy does it represent? Has the tokenomics changed? And what part of its past is it most trying to make users forget?

marsbit44 min fa

Why Do Crypto Projects Keep Changing Their Names?

marsbit44 min fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片