SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240814)：CPI前夜

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-08-14Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-14

Introduzione

昨日（13Aug）美国7月PPI同比上升2.2%，低于预期，和前值比较也大幅下滑。随着币价的上行，波动率曲面再度出现走陡的变化。

昨日（1 3A ug）美国 7 月 PPI 同比上升 2.2% ，低于预期，和前值比较也大幅下滑，在今天 CPI 发布之前，交易员增加了对美联储放宽政策的押注，十年期国债收益率现报 3.838% ，创近期新低，两年期跌破 4% ，报 3.941% 。美股受此提振集体收涨（道指+ 1.04% ，标普+ 1.68% ，纳斯达克+ 2.43% ），助力 BTC 冲破 6 w（收于 60874 $，+ 2.75% ），ETH 站上 2700 美元（收 2725 $， 2.75% ）。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240814)：CPI前夜

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240814)：CPI前夜

Source: Invensting

随着币价的上行，波动率曲面再度出现走陡的变化，具体来说，PPI 数据的公布打消了一些不确定性，中前端（尤其是 ETH）的 IV 明显下跌，但末日的 IV 仍因今晚的 CPI 数据而享有有较高的 Vol Premium，远端 IV 微微上涨，从交易上能持续看到一些 Top Side 的买入。从 Vol Skew 上看，ETH 的 RR 整体持续上涨，前日（12 Aug）Grayscale 的 ETHE 首次终结了资金流出，成为一个重要的转折点，整体 ETF 也连续两天得到正向流入，为 ETH 的币价提供了支撑和信心，使其连续突破 2600 和 2700 两道防线，再度向 3000 发起挑战。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240814)：CPI前夜

Source: Deribit （截至 14 AUG 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240814)：CPI前夜

Source: SignalPlus, ATM

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240814)：CPI前夜

Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240814)：CPI前夜

Data Source: SignalPlus，Deribit ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240814)：CPI前夜

Data Source: SignalPlus, Deribit BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240814)：CPI前夜

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