火星早报｜昨日今晨要闻 （8月13日）

marsbitPubblicato 2024-08-12Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-13

火星早报｜昨日今晨要闻 （8月13日）

美国

特朗普在X平台最新发文：让美国再次伟大

美国前总统特朗普在X（原推特）平台最新发文表示，“你现在的情况比我担任美国总统时好吗？ 我们的经济支离破碎。我们的边界已经消失。我们的国家正在衰落。 让美国梦再次变得可行。让美国再次安全。让美国再次伟大。

美联储9月降息50个基点的概率为48%

据CME“美联储观察”，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为52%，降息50个基点的概率为48%。美联储到11月累计降息50个基点的概率为35.6%，累计降息75个基点的概率为49.3%，累计降息100个基点的概率为15.1%。


三箭资本的清算人正在向Terraform Labs寻求至少13亿美元的赔偿

破产的加密货币对冲基金三箭资本 (Three Arrows Capital) 的清算人正在向破产的Terraform Labs寻求至少13亿美元的赔偿，以弥补该基金在2022年TerraUSD和Luna代币崩盘后遭受的损失。


美国司法部和SEC在没有采取行动的情况下结束对卖空者Carson Block的调查

消息人士称，美国司法部和美国证券交易委员会（SEC）在没有采取行动的情况下结束了对卖空者Carson Block的调查。


萨尔瓦多获土耳其Yilport 16.2亿美元投资，旨在支持"比特币城市"建设

萨尔瓦多政府周日表示，土耳其控股公司Yilport将向萨尔瓦多的两个海港投资16.2亿美元，这是该国历史上最大的私人投资，有望支持其 "比特币城市 "的建设。 

“这将是一家由Yilport公司和萨尔瓦多共同持有的公司，将在未来50年内运营这两个海港，”政府在周一由萨尔瓦多总统纳伊布·布克勒分享的一段视频声明中说。该协议是布克勒2022年访问土耳其的产物。其中一个港口是阿卡胡特拉海港，负责该国大部分咖啡、糖和秘鲁香醋的出口。另一个是拉乌尼翁海港，一个位于比特币城市计划建设地点的闲置和废弃的海港。


美议员Vivek Ramaswamy预测哈里斯将拥抱比特币和加密行业

美国参议员Vivek Ramaswamy预测卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)将拥抱比特币和加密行业。Ramaswamy称，“我认为这对国家来说是一件好事……这不应该是一个党派问题。”


DeFi 主导地位跌至三年来的最低点

DeFi 指数周五从 3.82% 跌至 2.84% 的低点，DeFi 主导地位已降至三年来的最低水平。2024 年，memecoin 等板块的表现优于市场，而 BTC 和 ETH 的 ETF 的推出也吸引了机构对这些资产的兴趣。这导致 DeFi 主导地位今年迄今下降了 29%，市场参与者对大多数 DeFi 代币表现出不大的兴趣。


哈里斯逆袭特朗普，Polymarket风云突变，亿万赌注悬于一线

美国副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在Polymarket预测市场上超过特朗普，成为总统选举的热门候选人。哈里斯团队开始与加密行业接触，特朗普一直支持比特币。Crypto4Harris组织将举办市民大会，多位加密行业领袖将发表演讲，支持哈里斯成为数字资产领域的领导者。特朗普反对出售加密货币，马斯克计划与特朗普进行现场直播对话，引发公众对总统选举的关注。


金矿探秘：Game7 DAO的财富之旅，链上游戏的掘金时代

G7 DAO是一个由BitDAO和Forte发起的DAO，投资孵化了多个游戏，其中HyperPlay去年融资1200万，并与Metamask合作。G7开启积分计划，最新参与合作的项目有YGG、Mantle等知名项目，玩家可以通过参与任务、推荐朋友、参与挑战等方式获得积分，积分可用于未来的所有权和治理机会。建议玩家选择自己喜欢的游戏完成任务，6周内可获得更多积分。G7致力于与50多个游戏和10+社区合作，共建gamefi生态系统。


解读 Vessel Finance：红杉等知名机构参投 1000 万美金，ZK 加持的 DEX 有何过人之处？

Vessel Finance是一个新的DEX交易平台，旨在解决当前DEX面临的问题。通过构建统一的Layer 3平台，整合不同L2的优势，降低交易成本、提高可扩展性和流动性聚合，提供更好的价格发现和更低的滑点。Vessel还汲取了CEX易用性的精髓，提供统一、直观的用户界面。它采用可验证的AMM嵌入式订单簿技术，支持跨链操作，保证交易的可验证性和安全性。Vessel目前处于封闭的测试网阶段，主网将于3季度上线，同时还将开发永续DEX、流动性聚合、排序器去中心化等特性。在竞争激烈的DEX赛道，Vessel的激励、低交易成本、丰富的交易对和可验证性等特点将决定其未来表现。



Letture associate

BTC Market Pulse: Week 26

Bitcoin's market activity has cooled as it consolidates after a strong recovery. Spot trading volume has decreased, and order flow has shifted to net selling. While price momentum remains constructive, institutional demand has softened, evidenced by continued net outflows from US spot ETFs and lower on-chain transfer volumes. Derivatives markets show a cautious stance. Futures open interest is stable, but declining perpetual buying pressure and a rise in demand for downside protection indicate a more defensive trader posture. Beneath the surface, supply dynamics remain supportive. Supply is increasingly held by long-term holders, profitability is high, and realized gains are increasing. A slight rise in active short-term capital could lead to higher volatility. Overall, Bitcoin is range-bound. Fading momentum and moderated participation are balanced by resilient holder behavior, stable futures positioning, and healthy profitability, creating a foundation that awaits the next major market catalyst.

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BTC Market Pulse: Week 26

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Infamous MEV Bot JaredFromSubway Drained For $7.5 Million

The notorious Ethereum MEV bot "JaredFromSubway" has been drained of approximately $7.5 million after attackers tricked its automated system. Security firm Blockaid reported that the bot was deceived into approving malicious trading routes by attacker-controlled contracts. These approvals were then used to siphon WETH, USDC, and USDT from the bot's contract. The incident is ironic as MEV bots are designed to exploit minute market advantages, but in this case, its own automation became the vulnerability. The attack specifically targeted the bot's trading logic, not the Ethereum protocol or a broader DeFi application. It underscores a critical risk in automated trading: the pursuit of speed can create fragility, making systems susceptible to carefully crafted traps. While the financial loss is significant, the broader impact is reputational for MEV infrastructure. It serves as a warning that automated systems granting token approvals require stringent safeguards, simulation, and route verification. The event is considered a targeted exploit on a trading bot, not a network-wide security issue.

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Infamous MEV Bot JaredFromSubway Drained For $7.5 Million

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Report Interpretation: J.P. Morgan Details Micron's Pre-Earnings Sentiment, Current Hardware Sector Dynamics

Morgan Stanley analyst Joshua Meyers' report (June 21, 2026) highlights key trends in the hardware and semiconductor sector ahead of Micron's earnings. The core takeaways are: 1. **Micron & Memory:** Memory remains a high-conviction long theme, driven by strong AI demand and rising ASPs. However, investor focus is shifting to the sustainability of Micron's >80% gross margins and the specifics of potential new long-term supply agreements (SCAs). 2. **Hardware Supply Chain:** AI-related demand for servers, networking, and storage remains robust, but company performance is diverging. Celestica (CLS) shows improved margin confidence, Western Digital and Seagate benefit from pricing, Fabrinet (FN) sees predictable AI optics growth, and Teradyne (TER) anticipates a new Google customer. 3. **AI Capex & WFE Forecasts:** JPMorgan increased its Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market growth forecasts to 28% in 2026 and 29% in 2027. AI infrastructure financing is evolving, with higher project-level debt reducing constraints on capex expansion. The report signals that while the AI-driven hardware cycle is strong, the market is entering a phase focused on execution verification (e.g., Micron's SCA details, Fabrinet's ramp with Amazon) and valuation sustainability. Key near-term signals include Micron's guidance, Arista Networks' outlook, and the pace of demand normalization post potential tariff-related pull-ins.

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Report Interpretation: J.P. Morgan Details Micron's Pre-Earnings Sentiment, Current Hardware Sector Dynamics

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Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

Report Analysis: Federal Reserve's New Chair Debut – A New Captain, But the Same Script? Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth B. Carpenter analyzes the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in a June 21 report. Warsh deliberately avoided providing forward guidance on interest rates, aligning with his philosophy. However, market expectations for a rate hike this year were reinforced. Key signals lie elsewhere: inflation may fall more than expected, and quantitative tightening (QT) could be more aggressive than anticipated. The FOMC's "dot plot" suggests only one rate hike in 2026. Carpenter argues that if inflation undershoots forecasts, the logic for even a single hike weakens, especially as projections indicate potential rate cuts in 2027. On QT, Warsh's stance is clear. Carpenter notes that measures like halving the Treasury's account balance could shrink the Fed's balance sheet by around $500 billion with minimal market impact. Combined with adjustments to reserve interest and liquidity rules, the ultimate QT scale may exceed expectations, though its market effect might be less disruptive unless the Fed actively sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). While Warsh initiated a review of the Fed's policy framework, the 2% inflation target remains intact for now. The report concludes that the market may be overestimating the significance of reduced forward guidance and the near-term rate hike risk, while potentially underestimating the scope and manageable nature of the coming balance sheet reduction. The key debates will hinge on upcoming core PCE data, the specifics of the QT path, and the framework review's findings.

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Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

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Critical Game Week: BTC Retracement Confirmation vs. HYPE Support Battle | Guest Analysis

This weekly analysis outlines a critical juncture for BTC and HYPE markets, focusing on key price level confirmations. **BTC Analysis:** BTC is at a pivotal point after a five-wave rally from the June 5th low of $59,100. The price has broken below a short-term rising channel's lower boundary, with the current move seen as a pullback to test this breakdown. Failure to reclaim this level could lead to a retest of the $59,000-$60,000 support zone. The core scenario hinges on this channel retest outcome. * **Key Levels:** Resistance at $64,500-$65,000 (channel boundary) and $69,500-$70,500. Support at $59,000-$60,000 and $55,000. * **Strategy:** A core bearish stance is maintained (20% short from last week), with short-term plans for tactical trades. Three detailed contingency plans (A/B/C) are provided for short positions on resistance tests or breakdowns, emphasizing strict stop-loss discipline. **HYPE Analysis:** HYPE shows strong momentum but is currently in a corrective phase after hitting a new high of $76.94. The price is retesting the crucial $64-$66 support area. * **Key Levels:** Resistance near $77 and $80-$82. Support at $64-$66 and $52-$54. * **Strategy:** The short-term approach is "buy on dips, avoid chasing rallies." A long position is considered only if clear stabilization signals appear at the $64-$66 or deeper $52-$54 support zones, with tight risk controls. **General Risk Management:** A standardized trailing stop-loss protocol is emphasized: set initial stop, breakeven at +1% profit, then trail stops upward to lock in gains. *Disclaimer: All analysis is presented as a personal trading framework, not investment advice. Market conditions are complex and require dynamic adjustment.*

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Critical Game Week: BTC Retracement Confirmation vs. HYPE Support Battle | Guest Analysis

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