ETH 和 LINK成为最大的输家

金色财经Pubblicato 2024-08-12Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-12

  • ETH 和 LINK 的前景最为乐观,但在 2024 年仍处于买入不足的状态。

  • LINK 预计其将跌至 7 美元左右,几乎抹去 12 个月的所有涨幅。

  • ETH 跌破 2,200 美元,鲸鱼纷纷涌入现货市场购买。

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ETH 和 LINK 位列月度和 12 个月回报率最低的资产之列。尽管预期和效用看涨,但 ETH 和 LINK 却成为回报率最差的资产。 

以太坊 (ETH) 和 ChainLink (LINK) 在过去一个月遭受的损失最大,跌至资产组合中回报率最低的水平。根据采用率和实用性,ETH 和 LINK 是最受关注的资产之一。然而,活跃的交易和市场逆风使这两种代币成为 2024 年最不成功的押注之一。 

根据 Santiment 的数据,ETH 和 LINK 显示出最明显的“血流成河”迹象,表明部分回报可能来自反弹。但 ETH 和 LINK 并没有像人们经常预测的那样出现超大规模的反弹。

ETH 和 LINK 的跌势持续了一天,一夜之间市值蒸发了 20% 以上。然而,即使在牛市期间,ETH 和 LINK 也显示出买入不足的迹象。 

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周日,Chainlink 和以太坊的 30 天(短期)和 365 天(长期)平均交易回报率均创下新低。从历史上看,其他交易商的“血案”越多,就越有理由承担他人的痛苦。

LINK 重返反弹前区间

LINK 回升至 9.03 美元,但仍未抹去过去 12 个月的所有涨幅。LINK 的交易价格仍高于熊市尾声时 5.87 美元的低点。但动荡的日子可能会继续给价格带来压力。LINK 现已跌至两年区间,与其他抹去 2024 年以来任何看涨涨幅的山寨币类似。

就 LINK 而言,预计会再次回调至 7-8 美元区间。LINK 在之前的市场周期中表现类似,出现短暂的反弹和大幅回调。 

LINK 负责确保 Aave 协议上锁定的价值,但代币价格无法突破 18 美元的区间。预计 2024 年 LINK 将回到 35 美元并最终创下新高。目前,LINK 锁定的价值超过 180 亿美元,由于整体市场状况,过去一天下跌了 14%。 

由于临时代币解锁,LINK 的供应量也面临潜在的通货膨胀。总供应量的 44% 以上存放在有条件的团队钱包中,将解锁用于国库储备。这些代币没有归属时间表,也没有固定的发布日期。 

ETH 现货买盘处于区间底部

ETH 价格上周开盘时未平仓量与比特币 (BTC) 相比相对较低。然而,ETH 是一种交易量很大的代币,过去 24 小时抹去了它的价值,造成的损失甚至比波动性较大的 meme 代币还要大。

聪明的投资者在市场进一步崩盘之前就开始抛售 ETH。在 ETH 跌至 2,200 美元区间后,黑客钱包甚至利用这一事件来建立头寸。

智能货币钱包的现货购买量回升。买家正在使用借贷协议中的稳定币,尽管市场崩溃,但这些稳定币仍在发挥作用。

在平掉大部分衍生品头寸后,ETH 价格现在掌握在现货买家手中。自 ETF 交易推出以来,ETH 未平仓合约清算总额超过40亿美元。与此同时,Grayscale 抛售了超过 10 万个 ETH,其头寸从 250 万个 ETH 缩减至 239 万个代币。Grayscale 仍然是唯一一家积极抛售头寸的 ETF,而其他基金甚至在周末也报告了资金流入。

ETH 的跌幅也快于 BTC,其市场占有率从通常的 17% 左右缩水至 15.1%。受股市负面消息的影响,ETH 在新一周甚至跌破 2,200 美元。日本央行将利率上调 0.25 个百分点,导致基差交易崩溃,进而影响全球股市,这是股市和加密货币市场当前下跌的导火索。 

继前三天的清算之后,加密货币市场在过去 24 小时内清算了超过 10 亿美元。当前的加密货币崩盘引发了自 4 月市场调整以来最大的清算事件,主要攻击的是多头仓位。 

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Borrowed Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Real Money

"Rented Faith: How Much of Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Real Money?" Bitcoin ETF inflows are often seen as a barometer of institutional conviction. However, week-to-week analysis reveals they are primarily driven by a hidden arbitrage trade rather than directional bullishness. This is the cash-and-carry trade: buying the ETF while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin futures on the CME to lock in the price difference (basis). This delta-neutral activity registers as ETF inflows but reflects a rate-seeking, not price-betting, strategy. Data shows weekly ETF flow volatility is closely tied to hedge fund ("leveraged funds") short positions on CME futures, with a correlation of 0.70. About half of weekly flow variation can be explained by this single factor. In contrast, Bitcoin's weekly price changes have no statistically significant power to predict flows. Crucially, while this arbitrage trade dominates weekly *fluctuations*, it is not the main component of the cumulative *stock*. Of the ~$55 billion total net inflow, the estimated net arbitrage position is only about $1 billion. The vast majority is steady, directional buying averaging ~$400 million per week. Thus, ETF flows overstate the *volatility* of belief, not its *level*. The "rented" arbitrage capital churns, while "owned" directional capital forms the bedrock. This arbitrage trade has been unwinding for two years, with hedge fund shorts peaking at ~$14 billion in late 2024 and falling to ~$4.5 billion. Recent outflows align with basis compression, signaling the trade's exit, not a loss of faith. For Ethereum ETFs, the same dynamic is weaker due to negative carry from forgone staking yield. The key takeaway: To interpret ETF flows, watch the basis vs. Treasury yields and CME hedge fund net shorts. They reveal how much of the weekly "demand" headline is driven by rented, rate-seeking capital versus real conviction.

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Borrowed Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Real Money

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Two Giants' Credit Expansion: Loan Balances of $9.9 Billion vs. $14.6 Billion, Brazil Emerges as the Main Battlefield

Title: Two Giants "Credit" Surge: Loan Balances of 99 Billion vs. 146 Billion USD, Brazil Emerges as Main Battlefield Summary: The article compares the rapid expansion of credit businesses by two major e-commerce and fintech players, Sea (via Monee) and Mercado Libre (via Mercado Pago), in overseas markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America, contrasting with a slowing domestic Chinese credit market. Using Q1 2026 financial data, it highlights their significant growth. Sea's Monee reached a loan balance of $99 billion, up 71% year-over-year (YoY), contributing 17.5% to Sea's total revenue. Mercado Pago's loan balance hit $146 billion, up 87% YoY, contributing 45% to its parent company's revenue. Both maintained stable risk metrics (e.g., Monee's 90+ day NPL at 1.1%) despite rapid scaling. Brazil is identified as a key and accelerating growth market for both. Sea's Brazilian operations saw loan volumes exceed $10 billion, growing 250% YoY, with SPayLater GMV penetration still low (~10%) indicating high potential. Sea also secured a key Brazilian financial credit license (SCFI). Mercado Libre's Brazil segment contributed over half (54%) of total group revenue, with its credit business there generating $11.24 billion in revenue, up 89% YoY and accounting for 12.7% of global revenue. Mercado Pago's credit portfolio, especially credit cards (46% of loans, +105% YoY), is a strategic focus, described as crucial as building logistics was a decade ago. Its net interest margin after loss (NIMAL) remains high at 17.8%. The article concludes that while Brazil presents immense opportunities, the success is largely driven by these integrated "e-commerce + fintech" giants with proprietary transaction data and ecosystems, making it challenging for standalone fintech players to compete effectively.

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Two Giants' Credit Expansion: Loan Balances of $9.9 Billion vs. $14.6 Billion, Brazil Emerges as the Main Battlefield

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Research Report Analysis: Is Intel Making a Comeback with Apple? Bernstein's Calculations Show the Right Direction, but the Price Is Already Overvalued

Bernstein analyst Stacy A. Rasgon published a report on June 18 regarding Intel, assessing the potential impact of recent political support for a US-based PC chip design and manufacturing collaboration between Apple and Intel. The report views this as a significant signal for the foundry landscape shift but concludes the initial financial contribution would be minimal. Key conclusions: 1) An Apple deal is seen as a small-scale "proof of concept." Even if Intel wins 40% of Apple's premium notebook chip orders (~5 million units/year), Bernstein estimates it would generate only about $500M in annual revenue and ~$0.03 EPS, negligible against Intel's ~$55B revenue. 2) Political encouragement is not equivalent to enforceable mandates. Winning orders ultimately depends on Intel demonstrating competitive technology (like its 18A node), cost, and reliable supply. 3) The path from validation to large-scale production involves significant challenges, capital investment, and time. Due to these uncertainties, Bernstein maintains a Market-Perform (Hold) rating with a $100 price target, implying potential downside from the ~$121.10 price at the report date. The analysis highlights the tension between near-term validation value—serving as a crucial trust signal for Intel's foundry ambitions and US supply chain resilience—and the long-term opportunity to attract larger cloud and AI chip customers. The investment thesis hinges on successful 18A execution and sustained policy support, not on immediate financial gains from Apple.

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Research Report Analysis: Is Intel Making a Comeback with Apple? Bernstein's Calculations Show the Right Direction, but the Price Is Already Overvalued

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845 Totale visualizzazioniPubblicato il 2024.12.13Aggiornato il 2026.06.02

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