【比推周末重点新闻回顾】Polymarket上预测哈里斯赢得总统大选的概率升至52%,超出特朗普六个百分点;加密初创企业Q2融资额达到27亿美元;Tether:将针对Celsius发起的约 24 亿美元“勒索性质”诉讼进行辩护

比推Pubblicato 2024-08-11Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-11

比推周末重点新闻回顾:

Polymarket上预测哈里斯赢得总统大选的概率升至52%,超出特朗普六个百分点】

比推消息,加密投注平台Polymarket 数据显示, 用户目前预测卡马拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 赢得 2024 年美国总统选举的概率上升至 52%,超出特朗普六个百分点,特朗普赢得大选的概率下降至 46%,该投注的总资金已超过5.6亿美元。

【加密初创企业Q2融资额达到27亿美元】

比推消息,据DLNews援引Pitch Book数据,加密初创企业Q2累计融资27亿美元,融资笔数达503笔。较前一季度相比融资额增加了2.5%,但交易笔数减少了12.5%。

PitchBook表示,随着投资者情绪的回升,预计全年投资的数量和步伐将继续增长。

Tether:将针对Celsius发起的约 24 亿美元“勒索性质”诉讼进行辩护】

比推消息, 根据一份官方公告,Celsius Network Limited 通过 Blockchain Recovery Investment Consortium, LLC 在美国纽约南区破产法院对 Tether Limited 及其部分关联公司提起诉讼,要求 Tether 返还价值大约 24 亿美元的比特币。

Tether 表示该诉讼中的指控源于 2022 年一项协议,根据该协议,Tether 应 Celsius 的请求向其提供了 USDT。Celsius 将比特币(BTC)作为抵押物提供给 Tether。当比特币价格在 2022 年 6 月开始下跌时,协议要求 Celsius 提供额外的抵押品以避免其比特币被清算。当 Celsius 选择不再提供额外的比特币时,它指示 Tether 清算其持有的比特币抵押物,以关闭其在 Tether 持有的大约 8.15 亿美元的 USDT 头寸。

【推特前董事长指控马斯克拖欠价值超2000万美元的股票】

比推消息,据彭博社报道,当地时间8月9日,Twitter(现更名为X)前董事长奥米德·科德斯塔尼(Omid Kordestani)起诉了这家社交平台公司,声称其拥有者、特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克拒绝兑现拖欠的价值2000多万美元的股票。

科尔德斯塔尼曾在2015年至2020年间担任Twitter执行董事长,并在董事会再任职两年直到马斯克以440亿美元收购该平台。科德斯塔尼在诉状中说,他的大部分报酬是股票,而马斯克拒绝支付这些股票。

Cinneamhain Ventures 合伙人 :加密风投正放缓投资速度,持有BTC/ETH即可获得可观收益等是关键原因】

比推消息,Cinneamhain Ventures 合伙人Adam Cochran在社交媒体上发文表示,风险投资公司对加密货币的投资速度大幅放缓,其中有一个微妙的原因。大多数风险投资公司都有有限合伙人 (LP),而 LP 主要对超越指数基金的回报感兴趣。但从中期来看,仅仅是持有比特币和以太坊的风险回报率就已经可以「轻松击败」指数基金。

这使得风险投资者可以对比特币和以太坊保持观望态度,等待更安全、更有利可图的机会,而不是像在其他行业那样在初创企业上承担那么多早期风险。因为其他市场中并不存在 BTC 或 ETH 那样提供持币收益的资产。

Adam Cochran 表示,在上一个加密周期(2020 年至 2024 年)期间,风险投资公司「似乎很活跃」,希望通过投资「已经爆发」的应用程序与参与者一起暴富。但目前已知的几种叙事(NFTS、AMM 分叉、defi、L2s)都已经走到末路,而下一步该怎么走目前还不太清楚。

【CNBC调查:年轻选民更青睐哈里斯应对经济问题,支持度超过特朗普】

比推消息,CNBC与Generation Lab的一项新调查显示,美国年轻人似乎并不认为哈里斯应该为拜登政府导致的美国经济恶化负责。在拜登7月退出竞选后,69%的18岁至34岁的美国人认为,拜登总统领导下的经济正在恶化。但他们也认为,最有能力改善经济的候选人是事实上的民主党候选人哈里斯,而不是共和党候选人、前总统特朗普。41%的受访者认为哈里斯是经济方面的最佳候选人,而40%的受访者选择了特朗普,19%的受访者表示则选择第三方候选人小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪(Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)。相对于5月份的调查,民主党在经济议题上的支持率上升了7个百分点,当时,只有34%的受访者认为当时可能成为民主党总统候选人的拜登是提振经济的最佳人选,40%的人选择特朗普,25%的人选择肯尼迪。


说明: 比推所有文章只代表作者观点,不构成投资建议

Letture associate

Opinion: Altcoins Might Still Have a Chance, but VC-Backed Coins Are Truly Hopeless

Author: Haotian. Through deep discussions with experienced on-chain investors, a consensus has emerged on survival strategies for the current market cycle: the focus has decisively shifted from "narratives and speculation" to "cash flow and tangible validation." Several key principles are outlined: 1) Prioritize assets with genuine value capture. In a bear market, sustainable protocol fees and a proven record of using them for token buybacks, burns, or dividends are essential. Examples include launchpad tokens like $UNI, $PUMP, $PONS, and the notable buyback token $HYPE. 2) Choose only projects with proven Product-Market Fit (PMF) and a complete operational loop. The next cycle's narratives, likely around "real-world asset tokenization" and the "Agentic Economy," will favor practical validation over technical roadmaps. Projects must demonstrate real users, transaction volume, and revenue. Examples such as $ONDO, $VVV, and $VIRTUAL will be evaluated on metrics like Assets Under Management (AUM) and fee generation. 3) Opt for assets with strong, organically developed "consensus." True consensus is market-driven and survives multiple cycles, not manufactured through marketing. Examples include enduring meme coins like $DOGE, $PEPE, $PEOPLE, or established sector leaders like $ZEC and $TAO, which benefit from resilient communities and sustained liquidity. 4) Avoid purely venture-capital (VC)-backed tokens. Unlike general altcoins which may cycle back, VC coins are seen as particularly problematic. Their typical high Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), low circulating supply, and continuous large unlock schedules often lead to post-unlock sell pressure, especially if the project lacks inherent value capture. This dynamic is a key factor in the current cycle's restrained rallies and deep corrections, discouraging retail participation. *Note: This is a summary of personal discussions. Mentioned tokens are examples only, not investment advice.*

marsbit17 min fa

Opinion: Altcoins Might Still Have a Chance, but VC-Backed Coins Are Truly Hopeless

marsbit17 min fa

Wall Street Morning Report: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Falls Nearly 3%, Nvidia's 'Circular Financing' Concerns Trigger Tech Stock Correction, Optical Communication and Chip Stocks Plunge

Wall Street Morning Report: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell nearly 3%, and concerns over Nvidia's "revolving financing" sparked a tech stock pullback, with optical communications and chip stocks declining sharply. U.S. stocks retreated from record highs on Monday amid geopolitical tensions and AI financing doubts. The Dow fell 0.11%, the Nasdaq 0.32%, and the S&P 500 was nearly flat. Hopes for reopening the Strait of Hormuz dimmed after Trump demanded war reparations from Iran, pushing Brent crude above $87 and WTI above $82. Spot gold broke above $4400/oz. Treasury yields rose, with the market pricing in a ~54% chance of a September Fed hike. The semiconductor and AI infrastructure sectors were hit hard. The Philly Semiconductor Index dropped nearly 3%, with the semiconductor ETF down 2.28%. Optical communication was the worst-performing AI sub-sector, with Coherent plunging over 14%. The sell-off centered on Nvidia, which fell 2.86% on reports it is collaborating with major financial institutions to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure. Market concerns focused on whether this creates a circular financing loop and if future AI facilities can generate sufficient cash flow. Other notable moves: Intel dropped over 4% on a new share offering. Microsoft rose 1.21% on plans for its next-gen Maia 300 chip. The software sector outperformed, with Palantir up 1.85%. Energy stocks rallied nearly 4.7% on geopolitical risks. Key upcoming events include the RBA rate decision on Aug 11 and earnings from Lumentum, CoreWeave, and Super Micro Computer after the close on Aug 12, which will test the real demand for AI infrastructure.

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Wall Street Morning Report: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Falls Nearly 3%, Nvidia's 'Circular Financing' Concerns Trigger Tech Stock Correction, Optical Communication and Chip Stocks Plunge

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