Fundstrat的Tom Lee表示，尽管投资者因“增长恐惧”而苦苦挣扎，但最糟糕的抛售已经结束

币界网Pubblicato 2024-08-11Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-11

币界网报道：

投资老手Tom Lee表示，金融市场最近最糟糕的调整可能已经过去。

在CNBC的一次新采访中，这位Fundstrat创始人表示，他正在研究波动率指数（VIX），这是一种衡量股市预期波动的流行指标。

李表示，波动率指数表明，市场不会看到价格大幅下跌。

“我们正在关注的是，周一波动率指数飙升至60，这是有史以来的第三高读数，波动率指数期货曲线反转，这是自疫情前以来的最大反转。

我认为，随着波动率指数接近20以下，两者都开始正常化……由于波动率指数期货期限结构没有变化，这告诉我们，最严重的恐慌已经过去。

我不认为这意味着我们不会产生连锁反应，因为我们知道有一些被困的多头，伊朗周围仍有一些紧张情绪，以及有多少日元套利交易必须解除，但我认为最糟糕的抛售压力已经过去了。”

上周，李表示，在调整的另一面，当前的市场下跌将看起来像是“增长恐慌”，这描述了投资者对美国经济健康的担忧。

这位投资者表示，每周申请失业救济人数的增加可能是证实市场在不久的将来复苏的一个指标。

“好吧，我认为投资者在谈到增长恐慌方面时，每周都有一些可以检查的东西，那就是每周的失业救济申请，因为这是周四的一个积极惊喜，其中很多来自德克萨斯州。

得克萨斯州的每周索赔人数环比大幅下降。周四，市场对失业救济申请人数反应如此积极，这一事实让我认为这是一个重要的驱动因素，因为我们的申请人数好于预期，然后市场出现了暴跌。

我认为投资者最关心的是增长恐慌。”

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