经济学家Alex Krüger表示,2020年3月的风格复苏可能正在重演——原因如下

币界网Pubblicato 2024-08-08Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-08

币界网报道:

宏观经济学家Alex Krüger并不认为加密货币注定会陷入长期熊市。

在一个新话题中,Krüger告诉他在社交媒体平台X上的17.9万粉丝,在周末价格突然暴跌后,数字资产正面临三种可能的历史情景。

第一种情况发生在2020年3月,当时加密货币价格因冠状病毒而暴跌,但在两个月内恢复,引发了该行业历史上最大的牛市之一。

第二次是在2021年5月,比特币(BTC)在4月份创下历史新高后暴跌了30%以上。加密资产的价格继续下跌,直到7月下旬,该行业在11月扭转了走向新高的道路。

第三次发生在2022年5月,当时Terra生态系统内爆,加密资产价格连续六个月暴跌。

Krüger认为第三种情况是最不可能的,并预测加密货币将遵循第一种选择的快速复苏路径,尽管“预计不会出现2020-21年的疯狂表现”

他还指出,他不认为美国经济正走向衰退,这将进一步推动加密货币价格下跌。

“我们刚刚看到整个世界都经历了加密货币式的杠杆式抛售。就是这样。生活还在继续。除非未来出现衰退,这在目前是可能的,但不太可能。

在这种情况下,这只是第一个样本。这意味着,选择你的阵营:衰退或没有衰退。并采取相应行动。我属于不衰退阵营。将极度关注美国所有就业数据点。我们现在正处于一个“糟糕的经济数据对价格不利”的交易环境中。”

不要错过任何节拍-订阅以直接将电子邮件提醒发送到您的收件箱

检查价格操作

在X、Facebook和Telegram上关注我们

冲浪每日Hodl混合

生成的图像:Midjourney

Letture associate

NVIDIA CPU Advances, China's RISC-V Responds: Semiconductor Deep Dive - Part Four

NVIDIA is set to launch its new Vera AI data center CPU in China as early as August, with high pricing. While this move offers a new option, it highlights China's continued dependence on foreign-controlled Arm architecture. In response, the Chinese semiconductor industry is increasingly turning to RISC-V as a strategic alternative for achieving high-performance computing autonomy. The article explores the concept of the "impossible triangle" in CPU development—balancing prosperity, control, and autonomy—and posits that RISC-V's open-source, modular nature offers a unique path to achieving all three. While RISC-V is already dominant in embedded systems, the focus is now shifting to data centers and AI workloads. China has become a global hotspot for RISC-V development, driven by AI-driven compute demand, supply chain concerns from export controls, cost benefits of open-source, and strong policy support. Multiple Chinese companies have reportedly crossed the key performance threshold of 15 SPECint per GHz, a benchmark for entering the high-performance CPU club. Progress extends beyond single-core benchmarks. Companies are developing complete computing subsystems, including commercial-grade coherent network-on-chip (NoC) technology and server processors with up to 40 cores that strictly adhere to the RVA23 standard to ensure software compatibility. Real-world applications are emerging in areas like video transcoding and edge AI. However, significant challenges remain. The RISC-V ecosystem faces fragmentation, immature toolchains and verification processes, and gaps in single-core performance and energy efficiency compared to mature x86 and Arm architectures. The formidable software moat, epitomized by NVIDIA's CUDA, is a long-term hurdle. In conclusion, while RISC-V cannot immediately replace offerings like NVIDIA's Vera, it represents a viable long-term path for China to develop a self-sufficient, high-performance CPU ecosystem. The journey is acknowledged to be long and arduous, requiring sustained effort to overcome technical and ecosystem challenges.

marsbit3 h fa

NVIDIA CPU Advances, China's RISC-V Responds: Semiconductor Deep Dive - Part Four

marsbit3 h fa

My Coding Betting Dashboard is Profiting, but Polymarket is Truly Not a Good Place for 'Arbitrage'

The author built a custom monitoring dashboard for Polymarket, a prediction market platform, and tested it with $1,600, achieving over 30% returns. However, the core argument is that Polymarket is not a good venue for traditional arbitrage. The dashboard has two main sections: a "Portfolio Dashboard" for tracking active positions with key metrics like total capital, P&L, and a risk-control module using a tier system (T1, T2, T3), and an "Opportunity Watchlist" for monitoring markets. The article details a critical structural trap in binary markets: a bet with a high perceived probability of success still carries a 100% loss risk if wrong. The author's T1/T2/T3 system is designed to manage this by limiting position sizes based on conviction and time horizon, emphasizing that high confidence should not equal high concentration. A key insight is the danger of "pseudo-diversification"—betting on different markets driven by the same underlying variable. The author concludes that Polymarket offers few true low-risk, arbitrage opportunities. It is instead a high-risk environment where wins can create a false sense of mastery, leading to large losses. The platform is better viewed as a training ground for honing judgment through disciplined, framework-driven betting rather than a reliable income source. The tools help transform intuition into structured, rule-based decisions to mitigate the risk of catastrophic errors.

marsbit6 h fa

My Coding Betting Dashboard is Profiting, but Polymarket is Truly Not a Good Place for 'Arbitrage'

marsbit6 h fa

WeChat AI Card Hands-On Guide: Has the AI Shopping Era Arrived?

**"WeChat AI Card" Practical Test Guide: Has the Era of AI Shopping Arrived?** WeChat has officially launched the "AI Exclusive Card," a feature integrated into its Workbuddy AI assistant. This card is designed to handle payments for AI-initiated purchases. Our hands-on test reveals it's not yet a tool for fully autonomous AI shopping, but rather a controlled payment layer for AI agents. The AI Card functions as an isolated sub-wallet within WeChat Pay. Users must bind the card and transfer funds into it from their main wallet. Crucially, every transaction requires explicit user confirmation via smartphone scan; AI cannot spend autonomously. Currently accessible through the Workbuddy agent, the card targets specific digital consumption scenarios: purchasing paid content (reports, data), calling paid APIs/tools, and subscribing to services. Its design prioritizes security and control by separating funds and mandating approval for each payment. We tested a real-world scenario: ordering bubble tea via Workbuddy using a "Meituan Life Assistant" skill. The process encountered multiple hurdles: high "skill" usage costs (exceeding daily free credits), and most importantly, while a payment was successfully initiated, the AI purchased an incorrect product (a mismatched group-buy coupon instead of the desired drink). This highlights the current limitation: the **AI Card only solves the payment step**. The broader challenge lies in the **AI agent's execution chain**—accurately understanding intent, navigating third-party platforms, selecting the right product, and ensuring proper fulfillment. The payment succeeded, but the purchase failed to meet the user's need. In conclusion, the WeChat AI Exclusive Card is a cautious, early-step experiment in AI commerce. It provides a secure, user-controlled payment method for agent interactions but is not yet capable of reliable, end-to-end complex purchases. For now, it's best used for low-value, low-risk digital services with careful user verification at each step. The vision of AI handling complete shopping tasks remains a work in progress.

marsbit8 h fa

WeChat AI Card Hands-On Guide: Has the AI Shopping Era Arrived?

marsbit8 h fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片