STX：牛市大黑马？

金色财经Pubblicato 2024-08-07Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-07

大家好，发掘机会，把握机会，我是你的好邻居挖挖机。风险提示：请遵守国家相关法律法规，本文不构成投资建议

stacks项目启动于2019年，是由美国sec批准通过并以ico形式发行。在2024年4月比特币区块奖励减半，比特币现货ETF正在申请中，BTC绝对是未来的热门话题。在比特币市值不断膨胀的预期下，stacks的重要性日益凸显，STX的价格将也和BTC同向变动。

把比特币“升级”为“以太坊”

stacks项目是一条部署在比特币，通过POX共识机制运行的L2公链，旨在解决比特币拓展性问题赋予比特币defi智能合约NFT等重要功能。比特币作为最大最原始的加密货币之一，一方面拥有超过40%的市占率的超大市值体量，另一方面，比特币的pow算力之高使得其安全性毋庸置疑，但第一代区块链系统总会有拓展性能太弱tps太低的问题。

stacks取长补短利用比特币算力来保护网络安全，他能够把比特币“升级”为“以太坊”，使得其巨大的市值有“用武之地”。（上一轮牛市顶端比特币市值已经超过一万亿美元）。

技术升级

即将到来的Nakamoto升级使得他可以生成sBTC与BTC1:1锚定由此方便比特币在二层网络上的交互，更容易地使用defi等智能合约。小编认为这似乎是比WBTC更好的选择，WBTC终究只是一个过渡方案，只是锚定比特币的ERC20代币。比特币合约交互运行在比特币网络上，这样才足够安全放心。另外针对比特币网络又慢又堵又贵的问题，此次升级将把出块速度调节到5秒一个，大幅增加stacks网络的运行速度，更快的速度更低的成本极大提高了使用体验。

更大的波动性

stacks只有约六亿美元的市值，且流通率超过70%，假设比特币ETF被通过，比特币二层项目鸡犬升天。下一轮牛市比特币市值突破2万亿，乐观估计以比特币5%的市值来估算stacks市值为1000亿美元，STX的涨幅可能超过惊人的一百倍。但这个预测并不具有太高的客观性和合理性，因为智能合约并不是比特币的使命，以太坊生态已经非常完善，比特币合约生态是否有必要这是个值得思考的问题，山寨币投资风险极高，一百倍的收益期望也意味着你失去所有本金的风险。

独特的POX质押奖励

质押STX能够与矿工分得一杯羹。 POX共识机制允许用户质押STX获得预计约9%的年化回报，这个奖励是以比特币形式发放。此外由于STX目前不兼容EVM所以需要使用专用钱包如Xverse等，通过该去中心化钱包你可以完成质押操作，每个质押周期为21天，较为灵活。

总之，STX可能是个潜力极大的项目但也有归零风险，山寨币投资风险极大，请遵守国家相关法律法规，自行深入研究，本文不构成投资建议

Letture associate

SpaceX, AI, and XRP: Why the Next Wealth Transfer Might Be Different?

The article posits that the global economy is transitioning into a new phase of infrastructure investment. Capital, facing slowing traditional growth engines, is flowing towards emerging foundational systems. This includes space infrastructure (exemplified by SpaceX), AI computing power, satellite networks, data centers, and global payment systems. A key driver is a potential new commodity supercycle fueled by industrial demand from these sectors. Concurrently, the role of blockchain is evolving from speculative assets to a critical settlement layer for the future economy. Digital assets like XRP and XLM, focused on payments and interoperability, are highlighted as potential rails for cross-border settlement, tokenized assets, and machine-to-machine (AI Agent) transactions. The narrative connects figures like Ripple's Jed McCaleb to space ventures, suggesting convergence. The argument emphasizes a shift from speculative narratives to utility-driven value. As AI and space commerce generate new economic activity, and regulatory clarity improves, blockchain networks may underpin real-time value transfer. The conclusion urges investors to consider which networks will form the backbone of this integrated next-generation economic infrastructure.

marsbit1 h fa

SpaceX, AI, and XRP: Why the Next Wealth Transfer Might Be Different?

marsbit1 h fa

GPT-5.6 Countdown: Abandon the Illusion of a Single API, Computational Iteration Can't Outpace a Single Page of Compliance

In mid-June, three seemingly independent industry events—the compliance-driven throttling of Fable 5, the open-sourcing of GLM-5.2, and the leaked release timeline for GPT-5.6—are pushing the global AI industry toward a watershed moment. These shifts signal a fundamental restructuring of the industry's underlying logic. First, **"usability" has substantially overtaken "advanced capabilities"** as the primary weight, pushing the global large language model (LLM) supply chain into a "dual-track" phase of controlled closed-source and local open-source coexistence. Second, **the competitive moats of closed-source giants are shifting**. Their technical focus is moving from "language intelligence" toward "spatial intelligence (world models)"—a domain heavily reliant on computing power. Third, faced with常态化 transnational compliance risks, **a "model-agnostic" decoupled design has become a survival necessity for application-layer developers to maintain business continuity.** The article details how Anthropic's Fable 5, despite its advanced engineering feats, was restricted for non-U.S. citizens within 72 hours of launch, highlighting how geopolitical compliance can instantly limit even the most advanced models. In response, the open-source camp, exemplified by Zhipu AI's MIT-licensed GLM-5.2, is gaining market share by offering stable performance improvements and significant cost advantages (up to 70% savings for enterprises), while achieving full adaptation with domestic semiconductor platforms. Meanwhile, closed-source leaders like OpenAI are pivoting. The anticipated GPT-5.6 reportedly shifts focus from language to spatial intelligence and world models, aiming to rebuild a generational gap in areas like 3D understanding, simulation, and industrial design that demand immense compute. The core conclusion is that the LLM supply chain's logic has changed. Enterprises must now evaluate infrastructure based on a composite of technical performance and policy compliance. For developers, complete reliance on a single closed-source API poses unacceptable risk. Implementing a truly model-agnostic architecture—enabling swift switches to compliant, locally deployable open-source alternatives—is no longer just good practice but a fundamental baseline for business continuity.

marsbit2 h fa

GPT-5.6 Countdown: Abandon the Illusion of a Single API, Computational Iteration Can't Outpace a Single Page of Compliance

marsbit2 h fa

Is the 'Token Subsidy War' Among AI Giants Almost Over?

The article discusses the ongoing "token subsidy war" among AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic, questioning whether it's nearing its end. It reveals that current AI subscription prices are heavily subsidized, with some plans offering tokens at up to 70 times the actual cost to attract and retain heavy users, especially developers and enterprises. This strategy mirrors past internet-era subsidy battles, but with a key difference: AI tokens lack "lock-in" effects. Unlike ride-hailing or food delivery apps, users can easily switch between AI providers as APIs become standardized, making it difficult for companies to raise prices post-subsidy. The piece highlights a structural asymmetry in the competition. Giants like Google, with massive advertising revenue, can afford to subsidize tokens indefinitely, akin to using "tokens as a weapon." In contrast, venture-backed companies like OpenAI and Anthropic face pressure to become profitable, especially as they approach IPO. The article cites Google Ventures founder Bill Maris, who suggests Google could slash token prices by 80%, putting immense pressure on competitors. Two potential endgames are presented: the "internet service" model (subsidize, monopolize, then raise prices) and the "utility" model (tokens become a standardized, low-margin commodity like electricity). Given the low switching costs, the latter seems more likely. The competition may not have a single winner but could instead accelerate AI's evolution into a foundational, infrastructure-level technology, akin to a public utility. For now, users continue to benefit from heavily subsidized token costs.

marsbit2 h fa

Is the 'Token Subsidy War' Among AI Giants Almost Over?

marsbit2 h fa

Beyond the Stadium: The Profitable Games Surrounding the World Cup

"Beyond the Pitch: The Profit Game Around the World Cup" The FIFA World Cup transcends being a sporting spectacle, evolving into a massive global arena for speculation and profit-seeking. The 2026 tournament has amplified this dynamic, creating a multi-layered ecosystem of financial opportunism alongside the football. **Prediction markets** have surged into the mainstream. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi saw trading volumes for World Cup contracts soar, attracting new users with their financial trading model and high-profile, chain-based wealth stories that overshadow traditional sports betting in terms of growth and narrative. However, **traditional sportsbooks** remain the dominant force, leveraging established user habits, legal markets, and comprehensive product offerings to handle the vast majority of speculative wagers, with projections suggesting record-breaking betting volumes. Capital markets also react. **"Concept stocks"** in countries like South Korea and Japan experience volatile price swings based on team performance and anticipated fan spending on items like chicken, beer, and viewing parties, effectively becoming a stock market reflecting fan sentiment. The **ticket resale market** has become a sophisticated arena for arbitrage. Prices fluctuate wildly based on team draws and star power, with sellers sometimes listing tickets they don't yet own in a practice akin to short-selling, while FIFA's own "Right to Buy" tokens add another layer of speculative trading. **Collectibles and merchandise** offer another avenue. Panini sticker albums, with their inherent scarcity and nostalgic value, can become high-value collectibles. Limited-edition or locally themed jerseys command significant premiums on secondary markets, and even counterfeit vendors profit from fans' desire for affordable match-day identity. The **cryptocurrency** space has seen a frenzy of speculative, unauthorized World Cup-themed meme coins on chains like Solana. These tokens, often exploiting team names and player imagery, experience extreme pump-and-dump cycles, creating stories of massive gains for a few early entrants and steep losses for many others. Finally, an entire industry thrives on **providing information and tools** to other speculators. Developers create platforms like SeatSidekick to track ticket inventory and prices, while paid Telegram groups and subscriptions sell betting tips and predictions, monetizing the widespread desire for an informational edge. In essence, the World Cup has become a compressed, global laboratory for speculation. While the games determine champions on the field, a parallel, complex network of financial transactions—spanning prediction contracts, bets, stocks, tickets, collectibles, crypto, and information services—settles its own scores in the global market.

marsbit3 h fa

Beyond the Stadium: The Profitable Games Surrounding the World Cup

marsbit3 h fa

Hyperliquid ETF Claim Draws Attention As HYPE Narrative Builds On X

A social media claim has brought attention to Hyperliquid (HYPE) and the growth of its related ETF products. According to a June 20 post on X by AlphaOnChain, three Hyperliquid ETFs launched in May 2026 have collectively amassed $158 million in assets under management, led by a Bitwise fund with $88 million and a 21Shares fund with $66 million. The article notes this claim is from social media and not verified by official issuer data, advising caution. Nonetheless, the report highlights that HYPE is gaining traction as a notable altcoin narrative. Its focus on on-chain perpetual trading and exchange infrastructure places it at the intersection of DeFi and derivatives, attracting traders looking for high-conviction plays beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. The key takeaway is that while social momentum can influence short-term markets, sustainable growth for HYPE would require confirmed demand, liquidity, and continued ecosystem development.

bitcoinist4 h fa

Hyperliquid ETF Claim Draws Attention As HYPE Narrative Builds On X

bitcoinist4 h fa

Trading

Spot

Futures