美股大逃杀!辉达苹果重挫近5%..联准会急安抚:经济没有衰退啊

币界网Pubblicato 2024-08-06Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-06

币界网报道:

近期由于美国失业率攀高,触发预示经济衰退的「萨姆规则」,美股连续几日遭遇重挫,灾情周一更影响日本、韩国以及台湾等亚洲股市。

昨晚美股开盘后继续延续跌势,美股四大指数再受重挫,具体来看:

  • 道琼工业指数:下跌2.6% 或1,033.99,报38,703.27 点

  • 标准普尔指数:下跌3% 或160.23,报5,186.33 点

  • 那斯达克指数:下跌3.43% 或576.08,报16,200.08 点

  • 费城半导体指数:下跌1.92% 或88.31,报4,519.45 点

美股七雄比惨

个股方面,素有美股七雄之称的七大科技巨头跌幅更甚,相继比惨:

  • Alphabet:下跌4.45%,报159.25 美元

  • 苹果:下跌4.82%,报209.27 美元

  • 亚马逊:下跌4.1%,报161.02 美元

  • 微软:下跌3.27%,报395.15 美元

  • 辉达:下跌4.82%,报209.27 美元

  • 特斯拉:下跌4.23%,报198.88 美元

  • Meta:下跌2.54%,报475.73 美元

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另外,芝加哥期权交易所的波动率指数(VIX)也飙涨64.90%,达到38.57,一度创下1990 年以来的最大升幅,表明市场恐慌情绪似乎还在加剧。

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不过加密货币市场方面,比特币反而强弹

Fed 官员:尚未陷入经济衰退

不过,面对如此股灾和市场恐慌情绪,2024 年FOMC 会议票委、旧金山联准会主席戴利昨晚受访时表示,劳动力市场的疲软并不会加剧,联准会(Fed)所面临的风险正趋于平衡:

7 月份的就业数据为我们提供了一些信心,表明我们的通膨正在放缓,但经济尚未陷入衰退。

我不认为劳动力市场的疲软会加剧,下一个就业市场报告是否将反映出相同的趋势,或出现逆转,值得我们密切关注。如果我们仅仅对一个数据点做出反应,那几乎总是错的。

《金融时报》昨日也发布一篇〈Everyone calm down〉的文章,列举经济依然很坚挺的证据,比方说上周五非农就业报告意外显示就业市场大幅放缓,但7 月份因飓风等恶劣天气而无法上班和工作的人就是比较多。

另外,美银证券经纪团队也发布报告表示,Fed 在9 月降息几乎可说是板上钉钉,但并没有必要采取激进的行动:

7 月的失业率上升几乎全部来自于裁员,这表明劳动力市场只是暂时疲软。 8 月的报告中,就业率可能会出现反弹,失业率也可能下降。没有裁员,美国就不会出现经济衰退,而目前的裁员率仍然较低。

降息周期将从9 月开始,每个季度降息25 个基点,直到2026 年中期达到3.25%~3.5% 的终端利率。 50 个基点或以上的激进降息是在紧急情况下进行的,但我们还没到那一步。

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