比特币跌至 66000UNI飙升8%,盘整是“正常”牛市的前兆?值得购买的3种100倍加密货币

金色财经Pubblicato 2024-08-05Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-05

今天的加密货币价格延续了看跌势头,比特币跌至 66,000 美元大关,而 ETH 交易价格跌破 3,500 美元。山寨币主要模仿这种下跌趋势,而UNI飙升 5-8%。

此次暴跌导致加密货币投资者的财富蒸发 1.62 亿美元,多头清算金额达到 1.39 亿美元。 持仓量的下降和现货价格的下降表明,资金从衍生品市场流出。

这轮比特币牛市是一头“水牛”!典型特点:

1、走势美股化,没有独立行情

2、大利好推不动;减半、以太坊ETF、总统候选人持币喊单等大利好都无法引爆行情

3、弱于大科技;对比标普,跟跌不跟涨;走势不及NVDA/META/GOOG/AVGO等

4、被美国宏观数据和美联储态度牵着鼻子走;完全没脾气

5、美国不放水,就牛不起来;欧盟和加拿大等国降息都没反应

BTC 的走势,完全被这些宏观数据控制;在6月6日,7.17万见顶,然后面临利空,破位震荡向下;而标普和纳指缺无视利空,连创新高;一个数据参假的大非农利空和美联储点阵图显示今年只降息一次,就让BTC摇摇欲坠

若CPI是利空,相信现在BTC已经回到6万了,所以说BTC是一只“水牛”

只要美联储不降息,不放水,它就支棱不起来!其他山寨币的境地可想而知,它们是吸BTC血的水蛭!山寨币的瀑布只是配角戏,配合比特币的下跌完成BTC的洗盘;

至于绝大部分币种都是一线解千愁的事,想收复失地只要一分钟,过去所有的下跌都是假象,一个真相是洗人出局。

当下市场:比特币盘整是“正常”牛市的前兆?

BTC在 69,000 美元的水平上处境艰难,自 2024 年 1 月以来,它一直处于阻力位。

今天跌至 66,000 美元区域,价格目前正在测试 50 日移动均线,如果继续跌破跌至 51,000 美元的该水平,价格走势将继续在该牛市旗帜内波动,如果是在这里买入倒值得考虑。

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接下来大家可以看一组数据:

BTC盘整期间焦灼是焦灼了点,从整个区间的走势形态来看,并不是真正意图的下跌,而是在重复一个动作——“洗”

在洗盘的同时看最近的表现,上去又下来,这种完全是在等一个契机,先以时间换空间,走出一个无序行情,为最后的突破做准备。

BTC好不容易打到这个城下了,不会轻易撤兵的,从这个位置撤兵以后再想攻过来难度就要加大,操盘资金就得成几何形式倍增了,这是大势背景所决定的,要击就只有这一击,没有什么退路了。

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值得购买的4种100倍加密货币,有望在 2024 年末飙升!

1.CHZ

CHZ是支持体育迷互动平台 Socios.com 的代币,也吸引了大量鲸鱼投资者。数据显示,持有 1000 万至 1 亿 CHZ 代币的主要投资者已将 1.8 亿代币添加到他们的投资组合中。

此外,一位持有 10 亿无限代币的鲸鱼已获得 14.4 亿 CHZ。Chiliz 的价格在过去一个月上涨了 39%,在过去一周上涨了 25%。

需求的增加和即将到来的活动表明,CHZ 即将迎来更多上涨。

2.AVAX

Avalanche (AVAX-USD) 以经济高效的方式支持去中心化应用程序和智能合约。该项目最近对 Durango 进行了升级,采用了 Teleporter 平台,可实现无缝区块链数据交易所,在短时间内推动 Avalanche 的 AVAX 代币上涨 50%。

在加密货币市场动荡的时期,Avalanche 表现出了韧性。尽管比特币跌至约 71,500 美元,但 Avalanche 在其突破 20 天指数移动平均线方面表现突出。由于该代币最近出现小幅下跌,许多技术专家认为现在是开始建立头寸的时候了。

投资者应将 Avalanche 的子网基础设施视为长期购买和持有此加密的关键原因。但如果近期技术K线走势图表明现在是购买时机!

3.JUP

自今年早些时候推出以来,Jupiter (JUP-USD) 一直是市场上波动性较大的代币之一。作为一个非常早期的基于 Solana 的互换聚合器,Jupiter 已迅速成为 DeFi 巨头。该项目汇集了来自多个 DeFi 平台的流动性,提供高效的代币互换。该项目最近的增长超出了该领域大多数人的预期,Jupiter 一度超过 Umniswap (UNI-USD),成为一段时间内交易量最大的 DEX。

这种趋势肯定有可能继续下去,如果真的如此,这个项目可能会有巨大的上涨空间。但问题是,它肯定是这个名单上最新的选择,因此从几乎每个角度来看,这个项目的风险都增加了。

对于那些寻求进入高增长的去中心化加密货币交易世界的人来说,这无疑是一个投机选择,但它现在是我的首选。

Crypto di tendenza

Letture associate

Rented Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Inflows Is Real Money?

"Rented Conviction: How Much of Bitcoin ETF Flows Is Real Money" The weekly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are often interpreted as a gauge of institutional belief. However, a significant portion of this activity is driven by a hidden arbitrage trade, not directional conviction. The core mechanism is a cash-and-carry arbitrage: traders buy spot Bitcoin (often via ETFs) while simultaneously shorting CME futures to lock in the price difference, or "basis." This delta-neutral trade is essentially an interest rate play. In weekly data, about half the fluctuation in ETF flows can be explained by new short positions added by leveraged funds (hedge funds), with a correlation of 0.70. Bitcoin's price movement in a given week shows no statistical power in predicting these flows. While this arbitrage trade drives weekly *volatility*, it is not the main component of the cumulative *stock*. Of the total ~$55 billion in net ETF inflows, the current net arbitrage position is only about $1 billion. The remainder is steady, directional buying averaging ~$400 million per week, which constitutes the vast majority of the accumulated "mountain" over two years. Thus, ETF flow data overstates the *volatility* of conviction, not its *level*. This arbitrage trade has been unwinding for nearly two years. Leveraged fund short positions peaked at ~$14 billion in late 2024 and have since declined to ~$4.5 billion. When the basis compresses to unprofitable levels, ETF inflows and short positions retreat together. Recent outflows should not be mistaken for a loss of faith but rather the routine unwinding of this rate trade. For Ethereum ETFs, the pattern is weaker. Accounting for staking yield makes the basis often negative, so neither strong conviction buying nor robust arbitrage supports its flows. To interpret ETF flows correctly, monitor the CME basis versus T-bill rates and leveraged fund net shorts. They reveal how much of the next "demand" headline is real. The real, patient buy-and-hold demand is what constitutes the enduring bulk of ETF assets.

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Rented Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Inflows Is Real Money?

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Soaring Over Tenfold Within the Year: The Frenzy Over SK Hynix Leveraged Products

South China Morning Post The leveraged ETF tracking SK Hynix has surged over tenfold year-to-date, fueled by intense market speculation on the memory chip sector. By June 22, the value of the 'South Korea 2x Long SK Hynix ETF' listed in Hong Kong had skyrocketed by more than 1,061% since the start of the year, while its asset size exploded over twenty times from the end of last year. The rally is driven by AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), with SK Hynix recently sampling its next-generation HBM4E product. However, industry professionals warn of significant risks. Leveraged ETFs magnify both gains and losses. During a recent market correction, while the underlying SK Hynix stock fell 19.1%, its double-leveraged ETF dropped nearly 38%. Korean regulators noted that such products could theoretically lose 60% in a single day. Additionally, these ETFs face risks like time decay in volatile markets, liquidity spirals during mass redemptions, and extreme price dislocations from market-making failures, as seen in early June when an ETF moved opposite to its underlying stock. The trading is predominantly driven by retail investors, with institutional capital largely absent due to the products' high volatility. Analysts caution that with the semiconductor sector at elevated valuations and facing geopolitical and supply chain uncertainties, leveraged ETFs pose a substantial threat of amplified losses for uninformed investors.

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Soaring Over Tenfold Within the Year: The Frenzy Over SK Hynix Leveraged Products

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18 Months, Over 50x Surge: KIOXIA's Epic Comeback

KIOXIA, a NAND flash memory giant, staged a dramatic comeback driven by AI demand. After a period of significant losses, a failed merger, and missed HBM opportunities, its 2024 IPO began modestly. However, fueled by explosive demand for AI data storage, its stock price skyrocketed over 50 times within 18 months, making it Japan's most valuable company, surpassing Toyota. Its Q1 FY2026 profit guidance soared 30-fold year-over-year, with 2026 NAND capacity already sold out. Key to its success is its 3D NAND technology, BiCS FLASH. As the inventor of NAND, KIOXIA advanced its technology through generations, reaching over 200 layers by 2023. Key innovations include CBA (CMOS directly Bonded to Array), which separately manufactures control circuits and memory arrays for better performance, and OPS (On Pitch Select Gate) to increase density. The company is now developing high-capacity packages like an 8TB solution stacking 32 dies. Looking beyond NAND, KIOXIA is exploring 3D DRAM with its OCTRAM technology, using oxide semiconductor transistors for ultra-low leakage to reduce power consumption. This fundamental research differs from HBM and represents a long-term bet to extend its 3D expertise from NAND into future DRAM architectures. KIOXIA's story highlights how technological assets and shifting market cycles can rapidly transform a company's fortunes. While questions remain about sustaining growth beyond the current AI boom, its resurgence demonstrates that in semiconductors, being down does not necessarily mean being out.

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18 Months, Over 50x Surge: KIOXIA's Epic Comeback

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Market Trends in U.S. Stocks (June 23): Peak at Listing? SpaceX Loses Over $800 Billion in Three Days, Tech Stocks Experience Severe Internal Divergence

Stock Market Trends (June 23): Did SpaceX Peak at IPO? The company loses over $800 billion in market value in three days as a sharp divergence unfolds within the tech sector. SpaceX's post-IPO decline of over 20%, falling below its first-day close, reflects a swift market repricing. The catalyst is a clear shift in narrative from "AI platform potential" to concerns over rising capital costs, as its $8.57 billion IPO and subsequent $20 billion debt offering are earmarked for acquisitions and refinancing existing bridge loans rather than de-leveraging. While high-valuation tech stocks like Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft faced pressure, Micron surged nearly 7% to a record high following a strategic supply deal with Anthropic for HBM and memory, highlighting robust, tangible demand in AI infrastructure. The broader market saw funds rotate into more defensive industrial and financial names. Macro factors included a dip in oil prices to a three-month low on news of a US-Iran framework deal, though logistical hurdles for resuming full Strait of Hormuz shipments remain. Key events ahead include Nvidia's shareholder meeting, Micron's earnings, and the May PCE inflation data. The latter will be crucial in determining whether the sell-off in high-valuation growth stocks, which appears to have just begun, will persist.

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Market Trends in U.S. Stocks (June 23): Peak at Listing? SpaceX Loses Over $800 Billion in Three Days, Tech Stocks Experience Severe Internal Divergence

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