SignalPlus宏观分析：经济放缓正在发生，美联储应尽快安抚市场

长文源：区块律动Pubblicato 2005-08-24Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-08-05

Letture associate

Expert Opinions Divided Over Upcoming Fed Rate Decision

The upcoming FOMC meeting on July 29, 2026, is expected to keep rates unchanged or raise them by 0.25%, with no chance of a cut, according to CME data. Experts are divided on the outcome. Some, like Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro, advocate for a hike now due to AI-driven demand, rising oil prices from renewed US-Iran conflict, and ongoing trade tariffs. They argue Chair Kevin Warsh is boxed in by his past statements. Others, including James Knightley of ING and a Reuters poll majority, expect a hold, citing weaker-than-expected June inflation and a cooling labor market, but anticipate tightening later in the year. Both scenarios are seen as potentially negative for risk assets like Bitcoin.

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Expert Opinions Divided Over Upcoming Fed Rate Decision

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The Return of the Greenspan 'Conundrum'? Could Walsh Push Long-Term Rates Down by Raising Rates?

A resurgence of the "Greenspan Conundrum" is being discussed as a potential policy option for new Fed Chair Wash. Market logic suggests that by raising short-term interest rates, Wash could strengthen the Fed's anti-inflation credibility, thereby compressing the inflation premium embedded in long-term yields and ultimately lowering borrowing costs like mortgage rates—a key goal of the Trump administration. This theory is bolstered by historical precedent. In the mid-2000s, as then-Chair Alan Greenspan raised the federal funds rate, long-term bond yields and 30-year mortgage rates fell—a phenomenon later termed the "Greenspan Conundrum." Analysts note this reflects forward-looking market pricing, where credible rate hikes can lower inflation expectations and long-term rates. Since taking office in May, Wash has consistently signaled a hawkish stance. Following his recent Senate testimony where he emphasized his independence, the 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply, mirroring the conundrum dynamic. Historical analysis shows new Fed chairs often begin with hawkish moves to establish credibility. While an immediate rate hike this week is not the base case, several FOMC members have hinted at the potential need for further tightening. Even without an immediate move, the prevailing market view is that Wash is systematically building his inflation-fighting credibility, which in itself may be the most powerful precondition for pushing long-term rates lower.

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The Return of the Greenspan 'Conundrum'? Could Walsh Push Long-Term Rates Down by Raising Rates?

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From Hot Storage to Cold Memory: Decentralized Storage in the AI Era's Storage Boom

"From Hot Storage to Cold Memory: Decentralized Storage in the Era of AI Storage Boom" This article explores the divergent market trajectories of AI-driven centralized storage and Web3's decentralized storage. It argues that while AI storage is experiencing a massive revaluation focused on "hot data efficiency" — maximizing computational throughput via technologies like HBM, enterprise SSDs, and sophisticated data pipelines — decentralized storage projects like Filecoin and Arweave are currently sidelined. Their core value proposition lies in "cold data trust," prioritizing data integrity, censorship resistance, and long-term archival over raw speed. The piece details the AI storage architecture, emphasizing its role as a "performance engine" critical for feeding GPUs, contrasted with decentralized storage's focus on serving as a permanent, verifiable ledger for humanity's collective memory. It analyzes the challenges decentralized storage faces, including product-market fit, enterprise readiness, and token economic misalignment, but concludes that its fundamental value in preserving provenance, public datasets, and civilizational archives positions it for potential long-term revaluation as issues of data sovereignty, AI auditability, and historical preservation become more acute. The current market rewards efficiency, but the pendulum may eventually swing back towards trust.

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From Hot Storage to Cold Memory: Decentralized Storage in the AI Era's Storage Boom

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Analyst Announces: Historic Bullish Signal Reappears in the Ethereum Network! Four Major Rallies Observed Previously!

An analyst has declared the re-emergence of a major bullish signal for the Ethereum network. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez states that the MVRV Golden Cross, considered one of the strongest on-chain indicators for Ethereum, has officially formed. According to the analyst, following the four previous instances of this signal, the price of Ethereum surged by 50%, 166%, 74%, and 113% respectively. He highlights this as one of the most optimistic signals for Ethereum on the blockchain. However, it is crucial to remember that while similar signals preceded significant rallies in the past, it does not guarantee the same outcome will occur this time. This information is not intended as investment advice.

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Analyst Announces: Historic Bullish Signal Reappears in the Ethereum Network! Four Major Rallies Observed Previously!

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OpenPayd joins the Fireblocks payment network

OpenPayd, a company providing financial infrastructure for businesses, has joined the Fireblocks Network. This integration gives over 2,400 participants of Fireblocks access to OpenPayd's infrastructure for conducting fiat payments. The Fireblocks Network connects payment systems, blockchains, and stablecoin infrastructure, facilitating services for fund deposits/withdrawals, currency exchange, and international transfers, with total transaction volumes exceeding $14 trillion. Its members include crypto exchanges, fintech firms, banks, payment services, and liquidity providers. Connection to OpenPayd is available via the Fireblocks Console or API. The service supports British pounds, euros, and US dollars, with over 60 additional currencies available upon request. It enables companies to manage payments, liquidity, treasury operations, and reconciliation within a unified workflow. The integration also allows for transfers between fiat currencies and stablecoins, leveraging Fireblocks' security and compliance tools, including support for Travel Rule requirements and cryptocurrency wallet checks.

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OpenPayd joins the Fireblocks payment network

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