未来3个月山寨币表现如何？

币界网Pubblicato 2024-07-23Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-07-23

币界网报道：

DeFi 板块

INST

  • 观点：看涨

  • 理由：新功能的推出使其在 DeFi 竞争中具有优势

预测时间段： 2024 年 7 月 16 日至 2024 年 10 月 16 日

预测时币价： 2.2 美元

预测至今币价表现：下跌 1.36% 

我认为 INST 可能会跑赢大盘，因为加密投资者正在寻找无实际价值代币的代替品，同时 Fluid 的推动可使 Instadapp 的采用和收入增加。

6 至 7 月，因为有实际的收入和实际的基本面，之前表现不佳的 DeFi 代币开始受到加密货币交易员的关注，Instadapp 是其中之一。Instadapp 是一个可以将多个 DeFi 协议聚合到统一智能合约层的平台。Instadapp 团队在今年推出了 Fluid，可将货币市场和 DEX 进行新组合，构建在统一的 Instadapp 流动性层上，使用户能够从抵押品中获得收益并在借款中获得更大的灵活性。

STX

  • 观点：中立

  • 理由：基本面转好，但存在被定义为证券的风险

预测时间段： 2024 年 7 月 15 日至 2024 年 10 月 15 日

预测时币价： 1.88 美元

预测至今币价表现：未明显变化

从 2017 年到 2019 年，Hiro Systems（原名 Blockstack）通过代币销售筹集了 7000 万美元；它于 2019 年通过 Reg A+ 发行进行了首次符合 SEC 资格的公开代币销售，并在此期间分别根据 Reg D 和 S 豁免向认可的投资者和国际投资者出售代币。

在 Stack 过渡到去中心化的转移证明共识机制后，Hiro Systems 于 2021 年 1 月向 SEC 提交申请，称其将不再提供“对 Stacks 区块链的基本管理服务”，以让 STX 摆脱是一种证券的嫌疑。

但 SEC 不同意 Hiro 的声明，并在同年晚些时候对 Stacks 展开了调查。然而，SEC 上周五宣布，其不打算对 Hiro Systems 采取强制执行行动。

我对 Stacks 保持中立态度，尽管 SEC 已确认 Hiro 在其代币销售方面没有违法行为，但公告并未对 STX 是否为证券提供任何明确说明，因此存在重大未解决风险。但从基本面来看，Stacks Nakamoto 升级将把交易等待时间与比特币的 10 分钟区块时间分离开来，以提供更即时的确认，这个利好可能对代币价格产生积极影响。

MPL

  • 观点：看跌

  • 理由：产品竞争力有限，代币通胀加大抛压

预测时间段： 2024 年 7 月 10 日至 2024 年 10 月 10 日

预测时币价： 11.64 美元

预测至今币价表现：上涨 65.64% 

我对 MPL 后续表现不乐观，因为其现金管理产品与其他产品相比采用有限，无抵押贷款可能会像过去多次一样违约，向大量借款人提供的加密担保贷款很可能在市场低迷时被清算，积分计划的激励作用也有限，同时增加的未来代币通胀也会带来抛售压力。

虽然 Maple 自 3 月以来 TVL 几乎增加了两倍，但代币价格较当月高点下跌了 60% 。上涨主要是由针对少数白名单交易者的 BTC 和 SOL 的超额抵押 USDC 贷款推动。

6 月 8 日，在 ETHCC 会议上，Maple 宣布对其“以零售为重点”的产品 Syrup 增加 50% 的积分存款，只需将资产重新存入现有的 Maple 池子中——主要是其回报率最高的高收益担保贷款池。积分奖励来自提案 MIP-009 中批准的 23% 代币通胀，预计将持续下去。可能在今年当 MPL 转换为代币时，接收者能够将其积分转换为未知数量的 SYRUP。

其他板块

BNB

  • 观点：看跌

  • 理由：生态疲软，在美国开展部分业务不足以支撑上涨势态

预测时间段： 2024 年 7 月 19 日至 2024 年 10 月 19 日

预测时币价： 593.54 美元

预测至今币价表现：下跌 1% 

BNB因为 Binance US 获得法院授权批准投资美国国债的消息而上涨，并且自 6 月以来 BNB Chain 链上指标不断下降，缺少使其生态系统持续发展的动力。

7 月 19 日，负责 SEC 诉币安案的法院批准管理 Binance US 的 BAM 管理实体将托管在 BitGo 的企业资产和客户法定资金投资于 1 个月期的美国国债，但前提是没有第三方（包括其他币安实体）参与投资，并且 Binance US 维持足够的储备来兑现法定提款。

虽然通过交易所账户赚取收益的潜力可能会吸引用户使用 Binance US，然后他们可能会被诱惑购买 BNB，但考虑到 Coinbase 已经提供 USDC 收益计划，尚不清楚这一功能是否会吸引加密交易者。

MNT

  • 观点：中立

  • 理由：虽然竞争优势明显，但L2赛道整体压力巨大

预测时间段： 2024 年 7 月 18 日至 2024 年 10 月 18 日

预测时币价： 0.85 美元

预测至今币价表现：上涨 2.85% 

我对MNT的后续表现保持中立 ，虽然 Mantle 有能力与其他 L2 竞争，但行业普遍面临着供应增加带来的估值阻力，Mantle 将需要稀释其代币以实施激励计划。

在 2024 年，MNT 一直是表现最佳的 L2 代币，其表现比 MATIC、ARB 和 OP 等主要竞争对手高出 100% 以上，并且成为分析时年初至今与 ETH 表现基本持平的少数加密货币之一。

与其他 L2 不同，Mantle Network 的独特之处在于它使用 MNT 作为 gas 支付、相对高于竞争对手的流动性和巨额的 25 亿美元流动资金。

尽管 MNT 具有优势，但 L2普遍的都面临着来自持续代币解锁和新代币创建的巨大压力。此外，自 6 月以来 Mantle 生态系统活动减少，随着用户退出生态系统，代币可能会出现反身性，而 Mantle 国库 90% 是 MNT，这意味着当将代币作为激励空投发放时时，会产生抛售压力。

ENS

  • 观点：看跌

  • 理由：代币炒作过高，实际应用未增长

预测时间段： 2024 年 7 月 11 日至 2024 年 10 月 11 日

预测时币价： 26.07 美元

预测至今币价表现：下跌 3.72% 

我认为 ENS 的估值比以往任何时候都要高，而且其缺乏增长将很快推动价格与基本面保持一致。

在做出分析时，ENS 较 5 月份的底部上涨了 90% ，原因可能是 ETH 现货 ETF 可能会获得 SEC 批准。尽管代币价格飙升，但在此期间实际 ENS 使用量急剧下降；7 月 1 日的每周费用跌至仅 19.2 万美元，为 2021 年 7 月以来的最低水平。

将 ENS 作为以太坊上高 beta 收益的猜测已将其代币价格推高至费用的 243 倍，创下有记录以来的最高水平，但不幸的是，维持价格上涨所需的增长未能实现。如果 ENS 的定价与去年 8 月的倍数相同，则代币的交易价格应该为 3.46 美元，比历史低点低 50% ，比分析低 85% 。

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