当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-07-10Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-07-10

Introduzione

“现实是，当你不再相信它时，它并不会消失。” - P. Dick

原文作者：Crypto, Distilled

原文编译：深潮 TechFlow

加密货币 - 顶部是否已经出现？

这是在加密货币社区 (CT) 中的禁忌问题。

然而，忽视它可能代价高昂（这也是为什么大多数人会经历完整的涨跌周期）。

“现实是，当你不再相信它时，它并不会消失。” - P. Dick

以下是为什么顶部可能已经出现以及如何在这种情况下仍然能够繁荣的原因。

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

市场结构的破坏

第一个主要关注点是最近 $BTC 失去了 4 个月的区间。

虽然长期趋势依然完好，但中期趋势已经转为看跌。

Andrew Kang 认为这与 2021 年 5 月的价格走势相似。

（感谢 @Rewkang）

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

潜在的双顶？

伴随着关键支撑位的丧失，周线图上的双顶形态难以忽视。

虽然我不是技术分析专家，但这看起来像经典的自满肩形态（Complacency Shoulder）。

“现货市场很舒适，加密货币是安全的，因为流动性会再次上升” = 共识观点

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

从“忧虑之墙”到“希望之河”

牛市在攀登“忧虑之墙”；熊市则滑落“希望之河”。

这种转变是逐步发生的，通常在事后才能确认顶部。

要评估这种转变，可以分析以下几点：

对正面/负面新闻的价格反应
闲置资本的心理

市场对新闻的反应

在疲软的市场中，好消息被置若罔闻，而坏消息则引起巨大的恐惧。

闲置资本与抄底

散户在没有明确催化剂的情况下盲目抄底是一个值得关注的问题。

随着自满和否认转变为恐慌，市场沿着这条希望之河滑下。

（感谢 T. Livingston）

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

2022 年的技术性反弹

2022 年市场经历了几次技术性反弹，但没有趋势逆转。

理想情况下，你希望看到前方有重大催化剂，同时闲置资本犹豫是否抄底。

相反的情况则预示着危险，正如最近以太坊 ($ETH) ETF 的价格行动所显示的那样。

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

比特币超级周期论

许多山寨币可能已经见顶，但比特币 ($BTC) 可能会进入超级周期。

尽管全球流动性可能激增，但这挑战了山寨币是最快马匹的假设。

一个范式转变可能正在进行，其影响滞后。

（感谢 @Rewkang）

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

比特币与标普 500 的分歧

比特币 ($BTC) 与股票的相关性减弱（4.5 年来最低）可能是一个令人担忧的问题。

大量供应过剩（德国/美国等）可能会推动这种脱钩达到极限。

（感谢 @WClementeIII）

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

类似 2019 年

比特币 ($BTC) 与标普 500 ($SPX) 的分歧类似于 2019 年，当时比特币在 6 月达到顶峰。

花了 12 个月以上才创下新高。

（感谢 @intocryptoverse）

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

大型 AI 公司风头盖过加密货币

也许市场见顶并不是因为加密货币不好，而是因为 AI 更具吸引力。

我们正在看到历史上最单薄的股票反弹（由大型 AI 公司主导）。

尽管获取比特币 ($BTC) 的途径前所未有地好，但散户需求增长缓慢。为什么？

（感谢 @TXMCtrades）

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

最大狂热是否已经过去？

最大的狂热可能已经过去。这一周期可能只是昙花一现。

证据：memecoin 在 2024 年第一季度达到顶峰，此后呈下降趋势。

比特币 ($BTC) 在 2024 年第一季度达到顶峰（巧合吗？）

（感谢 @ki_young_ju）

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

Memecoin 超级周期 = 顶部信号

“memecoin 超级周期”的概念可能是最终的顶部信号。

2021 年也出现了类似的顶部信号，当时有人预测比特币 ($BTC) 会进入超级周期（$ 250 k+ $BTC）。

由于这一周期的幻灭感较少，也许我们更快地进入了 memecoin 狂热。

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

Memecoin 领域的主导地位

首次，memecoin 已成为 CoinMarketCap (CMC) 上最受欢迎的类别。

没有实际应用推动有机需求，山寨币能在投机泡沫中运行多久？

（感谢 @coinmarketcap）

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

通过对冲获利

即使我们可能已经达到顶部，也不意味着所有希望都破灭了。

通过做空弱势山寨币来对冲强势山寨币可能会非常有利可图。

这使你能够从下跌中获利，同时仍然保持市场参与。

（感谢 @GiganticRebirth）

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

比特币主导地位上升

在风险规避的市场中，投资者卖出山寨币换取比特币 ($BTC) 往往会增加比特币的主导地位。

做空弱势的 ALT/BTC 交易对对来捕捉这一趋势可能会非常有利可图。

@intocryptoverse 认为比特币主导地位 ($BTC.D) 到 2024 年第四季度可能达到 60% 。

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

从风投贪婪中获利

要识别那些供应过剩且风投未实现利润巨大的币种。

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

如果四年周期被打破怎么办？

想象一下，如果 2024 年 3 月只是接下来 6-12 个月的峰值？

这还算是周期顶部吗？

鉴于这一周期迄今为止的上涨有限，预期下跌也会较少是合理的。

因为短周期 + 低波动性。

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

宏观顶部尚未出现？

尽管有一些潜在信号，但周期顶部可能还没到（个人观点，仅供参考）。

流动性是最关键的因素，有强有力的证据表明峰值可能会在 2025 年出现。

虽然当前流动性较低，但我们似乎正处于重大转变的边缘

（感谢 @zerohedge）

当你不再相信这是牛市，牛市才不会消失

原文链接

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