【劲爆数据】 BTC酝酿技术反弹,ETH突破10日均线

火必研究院Pubblicato 2022-05-23Pubblicato ultima volta 2022-05-24

Introduzione

主流币低位企稳,反弹预期增强。

1、BTC酝酿低波动反弹

日K线图中,BTC价格在斐波那契61.8%对应的28307美元波动空间收窄以后,价格正处于

短期缩量底部确认过程中。近期BTC反弹空间有限,持币投资者获利空间较小。长期持币投资者的不断出逃,压低了价格上涨的概率。而目前来看,由于长期投资者的抛售持续时间越长,BTC正处在超跌反弹最佳位置。

接下来,关注BTC在28307美元到36077美元价格区间的反弹机会,注意低吸持币。

2、BTC长期投资者亏损出逃

毫无疑问,随着持币时间超过155个交易日的长期投资者继续出售BTC,亏损交易增多意味着抛压在不断减轻。长期投资者亏损卖出BTC,本次的SOPR指标与2020年3月份期间的表现非常一致。SOPR指标低迷,正在不断验证BTC在3万美元附近的低价入市机会。

持币155个交易日以上的投资者中,既然是亏损交易,那么从SOPR数值0.75以下判断,3万美元附近长期投资者的持币成本在4万美元,其亏损才可达25%(1-0.75)。因此,在技术性反弹阶段,近期BTC反弹靠近4万美元的难道较大。除非洗盘充分,并且多头主动入市交易,才可能持续较大涨幅。

3、活跃地址数低迷

BTC活跃地址数非常低迷,5月22日数值下降到了69.3万的低点,同时新增地址数下降到了低点32万。可以确认的是,短期交易热度不能支撑一次强度较大的反转走势。活跃地址数体现了场内投资者的交易热情,低迷的数据在短期难以改观。考虑到活跃地址数已经达到了2022年以来低位,并且有可能在数值上进一步回撤,使得该指标持续2021年以后更弱的市场表现。因此,在确认短线交易机会方面,投资者需要非常谨慎,避免在弱势反弹中亏损。

4、ETH技术反弹进行中

ETH短线反弹期间,价格轻松突破10日均线,体现出相对好的波动特征。也就是说,ETH已经处在10日均线上方,并且随时可能延续反弹表现。接下来,可继续关注ETH在2000美元附近的低吸机会。毕竟,即便2000美元并非真正的底部位置,其低吸机会不容忽视。交易量近期维持低位运行,ETH在2500美元的抛压较大,技术反弹关注2500美元以下的盈利时机。

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Warsh Hearing Concludes: What Are the Notable Signals for the Crypto Industry?

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Warsh Hearing Concludes: What Are the Notable Signals for the Crypto Industry?

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