空头“宁死不屈”,巨额亏损下仍加码押注!

jin10Pubblicato 2024-03-27Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-03-27

空头仍在斥资数十亿美元押注数字货币相关股票的涨势最终将结束,哪怕比特币已带动该板块大幅上涨。

根据S3 Partners LLC本周的一份报告,今年做空数字货币股票的头寸总额已增至近110亿美元,其中80%以上的头寸是做空微策略(MicroStrategy)(MSTR.O)和Coinbase(COIN.O)的。

目前,这些“顽固空头”的账面亏损已达到近60亿美元,因为比特币年初至今上涨65%以上,提振了该板块的整体表现。尽管如此,空头仍在加倍押注下跌。S3公司预测分析部门董事总经理Ihor Dusaniwsky表示:

“数字货币股票卖空者一直在涨势中做空——要么押注比特币涨势回调,要么利用空头头寸对冲实际持有比特币的风险。”

在过去30天里,数字货币相关股票的空头继续增加头寸,尤其是针对微策略公司,即使其股价仍在上涨。交易员已投入9.74亿美元押注这家企业软件制造商将倒闭。根据S3的数据,这足以抵消同期Coinbase、Marathon Digital Holdings Inc.(MARA.O)和Hive Digital Technologies Ltd. (HIVE.O)股票的空头回补数量。

微策略遭做空的股票价值堪比科技巨头

空头头寸已经占微策略股票总流通量的20%以上,使该公司成为美国市场上最受做空的股票之一,与英伟达、微软和苹果等规模大得多的公司相媲美。

当然,如果空头对数字货币相关股票的押注不正确,他们可能会面临更多痛苦。S3报告显示,鉴于微策略、Coinbase和Cleanspark Inc.(CLSK.O) 股价大幅反弹以及可供做空的股票数量有限,许多空头都将面临轧空,也就是被迫买回股票以退出亏损的空头头寸。这会反过来推高做空标的的股价,进一步给其他交易者带来压力。

今年到目前为止,微策略股价上涨了近200%,而Coinbase和Cleanspark分别上涨了约60%和115%。

Letture associate

Soaring Over Tenfold Within the Year: The Frenzy Over SK Hynix Leveraged Products

South China Morning Post The leveraged ETF tracking SK Hynix has surged over tenfold year-to-date, fueled by intense market speculation on the memory chip sector. By June 22, the value of the 'South Korea 2x Long SK Hynix ETF' listed in Hong Kong had skyrocketed by more than 1,061% since the start of the year, while its asset size exploded over twenty times from the end of last year. The rally is driven by AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), with SK Hynix recently sampling its next-generation HBM4E product. However, industry professionals warn of significant risks. Leveraged ETFs magnify both gains and losses. During a recent market correction, while the underlying SK Hynix stock fell 19.1%, its double-leveraged ETF dropped nearly 38%. Korean regulators noted that such products could theoretically lose 60% in a single day. Additionally, these ETFs face risks like time decay in volatile markets, liquidity spirals during mass redemptions, and extreme price dislocations from market-making failures, as seen in early June when an ETF moved opposite to its underlying stock. The trading is predominantly driven by retail investors, with institutional capital largely absent due to the products' high volatility. Analysts caution that with the semiconductor sector at elevated valuations and facing geopolitical and supply chain uncertainties, leveraged ETFs pose a substantial threat of amplified losses for uninformed investors.

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Soaring Over Tenfold Within the Year: The Frenzy Over SK Hynix Leveraged Products

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18 Months, Over 50x Surge: KIOXIA's Epic Comeback

KIOXIA, a NAND flash memory giant, staged a dramatic comeback driven by AI demand. After a period of significant losses, a failed merger, and missed HBM opportunities, its 2024 IPO began modestly. However, fueled by explosive demand for AI data storage, its stock price skyrocketed over 50 times within 18 months, making it Japan's most valuable company, surpassing Toyota. Its Q1 FY2026 profit guidance soared 30-fold year-over-year, with 2026 NAND capacity already sold out. Key to its success is its 3D NAND technology, BiCS FLASH. As the inventor of NAND, KIOXIA advanced its technology through generations, reaching over 200 layers by 2023. Key innovations include CBA (CMOS directly Bonded to Array), which separately manufactures control circuits and memory arrays for better performance, and OPS (On Pitch Select Gate) to increase density. The company is now developing high-capacity packages like an 8TB solution stacking 32 dies. Looking beyond NAND, KIOXIA is exploring 3D DRAM with its OCTRAM technology, using oxide semiconductor transistors for ultra-low leakage to reduce power consumption. This fundamental research differs from HBM and represents a long-term bet to extend its 3D expertise from NAND into future DRAM architectures. KIOXIA's story highlights how technological assets and shifting market cycles can rapidly transform a company's fortunes. While questions remain about sustaining growth beyond the current AI boom, its resurgence demonstrates that in semiconductors, being down does not necessarily mean being out.

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18 Months, Over 50x Surge: KIOXIA's Epic Comeback

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Market Trends in U.S. Stocks (June 23): Peak at Listing? SpaceX Loses Over $800 Billion in Three Days, Tech Stocks Experience Severe Internal Divergence

Stock Market Trends (June 23): Did SpaceX Peak at IPO? The company loses over $800 billion in market value in three days as a sharp divergence unfolds within the tech sector. SpaceX's post-IPO decline of over 20%, falling below its first-day close, reflects a swift market repricing. The catalyst is a clear shift in narrative from "AI platform potential" to concerns over rising capital costs, as its $8.57 billion IPO and subsequent $20 billion debt offering are earmarked for acquisitions and refinancing existing bridge loans rather than de-leveraging. While high-valuation tech stocks like Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft faced pressure, Micron surged nearly 7% to a record high following a strategic supply deal with Anthropic for HBM and memory, highlighting robust, tangible demand in AI infrastructure. The broader market saw funds rotate into more defensive industrial and financial names. Macro factors included a dip in oil prices to a three-month low on news of a US-Iran framework deal, though logistical hurdles for resuming full Strait of Hormuz shipments remain. Key events ahead include Nvidia's shareholder meeting, Micron's earnings, and the May PCE inflation data. The latter will be crucial in determining whether the sell-off in high-valuation growth stocks, which appears to have just begun, will persist.

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Market Trends in U.S. Stocks (June 23): Peak at Listing? SpaceX Loses Over $800 Billion in Three Days, Tech Stocks Experience Severe Internal Divergence

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Interview with MicroStrategy CEO: Beyond the 32 BTC Selling Stir, 6 Trillion AI Agents are the Ultimate Endgame for Bitcoin

Interview with Strategy CEO: Beyond the 32 BTC Sale, 6 Trillion AI Agents are Bitcoin's Ultimate Endgame Strategy CEO Phong Le discusses the recent sale of 32 BTC, clarifying it was a minor, strategic move to demonstrate operational liquidity and internal process robustness to creditors and rating agencies, not a reaction to market fears. He emphasizes Strategy's disciplined, data-driven decision-making framework involving its board and complex financial modeling, distancing the company from centralized "black box" operations seen elsewhere in crypto. Le outlines the company's resilience and long-term focus, citing the "doing nothing" strategy during the 2022 bear market as a testament to its conviction in Bitcoin's underlying value proposition for global sovereignty and freedom. He reveals that generative AI was instrumental in developing their Stretch (STRC) preferred stock product, cutting development time from years to months. The most visionary part of the discussion centers on Agentic AI. Le envisions a future with 6 trillion autonomous AI agents conducting commerce, particularly in off-world environments like Mars, which would naturally adopt decentralized crypto rails and seek yield-bearing assets like Bitcoin as a core store of value. Finally, Le addresses the STRC product, expressing confidence it will return to its $100 par value through reserve replenishment and the initiation of dividend payments, and dismisses concerns about competition with stablecoins. He concludes by affirming Strategy's philosophy of expanding Bitcoin access through all available means, from self-custody to ETFs, to onboard the next wave of users.

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