SignalPlus宏观分析(20240318)：经济数据疲软，加密市场开启回调

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-03-18Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-03-18

Introduzione

上周市场结束在资产表现与通胀压力分歧不断加剧的情况下，本周即将迎来FOMC会议。在加密货币方面，价格在过去72小时内经历了痛苦的调整，BTC现货在周末从约7.3万美元跌至约6.5万美元，使得相当多的多头和抄底买家被迫出场。

上周市场结束在资产表现与通胀压力分歧不断加剧的情况下，本周即将迎来 FOMC 会议，尽管华尔街大多预期美联储会在点阵图中位数仍有 3 次降息的情况下“鸽派按兵不动”，但预计问答环节将充满针对高于预期的通胀以及宽松金融形势的问题，给主席带来一定的压力。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240318)：经济数据疲软，加密市场开启回调

除了 FOMC，本周将会有许多其他央行会议，以日本央行/美联储/英国央行/澳洲央行为首，超过 10 家央行将进行货币政策决议。市场普遍的共识是，大多数央行无论行动为何，都会保持鸽派立场，而考虑到日本央行可能会退出长期的负利率/收益率曲线控制政策，其决议可能会是最有区别的。

本周央行会议日程异常繁忙 (Credit: Citi)

日本央行 | 取消负利率政策是有可能的，但风险倾向鸽派

FOMC | 按兵不动，风险在于点阵图预测

瑞士央行 | 降息 25 个基点比定价反映的更有机会

挪威央行 | MPR 预测的风险稍微倾向鸽派

英国央行 | 在投票和指引中存在鸽派风险

澳洲央行 | 指引存在鸽派风险

巴西央行 | 降息 50 个基点，预测和前瞻指引调整偏向鹰派

捷克央行 | 降息 50 个基点 vs 75 个基点，我们更倾向前者

墨西哥央行 | 降息 25 个基点，开始宽松周期

哥伦比亚央行 | 降息加速至 50 个基点

土耳其央行 | 有加息风险，但我们认为可能性不大

加拿大央行 | 央行评论存在轻微的鹰派风险

中国人民银行 | 1 年期 / 5 年期 LPR 利率不变

Source: Citi

上周五美国经济数据疲软，纽约联储制造业指数大幅低于预期（-20.9 vs 前值 -2.4），就业和支付价格都大幅弱于预期。密大消费者信心指数较前几个月也略有下降，通胀预期稳定维持在 3% 左右，仍远高于美联储的长期目标。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240318)：经济数据疲软，加密市场开启回调

交易员在年初至今的疯狂上涨后部分获利了结，股市上周五由科技股领跌，收盘走软。此外，上周五也出现大规模的期权到期，超过 4.5 万亿名目金额的股指、ETF 和单一股票期权滚仓，在三巫日结束前，市场基本被风险重新分配以及 Delta 对冲主导。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240318)：经济数据疲软，加密市场开启回调

然而，尽管遭遇小幅回调， 3 月仍将成为一个创纪录的月份，投资者在 3 月前两周向股市投入创纪录的 560 亿美元（其中 220 亿美元投向科技股），市场集中度（以市值计算）正走向 1932 年以后从未见过的极端水平。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240318)：经济数据疲软，加密市场开启回调

然而，投资者（和策略分析师）对集中度风险仍相当淡定，因为集中度上升的同时，也伴随著获利相对于一般股票的大幅跃升。由于科技股占 SPX EPS 最大份额，股价的上涨“仅仅”将远期市盈率提升至 28 倍，仍低于 1999 年和 2021 年“泡沫”时期的高点，分别为 52 倍和 43 倍。虽然从绝对价格上来看无疑是昂贵的，但考虑到 AI 无处不在的巨大影响力，投资者觉得别无选择，只能“支付溢价”以取得 AI 大型股的敞口。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240318)：经济数据疲软，加密市场开启回调

在加密货币方面，价格在过去 72 小时内经历了痛苦的调整，BTC 现货在周末从约 7.3 万美元跌至约 6.5 万美元，使得相当多的多头和抄底买家被迫出场。如我们先前所提的，近期的狂热似乎已经有些过度，altcoin / memecoin 都出现一些超过极限的迹象。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240318)：经济数据疲软，加密市场开启回调

在 BTC 以外，ETH 仍在与其他主要 EVM 和 L1 链的比较中挣扎，特别是 Solana / Avalanche / TON。随著 ETH 基础叙事在各种 L2 的关注下受到排挤，人们的注意力也被分散到了 EVM 竞争对手蓬勃发展的网络活动（体现在 memecoins 和 non-ETH ETSs）以及即将到来的 Telegram 股票 IPO（支持 TON 代币）。而美国 SEC 不批准 ETH ETF 则是另一个不可忽视的风险，对于这个 TradFi 前宠儿，我们在短期内仍建议保持谨慎。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240318)：经济数据疲软，加密市场开启回调

最后，JPM 提出了一个有趣的观察，BTC ETF 的资金流入是以黄金 ETF 的资金流出作为代价，这与 Bitcoin 长期以来被称为“数字黄金”相符，尽管如此，黄金现货仍与加密货币和股票一起同创新高，尽管回报率没那么惊人。如果股市和加密货币在今年剩余时间内出现风险回调，现货黄金会被证明是安全避风港吗？此外，早在 1980 年代初、 2007 年和 2020 年，黄金和股市同时触及周期高点，随后市场都面临重大的风险回调事件，历史会再次重演吗？绝对值得我们继续关注...

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240318)：经济数据疲软，加密市场开启回调

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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Letture associate

BTC Market Pulse: Week 26

Bitcoin's market activity has cooled as it consolidates after a strong recovery. Spot trading volume has decreased, and order flow has shifted to net selling. While price momentum remains constructive, institutional demand has softened, evidenced by continued net outflows from US spot ETFs and lower on-chain transfer volumes. Derivatives markets show a cautious stance. Futures open interest is stable, but declining perpetual buying pressure and a rise in demand for downside protection indicate a more defensive trader posture. Beneath the surface, supply dynamics remain supportive. Supply is increasingly held by long-term holders, profitability is high, and realized gains are increasing. A slight rise in active short-term capital could lead to higher volatility. Overall, Bitcoin is range-bound. Fading momentum and moderated participation are balanced by resilient holder behavior, stable futures positioning, and healthy profitability, creating a foundation that awaits the next major market catalyst.

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Infamous MEV Bot JaredFromSubway Drained For $7.5 Million

The notorious Ethereum MEV bot "JaredFromSubway" has been drained of approximately $7.5 million after attackers tricked its automated system. Security firm Blockaid reported that the bot was deceived into approving malicious trading routes by attacker-controlled contracts. These approvals were then used to siphon WETH, USDC, and USDT from the bot's contract. The incident is ironic as MEV bots are designed to exploit minute market advantages, but in this case, its own automation became the vulnerability. The attack specifically targeted the bot's trading logic, not the Ethereum protocol or a broader DeFi application. It underscores a critical risk in automated trading: the pursuit of speed can create fragility, making systems susceptible to carefully crafted traps. While the financial loss is significant, the broader impact is reputational for MEV infrastructure. It serves as a warning that automated systems granting token approvals require stringent safeguards, simulation, and route verification. The event is considered a targeted exploit on a trading bot, not a network-wide security issue.

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Infamous MEV Bot JaredFromSubway Drained For $7.5 Million

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Report Interpretation: J.P. Morgan Details Micron's Pre-Earnings Sentiment, Current Hardware Sector Dynamics

Morgan Stanley analyst Joshua Meyers' report (June 21, 2026) highlights key trends in the hardware and semiconductor sector ahead of Micron's earnings. The core takeaways are: 1. **Micron & Memory:** Memory remains a high-conviction long theme, driven by strong AI demand and rising ASPs. However, investor focus is shifting to the sustainability of Micron's >80% gross margins and the specifics of potential new long-term supply agreements (SCAs). 2. **Hardware Supply Chain:** AI-related demand for servers, networking, and storage remains robust, but company performance is diverging. Celestica (CLS) shows improved margin confidence, Western Digital and Seagate benefit from pricing, Fabrinet (FN) sees predictable AI optics growth, and Teradyne (TER) anticipates a new Google customer. 3. **AI Capex & WFE Forecasts:** JPMorgan increased its Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market growth forecasts to 28% in 2026 and 29% in 2027. AI infrastructure financing is evolving, with higher project-level debt reducing constraints on capex expansion. The report signals that while the AI-driven hardware cycle is strong, the market is entering a phase focused on execution verification (e.g., Micron's SCA details, Fabrinet's ramp with Amazon) and valuation sustainability. Key near-term signals include Micron's guidance, Arista Networks' outlook, and the pace of demand normalization post potential tariff-related pull-ins.

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Report Interpretation: J.P. Morgan Details Micron's Pre-Earnings Sentiment, Current Hardware Sector Dynamics

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Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

Report Analysis: Federal Reserve's New Chair Debut – A New Captain, But the Same Script? Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth B. Carpenter analyzes the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in a June 21 report. Warsh deliberately avoided providing forward guidance on interest rates, aligning with his philosophy. However, market expectations for a rate hike this year were reinforced. Key signals lie elsewhere: inflation may fall more than expected, and quantitative tightening (QT) could be more aggressive than anticipated. The FOMC's "dot plot" suggests only one rate hike in 2026. Carpenter argues that if inflation undershoots forecasts, the logic for even a single hike weakens, especially as projections indicate potential rate cuts in 2027. On QT, Warsh's stance is clear. Carpenter notes that measures like halving the Treasury's account balance could shrink the Fed's balance sheet by around $500 billion with minimal market impact. Combined with adjustments to reserve interest and liquidity rules, the ultimate QT scale may exceed expectations, though its market effect might be less disruptive unless the Fed actively sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). While Warsh initiated a review of the Fed's policy framework, the 2% inflation target remains intact for now. The report concludes that the market may be overestimating the significance of reduced forward guidance and the near-term rate hike risk, while potentially underestimating the scope and manageable nature of the coming balance sheet reduction. The key debates will hinge on upcoming core PCE data, the specifics of the QT path, and the framework review's findings.

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Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

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Critical Game Week: BTC Retracement Confirmation vs. HYPE Support Battle | Guest Analysis

This weekly analysis outlines a critical juncture for BTC and HYPE markets, focusing on key price level confirmations. **BTC Analysis:** BTC is at a pivotal point after a five-wave rally from the June 5th low of $59,100. The price has broken below a short-term rising channel's lower boundary, with the current move seen as a pullback to test this breakdown. Failure to reclaim this level could lead to a retest of the $59,000-$60,000 support zone. The core scenario hinges on this channel retest outcome. * **Key Levels:** Resistance at $64,500-$65,000 (channel boundary) and $69,500-$70,500. Support at $59,000-$60,000 and $55,000. * **Strategy:** A core bearish stance is maintained (20% short from last week), with short-term plans for tactical trades. Three detailed contingency plans (A/B/C) are provided for short positions on resistance tests or breakdowns, emphasizing strict stop-loss discipline. **HYPE Analysis:** HYPE shows strong momentum but is currently in a corrective phase after hitting a new high of $76.94. The price is retesting the crucial $64-$66 support area. * **Key Levels:** Resistance near $77 and $80-$82. Support at $64-$66 and $52-$54. * **Strategy:** The short-term approach is "buy on dips, avoid chasing rallies." A long position is considered only if clear stabilization signals appear at the $64-$66 or deeper $52-$54 support zones, with tight risk controls. **General Risk Management:** A standardized trailing stop-loss protocol is emphasized: set initial stop, breakeven at +1% profit, then trail stops upward to lock in gains. *Disclaimer: All analysis is presented as a personal trading framework, not investment advice. Market conditions are complex and require dynamic adjustment.*

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Critical Game Week: BTC Retracement Confirmation vs. HYPE Support Battle | Guest Analysis

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