泡沫”警告突然疯传,比特币暴跌下破6.7万美元

金十Pubblicato 2024-03-15Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-03-15

截至周五上午11:27,比特币日内大跌5.00%,盘中下破6.7万美元,此前一天曾创下近73798美元的历史峰值。今年迄今为止,比特币和前100种代币(包括Ether、BNB和Solana等)的指标均上涨了约60%。

过去几个月,押注美联储将放松货币政策的行为,帮助推动了全球股票、债券和加密货币的强劲反弹,但在最近有证据显示美国通胀压力持续存在后,投资者正在重新评估这种押注。

美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett表示,在科技行业所谓的“瑰丽七股”创纪录的飙升和加密货币的历史新高中,市场正显示出泡沫的特征。

截至周五11点50分,比特币15分钟走势图

这些言论引发了关于许多资产是否容易受到回调影响的争论。对于比特币,支持者指出,大约116亿美元净流入了现货比特币ETF,以及因“减半”事件,比特币供应即将放缓,这是基本面支撑。

周四公布的美国2月PPI录得大幅上涨引发了人们的担忧,市场担心美联储控制通胀的行动远未结束。IG市场分析师Tony Sycamore表示,比特币受到了美国国债收益率和美元在PPI数据回升后上涨的影响。

此外,以Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou为首的摩根大通分析师周四写道:“我们认为,Micro Strategy以债务融资的比特币购买行为增加了当前加密货币涨势的杠杆和泡沫,并增加了未来潜在低迷时期更严重去杠杆化的风险。

据摩根大通称,Micro Strategy今年已购买了10亿美元的比特币,第四季度也购买了10亿美元。Micro Strategy的创始人Saylor此前解释说,为了获得购买比特币所需的资金,该公司使用了杠杆。

比特币涨势中的杠杆过多也引发了其他评论员的担忧。Galaxy首席执行官兼加密货币爱好者Mike Novogratz表示:“我认为目前市场杠杆过高。将会有一场洗牌,人们无法承受这么大的杠杆。”

与此同时,在模因币领域,一些人对最具投机性的代币的狂热仍在继续。据追踪公司CoinGecko的数据,Dogwifat股价在过去一天上涨了20%以上。模因币的总市值已经上升到600多亿美元,区块链数据公司Kaiko的数据显示,头部模因币的周交易量接近800亿美元,交易量是自2021年底以来的最高水平。

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Morgan Stanley analyst Joshua Meyers' report (June 21, 2026) highlights key trends in the hardware and semiconductor sector ahead of Micron's earnings. The core takeaways are: 1. **Micron & Memory:** Memory remains a high-conviction long theme, driven by strong AI demand and rising ASPs. However, investor focus is shifting to the sustainability of Micron's >80% gross margins and the specifics of potential new long-term supply agreements (SCAs). 2. **Hardware Supply Chain:** AI-related demand for servers, networking, and storage remains robust, but company performance is diverging. Celestica (CLS) shows improved margin confidence, Western Digital and Seagate benefit from pricing, Fabrinet (FN) sees predictable AI optics growth, and Teradyne (TER) anticipates a new Google customer. 3. **AI Capex & WFE Forecasts:** JPMorgan increased its Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market growth forecasts to 28% in 2026 and 29% in 2027. AI infrastructure financing is evolving, with higher project-level debt reducing constraints on capex expansion. The report signals that while the AI-driven hardware cycle is strong, the market is entering a phase focused on execution verification (e.g., Micron's SCA details, Fabrinet's ramp with Amazon) and valuation sustainability. Key near-term signals include Micron's guidance, Arista Networks' outlook, and the pace of demand normalization post potential tariff-related pull-ins.

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Report Interpretation: J.P. Morgan Details Micron's Pre-Earnings Sentiment, Current Hardware Sector Dynamics

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Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

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