2026 Death List: Games Are Dead, DeFi Is Dead, Tools Are Dead, Who's Next?

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2026-03-04Pubblicato ultima volta 2026-03-04

Introduzione

"Death List 2026: A Quiet Mass Extinction in Crypto" The crypto market is experiencing a wave of silent shutdowns in early 2026, with over 10 Web3 projects ceasing operations within 90 days. Unlike dramatic collapses of the past, these projects are dying quietly, often with a simple announcement before servers go dark. Key failures span major sectors: - **Play-to-Earn Games**: GENSO Online is closing with monthly costs 5x its revenue. Pixiland abandoned its Web3 plans and token generation event (TGE), and Forgotten Runiverse went offline indefinitely due to broken funding. - **DeFi Protocols**: ZeroLend, once a leading L2 lender with $250M TVL, is honorably shutting down after suffering from fragmented liquidity across multiple chains and the withdrawal of oracle support. Polynomial canceled its TGE, admitting its product was in a "decaying state." Step Finance collapsed after a $40M hack originating from a compromised executive's device. - **Infrastructure & Tools**: Parsec, a well-funded on-chain analytics tool, failed to compete against giants like Dune and Nansen and shut down after 5 years. ENS scrapped its Layer 2 Namechain because Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade slashed mainnet gas fees by 99%, making the L2 unnecessary. Common themes behind the failures include a fundamental lack of sustainable revenue, the trap of unsustainable multi-chain expansion, and security failures that are often human, not technical. The industry is seeing a brutal consolidation of capital towar...

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Ethan (@ethanzhang_web3)

The crypto market is never short of deaths, but the way things die in 2026 is different.

Projects used to die dramatically: explosions, runaway founders, disappearing teams, always causing uproar on social media, always a spectacle worth watching. But in less than 90 days since the start of 2026, Odaily Planet Daily has noted that over 10 Web3 projects have publicly announced they are ceasing operations—their disappearances are unusually quiet: an announcement, servers shut down, funds run out, and then nothing.

Games, lending protocols, on-chain tools, infrastructure—almost every major sector has seen projects stall during this period, with a suspension notice appearing on the timeline on average every 9 days. This density feels more like a long-overdue collective reckoning than a normal market clearing. Below are some cases compiled by Odaily Planet Daily.

List of Suspended Projects

Games & Metaverse: The Collective Collapse of Play-to-Earn

GENSO Online

On February 26, 2026, the highly anticipated fantasy RPG GENSO Online regrettably announced it would shut down all core services by April 30, 2026, including game servers, the GENSO market, LAND Viewer, and the exclusive MV wallet.

The team disclosed in an AMA: Even after a series of downsizing自救 measures, the project's monthly fixed expenses still reached as high as 10 million JPY. Among these, cloud infrastructure (3.4 million JPY) and人力成本 (3 million JPY) were the largest items, while maintaining secondary market liquidity through listing maintenance and ROND token buybacks even consumed 1.3 million JPY.

In comparison, the total monthly revenue, including market fees, in-app purchases, and advertising, was only about 2 million JPY. Expenses were a full five times revenue, with no signs of narrowing. Under this极度失衡的现金流, although player-held NFTs and tokens (like MV and ROND) will remain on-chain, their value is濒临归零 as the game's utility is lost. The官方 also clearly stated that, according to the terms of service, no refunds will be provided. This experiment试图用 Web3 赋能传统游戏 was ultimately crushed by server bills.

Pixiland

On January 15, 2026, after struggling for two years on the Ronin ecosystem, the pixel strategy game Pixiland made a difficult and painful decision: to indefinitely suspend all Web3 plans and transition to a pure Web2 offline model. This means its Token Generation Event (TGE) was completely canceled. What made the community even more heartbroken was that the wPixi points players had accumulated day and night by "farming" for airdrops will never be converted into real crypto assets.

The team坦言, as an independent, self-funded small team, under the双重挤压 of drastic market fluctuations and regulatory uncertainty, the cost of maintaining on-chain infrastructure and interaction had far exceeded their承受极限. "Reverting to Web2" became a无奈之举 for断臂求生 for current Web3 games facing high trial-and-error costs.

Forgotten Runiverse

Similarly relying on the Ronin network's traffic红利, the fantasy MMORPG Forgotten Runiverse announced on January 27, 2026, that it would go offline indefinitely.

The official announcement委婉地归结 the suspension to "compound financial challenges"—frankly, a complete breakdown of the funding chain. Lacking sustainable造血能力, the team could no longer afford the most basic operational costs of maintaining the game. Although the official wording maintained the体面 of "may restart in the future if resources are obtained," in the industry's view, this "indefinite offline" has actually become the standard exit strategy for mid-sized game projects when funds are exhausted.

DeFi Lending & Derivatives: Liquidity Recedes, Who's Swimming Naked

ZeroLend

On February 17, 2026, ZeroLend, once seen as the leading lending protocol on Layer 2, announced it was entering an "honorable wind-down" phase, gradually ceasing out operations. There was a time when ZeroLend was immensely popular, with its Total Value Locked (TVL) once breaking $250 million, over 100,000 daily active users, and absolute dominance in ecosystems like zkSync and Linea.

However,盲目扩张最终反噬了自身. As early supported chains like Manta, Zircuit, and XLayer fell into生态衰退, the multi-chain strategy brought not scale effects but severely fragmented liquidity. Large amounts of assets were trapped in low-liquidity environments, becoming难以维护的“僵尸资产”. More致命的是, oracle service providers terminated their support, directly draining the pricing and liquidation foundation of the lending protocol. Coupled with the extremely thin profit margins of the lending market and the long-term threat of hacker fraud, the protocol fell into irreversible long-term losses.

Facing an unsolvable dilemma, ZeroLend chose a rare体面退出 in the industry: directly lowering the LTV (Loan-to-Value) ratio of most markets to 0%, forcibly closing borrowing functions, and only retaining withdrawals to guide users to safety. For the problem of枯竭 liquidity on some chains, the team conducted asset redistribution through smart contract upgrades; they even used the team's allocated LINEA airdrop份额 to provide partial refunds to LBTC suppliers on the Base chain. A three-year operation最终落幕 with a textbook "dignified shutdown."

Polynomial

On February 14, 2026, the DeFi derivatives protocol Polynomial, which had received a $1.1 million seed round investment from知名机构 like Archetype and the founder of Synthetix, announced an orderly wind-down of its business.

The team stated that although the on-chain derivatives market had grown 100-fold in recent years, and the赛道方向 was completely correct, their execution层面却严重未达预期. After evaluating the残酷现实 that their product had fallen into a "state of decay", the team decided to: actively call off the TGE originally planned for Q1 2026.

The team believed that强行发币 with an uncompetitive product was a worthless冒险 and simply transferring risk to the community. Instead, they chose to规范地清退资金 and systematically analyze the accumulated 27 million transaction data points from the past to find a true product moat. They promised that the project would be restarted by the original team when conditions were ripe, with priority given to old users. This attitude of "no harvesting, no lying flat" preserved a rare bottom line for Web3 entrepreneurs.

Step Finance

On February 24, 2026, Step Finance, a veteran DeFi platform on Solana that had received a $2 million investment from机构 like Alameda Research, along with its subsidiaries SolanaFloor and Remora Markets, announced an immediate and complete cessation of operations.

What broke this生态老将 was not a competitor, but an extremely basic yet致命运维安全 (OpSec) error. In late January 2026, a senior executive's personal device at Step Finance was compromised by hackers, directly leading to the theft of approximately $40 million in巨额资产 from the treasury. In the following weeks, the team tried every possible自救手段, seeking financing and acquisitions everywhere, but in this already liquidity-tight market, no one was willing to take on such a badly damaged project with such a huge security漏洞. All attempts failed.

Although the team eventually recovered about $4.7 million in related assets and promised partial buybacks for STEP holders based on a pre-incident snapshot, as well as initiating redemption processes for Remora rTokens (which still maintain 1:1 asset backing), this still could not挽回大局. One compromised personal computer instantly destroyed a project built over years, becoming the most惨烈注脚 for deaths due to internal mismanagement in the 2025-2026 Web3 space.

MilkyWay Protocol

On January 15, 2026, MilkyWay, a liquid staking protocol on the Celestia ecosystem, announced it was permanently shutting down and beginning a phased wind-down of operations.

MilkyWay's failure is a classic story of "poor execution" and "dragging itself to death." The project initially positioned itself in the Celestia modular ecosystem,切入 the liquid staking赛道, and successfully secured a $5 million funding round led by Binance Labs and Polychain in April 2024. However, the team's execution能力出现了严重脱节: the V1 launch and MILK token, originally scheduled for Q4 2023, were severely delayed until the second half of 2024 or even early 2025.

In the fast-changing Web3 market, being late is almost equivalent to being out. When the flagship product WayCard was finally slowly launched, it had long missed the early traffic红利期 of the Celestia ecosystem. Facing lower-than-expected actual demand and adoption rates, the protocol, relying solely on retaining 10% of liquid staking fees, simply could not generate enough cash flow to support the high daily operations. Ultimately, even $5 million could not save it from资金枯竭. As a final farewell, the team returned the fees (USDC) previously accumulated by the protocol proportionally to eligible MILK token holders,黯然退场.

Infrastructure & Tools: Some Lost to Competition, Some to "No Longer Needed"

Parsec

On February 20, 2026, the on-chain analytics tool Parsec regrettably drew a close to its five-year entrepreneurial journey. The team announced the cessation of all services and began processing refunds and subscription cancellations for users.

This was once a star project born with a "golden key". Parsec launched in early 2021, on the eve of the DeFi and NFT frenzy, aiming to provide users with highly customizable on-chain data visualization dashboards. With its product理念 that hit the pain point, it successfully secured a total of $5.25 million in seed and extension funding from top-tier institutions like Galaxy Digital, Polychain Capital, Robot Ventures, and Uniswap Ventures.

However, Parsec's lifecycle恰好跨越 a complete cycle from extreme狂热 to a prolonged deep bear market. When the tide receded and on-chain speculative activity plummeted, the demand from ordinary users for complex on-chain data analysis tools also saw a cliff-like decline. More致命的是, it was in a red ocean赛道卷到极致. Facing Dune's community ecosystem, Nansen's smart money labels, Arkham's intelligence bounties, and DeFiLlama's free comprehensiveness, Parsec始终未能建立起不可替代的护城河.

In 2026, with venture capital tightening comprehensively, infrastructure projects without sustainable cash flow造血能力 are destined not to survive. Parsec's体面退款关停 reveals a残酷的行业真相: top-tier capital can catalyze a good product, but it cannot buy a perpetual survival slot in a winner-takes-all存量市场.

ENS Layer 2 Namechain

If Parsec died from fierce商业竞争, then the proprietary Layer 2 network Namechain, whose development was halted by ENS on February 7, 2026, died entirely because it was "killed by underlying evolution".

In past years, to escape the高昂 Gas fees on the Ethereum mainnet, which often reached tens of dollars, the ENS team had grandly planned the proprietary L2 network Namechain,试图借此降低用户的注册门槛. However, with the successful landing of the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade in 2025, the mainnet's Gas limit was historically raised to 60 million. This底层突破 significantly enhanced Ethereum's transaction processing capacity, and the Gas cost for ENS mainnet registrations暴降了 99% over the past year, with average registration fees falling directly to below $0.05.

Facing this幸福的烦恼, ENS core developer nick.eth极其果断地砍掉了 Namechain, announcing that ENSv2 would be deployed directly back onto the Ethereum mainnet. This not only saved the huge costs of developing and maintaining an L2 but, more importantly, staying on L1彻底消除了 the additional trust assumptions brought by L2 cross-chain interactions, allowing identity domain names—this most core digital infrastructure—to continue enjoying Ethereum's highest level of security保障.

Even Vitalik Buterin personally commented: "This is a wise decision." Although abandoning the L2, the roadmap for ENSv2's experience optimizations like single-step registration and cross-chain stablecoin payments remains. Namechain did not die from code vulnerabilities or funding breakdowns, but from being "no longer necessary." Perhaps in the history of Web3, filled with unfinished projects and runaways, this counts as an极其罕见,甚至值得起立鼓掌的体面收场.

Reflection: What This Wave of Suspensions Is Saying

Putting these cases together, a few things become clear.

First, the lack of造血能力 is the underlying reason for all failures. GENSO Online's expenses were five times its revenue; MilkyWay, relying on截留 10% of staking fees, simply couldn't cover operational costs; Parsec couldn't find a sustainable cash flow source after on-chain activity declined. These projects share a common underlying logic: using financing to buy time, using token incentives to buy growth, but never establishing a造血机制 independent of external输血.

Second, multi-chain expansion is a repeatedly verified trap. ZeroLend deployed simultaneously on multiple chains like zkSync, Manta, Linea, Zircuit, XLayer, with TVL once exceeding $250 million, seeming like success. But multi-chain brought not scale effects but全面碎片化 of liquidity—it was spread too thin on each chain, and the生态衰退 of any one chain would directly affect the entire protocol. With limited resources, spreading wide is not as good as digging deep. This道理 is simple, but during the hottest days of the "multi-chain narrative" a few years back, almost no one was willing to take it seriously.

Third, security is a human problem, not just a code problem. The $40 million lost by Step Finance didn't vanish in a sophisticated smart contract漏洞, but on a poorly managed personal computer. In 2025, the entire Web3 industry lost nearly $4 billion due to hacker attacks, a significant proportion of which came from social engineering attacks and supply chain vulnerabilities—that is, from "human error," not "code error."

Fourth, capital is accelerating its concentration towards头部 with real demand. Stablecoins, RWA, and prediction markets showed clear product-market fit in 2026; BTC, ETH, and SOL-related assets continued to attract traditional incremental capital through ETF channels. Meanwhile, the落地 of regulatory frameworks like the 2025《GENIUS 法案》 further清退不合规的边缘项目 from the market. According to reliable research data, the liquidity space left for long-tail tokens and projects without real application scenarios is narrowing significantly, with the median decline of altcoins in the past year reaching 79%.

Of course, there is another side worth noting in these announcements. Polynomial not强行发币, ZeroLend using its own airdrop份额 to compensate affected users, ENS果断砍掉 Namechain the moment it became unnecessary—these choices are actually not common in this industry. The出清 is painful, but it is also筛选: leaving behind those teams truly willing to be responsible to users.

There are still over nine months left in 2026. This suspension list will most likely grow longer.

What exactly are the survivors relying on? That remains to be seen slowly......

Domande pertinenti

QWhat is the fundamental reason for the failure of the projects mentioned in the article, such as GENSO Online and MilkyWay Protocol?

AThe fundamental reason for their failure is the lack of sustainable, independent revenue-generating capabilities. These projects relied on external funding and token incentives for growth but never built a viable business model that could cover operational costs without continuous capital infusion.

QAccording to the article, what was a major strategic mistake that led to the downfall of the DeFi lending protocol ZeroLend?

AA major strategic mistake was its blind multi-chain expansion. This strategy led to severe fragmentation of liquidity across chains like zkSync, Manta, and Linea, making the protocol vulnerable to the decline of any single ecosystem and ultimately resulting in unsustainable operations.

QHow did the security breach at Step Finance differ from a typical smart contract exploit, and what was the consequence?

AThe security breach was not a typical smart contract exploit but resulted from a compromised personal device of a team executive. This operational security failure led to the theft of approximately $40 million from the treasury, which ultimately caused the project to collapse despite attempts to recover funds and seek rescue financing.

QWhy did the ENS core development team decide to stop developing its proprietary Layer 2 network, Namechain?

AThe team stopped development because it became 'no longer necessary.' The successful Ethereum Fusaka upgrade drastically reduced mainnet gas fees by 99%, making ENS registrations cost less than $0.05 on average. This eliminated the primary reason for building a separate L2, and staying on Ethereum L1 provided superior security.

QWhat broader market trend is highlighted by the collective shutdown of these diverse Web3 projects in early 2026?

AThe trend is a market-wide consolidation and 'clearing out' where capital is accelerating towards projects with genuine product-market fit, such as stablecoins, RWA, and prediction markets. Meanwhile, regulatory clarity and a harsh bear market are squeezing out non-compliant and long-tail projects with no real utility, leading to a high rate of shutdowns.

Letture associate

GitHub, Transfixed by AI

On the night of February 9th, GitHub suffered a major outage caused by a simple configuration change—reducing a cache refresh interval from 12 to 2 hours—that triggered a cascade of failures. This was not an isolated event, but part of a broader pattern. In early 2026, GitHub experienced at least 8 major incidents, failing to meet its promised 99.9% availability. These outages stemmed from structural issues: explosive growth in load, tight service coupling, and insufficient protection against abnormal traffic. This unprecedented load is driven by AI Agents. In 2025, GitHub handled ~1 billion commits. By 2026, weekly commits reached 275 million, projecting to ~14 billion for the year—a 14x increase. AI tools like Claude Code now contribute 4.5% of all public repository commits, with weekly submissions surging 25x in just three months. AI-generated pull requests jumped from 4 million to 17 million per month in half a year. Unlike human developers, AI Agents work continuously, generating commits at a scale that overwhelms infrastructure designed for human rhythms. The surge also shattered GitHub's business model. Copilot's flat-rate pricing, based on assisting human developers, became unsustainable as Agentic AI sessions consumed resources worth hundreds of dollars for a few dollars in fees. In response, GitHub imposed usage limits and, by June 1st, shifted to a pay-per-use "AI Credits" system. Facing this new reality, GitHub realized a 10x scaling plan was insufficient. It announced a need to *redesign* its architecture for 30x current scale—decoupling services, adding fault isolation, and improving change management to prevent cascading failures. Other platforms like Stripe and AWS are facing similar challenges with AI Agents. Fundamentally, GitHub is transitioning from a human collaboration platform to an "exhaust pipe" for automated AI workflows. Its detailed post-mortem reports aim to maintain trust during this turbulent rebuild. The February outage was not just a technical glitch, but a signal of the software industry's entry into a new, AI-driven era.

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GitHub, Transfixed by AI

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Both Suffer Massive Losses Exceeding $90 Billion, Which Is in Greater Peril: Strategy or Bitmine?

Facing massive paper losses exceeding $90 billion each amidst a sharp market downturn, "Digital Asset Treasury" (DAT) giants Strategy and Bitmine find themselves in a precarious position, but with different underlying risks. Strategy, heavily invested in Bitcoin (BTC), faces significant financial strain. Its strategy relies heavily on debt, including convertible notes and preferred stock (STRC) requiring substantial dividend payments. With its cash reserves dwindling and BTC offering no staking yield for cash flow, Strategy's high leverage makes it vulnerable. A continued price decline could force asset sales to meet obligations, potentially creating a negative feedback loop. Its market value has already fallen sharply. In contrast, Bitmine, an Ethereum (ETH) holder, appears on firmer financial ground. It primarily funds its purchases through equity offerings (like ATM programs), avoiding debt pressure. It also generates income by staking a large portion of its ETH holdings. While not immune to market drops and shareholder dilution concerns, Bitmine maintains more flexibility, recently announcing a new preferred share offering to raise further capital. The core divergence lies in their financing: Bitmine uses equity (investor money), while Strategy uses debt (borrowed money). Consequently, Bitmine currently faces less immediate liquidity pressure than Strategy, which must navigate the dual challenge of servicing debt/dividends and a declining core asset (BTC) price.

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Both Suffer Massive Losses Exceeding $90 Billion, Which Is in Greater Peril: Strategy or Bitmine?

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Where the AI Bubble Really Is: Which Layer of Players Are Naked

AI Bubble: Where It Really Is and Who's Swimming Naked This analysis dissects the AI industry not as a single entity but as a five-layer pyramid, arguing that bubbles are concentrated in specific tiers, not uniformly distributed. **Key Distinction from the 2000 Dot-com Bubble:** Unlike 2000, where companies had stock prices before revenue, today's leading AI players have massive, contract-backed revenue driving their valuations. Core infrastructure demand is real, with every GPU running at full capacity for paying customers. **The Five-Layer Pyramid & Bubble Assessment:** * **L0 (Fab/Manufacturing) & Top L4 (Leading AI Apps): NO BUBBLE.** Companies like TSMC, NVIDIA, major cloud providers (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon), and top AI labs have real revenues and orders. Supply is tightly constrained by TSMC's disciplined capacity control and physical limits like power/land for data centers, preventing a supply glut. * **L1 (Memory): BATTLEGROUND.** Sky-high HBM margins could signal a new structural cycle or a classic "boom before bust." The oligopoly of three major players may enforce supply discipline, making this a high-stakes bet. * **L2 (Interconnect/Optical Modules): BUBBLE TERRITORY.** Companies like Lumentum and AAOI have seen stock surges (4-10x) far outpacing revenue growth. This hardware segment has lower physical barriers to expansion than fabs, allowing speculation. It mirrors the 2000 bubble's epicenter—optics. * **L3 (Infrastructure/"GPU Landlords"): VULNERABLE.** GPU leasing companies profit from the current compute shortage but own no long-term moat. Their business model relies on a temporary bottleneck that will ease as big tech expands and new tech (e.g., potential space-based data centers) emerges. * **L4 Long Tail (VC-backed Startups): STRONG BUBBLE SIGNALS.** VC funding concentration in AI is twice that of the 1999 peak. Many startups with little revenue use the valuation logic of successful giants to justify their own, creating high risk of a "valuation crunch" when funding dries up. **Critical Risks to Monitor:** 1. **GPU Depreciation & Accounting:** Companies extending the assumed useful life of GPUs artificially boost profits. The true economic life depends on future generational leaps from NVIDIA. 2. **"GPU Credit" & Off-Balance-Sheet Leverage:** Emerging structures where shell companies borrow to buy GPUs and lease them out (with chipmakers sometimes investing) move debt off major balance sheets. This echoes the "vendor financing" of 2000 and the securitization risks of 2008, though currently small-scale. 3. **TSMC Abandoning Caution:** If the primary supply bottleneck (TSMC's conservative capacity planning) breaks, runaway supply could trigger a bust. 4. **Algorithmic Efficiency Breakthrough:** A major leap in software efficiency could drastically reduce the need for raw compute hardware, undermining the investment thesis. **Conclusion:** The AI boom is expensive and has frothy areas, but its core is underpinned by real demand and physical supply constraints. The bubble risk is layered: most present in optical components, GPU leasing, and the long-tail startup ecosystem, while the foundational chip manufacturing and leading application layers remain relatively solid—for now.

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Where the AI Bubble Really Is: Which Layer of Players Are Naked

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