SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226)：高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-02-26Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-02-26

Introduzione

市场在上周五仍保持风险偏好的态势，在加密货币方面，价格在近期反弹后也同样趋于平稳，不过整体主流叙事仍持续改善。

市场在上周五仍保持风险偏好的态势，中国 10 年期公债收益率触及 20 年低点，欧洲固定收益市场在欧洲央行鸽派言论支持下上涨，而尽管有大量债券供应，新债的投资需求仍相当良好。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226)：高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

卖方经济学家也一直在上修美国经济增长预测，普遍认为经济衰退的可能性已经降至不到 40% ， 2024 年经济增长预测的中位数为 2.1% 。此外，由于经济数据强劲，高盛也正式将美联储首次降息的预测推迟至 6 月，不过他们仍预计终端利率将降至 3.25-3.5% 左右的低点。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226)：高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

科技板块在经历了惊人的涨幅后，上周五因获利了结而表现稍微落后，不过股市仍保持在历史高点附近。对冲基金和共同基金都自年初开始大量持有股票敞口，因此无论是主动型或者被动型基金经理人，今年迄今都取得了出色的成绩。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226)：高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

企业盈利继续复苏，预计进入 2025 年时盈利仍会不断增长， 36% 的 S&P 企业在季度财报电话会议中提到“AI”，该主题仍然持续推动利润和市场情绪。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226)：高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

在加密货币方面，价格在近期反弹后也同样趋于平稳，不过整体主流叙事仍持续改善。Reddit 最近在其 S-1 (IPO) 文件中宣布，他们已将部分多余现金投资于 BTC 和 ETH，且预计未来会继续使用它们来支付某些虚拟商品。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226)：高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

与此同时，散户的参与度持续改善，JPM 报告称，与大型机构钱包相比，小型钱包（即散户）的资金流入更大。 Block、PayPal 和 Robinhood 等散户平台的 Bitcoin 净购买量也在 2023 年出现反弹，同时 Coinbase 的 2023 年第四季度财报也显示机构和散户交易活动均出现提升。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226)：高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

Letture associate

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Kalshi's Biggest Rival is Not Polymarket

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Are the AI Giants' 'Token Subsidy Wars' Almost Over?

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Viewpoint: The Impossible Triangle is Fundamentally a Pseudo-Problem

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OpenAI's "Most Open" Move: Codex No Longer Exclusively Favors GPT

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