SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240205)：非农远超预期，美债收益率再度上行

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-02-05Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-02-05

Introduzione

BTC价格已在42000至43000区间附近停留接近9天，进入工作日后前端上抬3% Vol左右，曲线走平，近期隐含波动率停留在40% Vol附近。

上周五（2 FEB）美国 1 月季调后非农就业人数增加 35.3 万人，每小时工资环比增长 0.6% ，同比增长 4.5% ，均超出市场预期，进一步证明了经济的强劲；互换市场再度下调三月份的降息预期至 14% 左右，美债收益率整体短线拉升，十年期快速回到 4.0% 上方并在过去两日延续上行动能挑战 4.1% 关口，对政策更敏感的两年期收益率涨至 4.445% ；数据公布后隔日，美联储理事鲍曼指出薪资上涨对物价上行压力的担忧，警告不要过早降息，并表示对未来的政策立场变化保持谨慎态度，甚至重申，如果通胀水平继续停滞不前，她仍愿意加息。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240205)：非农远超预期，美债收益率再度上行

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240205)：非农远超预期，美债收益率再度上行

Source: Binance & TradingView

数字货币方面，BTC 价格已在 42000 至 43000 区间附近停留接近 9 天，进入工作日后前端上抬 3% Vol 左右，曲线走平，近期隐含波动率停留在 40% Vol 附近。

成交方面，过去 24 小时 ETH 在 Deribit 成交量不到 200 M，主要集中在 29 MAR 2400 & 2500 的Long Call（成交量分别在 4000/7000 ETH 左右）以及短期 7/9 FEB 2200 & 2250 位置的Short Put。BTC 成交总量为 360 M，成交量在期限上分布均匀，看跌期权占比直线上升至 50% 左右，在期权链上形成了以 41000 为分界点的 Sell Put Spread 组合。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240205)：非农远超预期，美债收益率再度上行

Source: Deribit （截至 30 JAN 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240205)：非农远超预期，美债收益率再度上行

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240205)：非农远超预期，美债收益率再度上行

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240205)：非农远超预期，美债收益率再度上行

Data Source: Deribit

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240205)：非农远超预期，美债收益率再度上行

Data Source: Deribit，BTC 的 Flow 在期权链上形成了以 41000 为分界点的 Sell Put Spread 组合

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240205)：非农远超预期，美债收益率再度上行

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240205)：非农远超预期，美债收益率再度上行

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240205)：非农远超预期，美债收益率再度上行

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Letture associate

Venus Protocol Integrates Tokenized Stocks As Lending Collateral On BNB Chain

Venus Protocol now allows tokenized stocks from companies like Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft to be used as borrowing collateral on BNB Chain. This integration brings a key real-world asset (RWA) use case into DeFi lending. Users can deposit these tokenized equities, which are described as 1:1 backed by real shares held by regulated custodians, into isolated pools to borrow stablecoins or BNB without selling their underlying positions. This move expands DeFi lending beyond crypto-native assets, resembling traditional margin finance. It highlights BNB Chain's competition for RWA activity and aims to attract more stable liquidity. However, tokenized stocks introduce different risks, including dependency on off-chain custodians and challenges with collateral valuation due to differing market hours between traditional and on-chain trading. While not an immediate price catalyst, this development is significant within broader crypto trends like compliance pressure and RWA tokenization. Success will depend on growing liquidity, reliable custody, robust price oracles, and clear rules for redemptions and liquidations.

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Venus Protocol Integrates Tokenized Stocks As Lending Collateral On BNB Chain

bitcoinist40 min fa

The Impossible Trilemma Is Basically a Pseudo-Problem

The article argues that the core limitation of blockchain technology is not the scalability trilemma, but its fundamental lack of privacy, which acts as a barrier to institutional capital. It defines blockchain as a slow, expensive, shared computer whose primary value is "permissionlessness" (no administrator) and verifiable trust. While this is ideal for native financial assets like stable币, which now process trillions, two critical flaws remain for mainstream adoption: regulatory legitimacy and a default transparency that leaks all financial activity. The author contends that transparency is not a feature but a tax, quantified through MEV extraction, making the public ledger unusable for serious institutions. However, modern cryptography, specifically zero-knowledge proofs, now offers a solution: "provable privacy." This allows users to prove compliance (e.g., solvency, KYC) without revealing underlying data. This fusion of privacy and auditability resolves the transparency-compliant privacy-compliance dichotomy, enabling a purely upgraded system where transactions are verified but not broadcasted. Closing these flaws is presented as the essential bridge to onboard the next wave of trillions in capital.

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The Impossible Trilemma Is Basically a Pseudo-Problem

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The "Impossible Triad" Is Fundamentally a Pseudo-Problem

The article argues that blockchain's fundamental limitation is not the scalability trilemma (decentralization, scalability, security), which has been largely solved, but the lack of **privacy** and, until recently, clear **legitimacy**. Blockchain is described as a slow, expensive, globally shared computer whose core value is censorship resistance and verifiability. While ideal for native digital assets like money (e.g., stablecoins), its default transparency acts as a **tax**, exposing all transactions and enabling MEV extraction, which deters serious institutional capital. Simultaneously, its permissionless nature created regulatory ambiguity. The piece contends that **privacy** is the missing critical feature. It rejects the false choice between total transparency and complete anonymity. Modern cryptography (like zero-knowledge proofs) enables **compliant privacy**: users can prove facts (solvency, KYC status, compliance) without revealing the underlying sensitive data (specific holdings, identities). This preserves auditability for regulators and eliminates the leak of financial information. With recent regulatory progress (e.g., the GENIUS Act) addressing legitimacy, adding default, provably compliant privacy becomes a pure upgrade. It transforms blockchain from a costly, public ledger into a confidential settlement layer, finally bridging the gap to mainstream institutional and individual adoption of on-chain finance.

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The "Impossible Triad" Is Fundamentally a Pseudo-Problem

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Optical Chips: Collective Capacity Expansion

The global optical chip industry is experiencing a massive wave of expansion driven by surging AI data center demand. Major players across the US, Japan, Europe, and China are aggressively investing to ramp up production capacity. In the US, Coherent is expanding its 6-inch Indium Phosphide (InP) semiconductor fab in Texas, supported by CHIPS Act funding and a $2 billion strategic investment from NVIDIA. Lumentum is building a new factory for InP optical devices, and Nokia is scaling its advanced photonic chip packaging and testing capabilities. NVIDIA's investments aim to secure future supply of critical lasers and optical interconnect products for AI infrastructure. Japan's JX Advanced Metals, a leading InP substrate supplier, plans a multi-billion yen investment to increase its capacity 7-10 times, strengthening its grip on the crucial upstream materials market. In Europe, IQE and Tower Semiconductor settled a patent dispute and signed a multi-year InP epitaxial wafer supply agreement, highlighting that next-generation silicon photonics platforms will integrate high-performance InP components. STMicroelectronics and Sivers Semiconductors are also expanding silicon photonics production and partnerships. China is rapidly building out its domestic supply chain. Dongshan Precision's subsidiary, Source Photonics, announced a $12 billion project to expand optical chip and module production. Companies like Sanan Optoelectronics and Yunnan Germanium are scaling up InP chip manufacturing and substrate production, moving towards vertical integration from materials to modules. While debate continues around the exact future architecture—whether CPO (Co-Packaged Optics), NPO, or pluggables will dominate—analysts like Morgan Stanley argue the underlying driver is unchangeable: the explosive growth in bandwidth demand. This will inevitably increase the volume of optical engines, lasers, and related content per GPU, regardless of the final technical path. The competition for "more light" in the AI era has intensified into a global, full-chain capacity race.

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Optical Chips: Collective Capacity Expansion

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Stablecoins Finally Find Real Yield: An In-Depth Look at On-Chain Reinsurance Re | A Conversation with Re Founder Karan Saroya

Stablecoin Real Yield Found: A Deep Dive into On-Chain Reinsurance with Re's Karan Saroya As stablecoin supply exceeds $170 billion, the search for sustainable, non-speculative yield intensifies. Re, an on-chain reinsurance platform, provides an answer: connecting stablecoin capital to the trillion-dollar traditional reinsurance market. Re operates as a regulated reinsurer, accepting stablecoin deposits as collateral to back US insurance companies. These insurers pay premiums, generating yield that flows back to on-chain depositors. Currently supporting 35 insurers and underwriting $500 million, Re projects scaling to over $1 billion soon. Key insights from a Bankless podcast with founder Karan Saroya and investor Avichal of Electric Capital: 1. **Uncorrelated, Real-World Yield:** Re offers stablecoin holders access to reinsurance returns (targeting 12-14%+), an asset class entirely separate from crypto or equity markets. 2. **Operational Efficiency via Smart Contracts:** Re replaces traditional, labor-intensive capital fundraising with smart contracts, allowing a ~12-person team to compete with industry giants. 3. **Regulatory Leverage:** For every $1 of collateral, regulations allow backing $5-7 in written premiums. This leverage amplifies returns from the underlying risk-free rate. 4. **DeFi Integration:** Depositors receive receipt tokens, which can be used in protocols like Morpho for "looping," potentially pushing yields to 18-20%+. 5. **The "DeFi Mullet" Model:** A compliant front-end (regulated reinsurer) paired with a decentralized back-end (smart contracts, DeFi capital markets). 6. **RE Governance Token:** Modeled on Lloyd's of London, the token governs the central capital pool's allocation, counterparty acceptance, and parameters. 7. **Real Economic Impact:** Capital funds real-world productivity (factories, clinics, businesses) via insurance, moving beyond crypto's internal loops. The discussion highlights a pivotal moment: DeFi's supply-side infrastructure is now met by real demand for productive yield, potentially kickstarting a flywheel where vast on-chain stablecoin capital seeks these real-world returns.

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Stablecoins Finally Find Real Yield: An In-Depth Look at On-Chain Reinsurance Re | A Conversation with Re Founder Karan Saroya

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