SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240122):BTC承压下行,延续Risky Flow

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-01-22Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-01-22

Introduzione

比特币价格因持续遭到GBTC抛压而再度下行,失守41000关口,前端IV小幅上行,曲线走平,大宗交易相对乏善可陈,但前端以26JAN24为代表的期限上买Put卖Call的Risky Flow依旧是散户的热门操作。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240122):BTC承压下行,延续Risky Flow

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240122):BTC承压下行,延续Risky Flow

上周五(19 JAN)美国 1 月一年期通胀率预期录的 2.8% ,为 2020 年以来最低水平,密歇根消费者信心指数则是录得高于预期的 78.8 ,为 2021 年 7 月以来最高。过去几日美债收益率维持在近期高点小幅波动,两年期/十年期分别报 4.395% /4.113% ,另一方面,在近日多位美联储官员相对鹰派的发言和强势的数据影响下,市场对美联储 3 月不降息的概率预期已经上调至 56.8% ,马上到来的 2 月 1 日 FOMC 则被认为是美联储表态的关键节点,本周包括 PMI,PCE 在内的核心数据也将对下次会议内容产生不可忽视的影响。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240122):BTC承压下行,延续Risky Flow

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240122):BTC承压下行,延续Risky Flow

Source: Binance & TradingView

数字货币方面,比特币价格因持续遭到 GBTC 抛压而再度下行,失守 41000 关口,前端 IV 小幅上行,曲线走平,大宗交易相对乏善可陈,但前端以 26 JAN 24 为代表的期限上买 Put 卖 Call 的 Risky Flow 依旧是散户的热门操作;ETH 交易量的 P/C Ratio 在近日交割时点达到 0.15 的低谷,大宗数量庞大的买入建仓 2 FEB 24-2550-C(Size: 23950 ETH)和 29 MAR 24-2700-C(Size: 17717 ETH)成为市场焦点。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240122):BTC承压下行,延续Risky Flow

Source: Deribit (截至 22 JAN 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240122):BTC承压下行,延续Risky Flow

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240122):BTC承压下行,延续Risky Flow

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240122):BTC承压下行,延续Risky Flow

Source: Laevitas

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240122):BTC承压下行,延续Risky Flow

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240122):BTC承压下行,延续Risky Flow

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240122):BTC承压下行,延续Risky Flow

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Letture associate

Options Don't Work in DeFi? Vitalik Might Not Agree

For years, the prevailing view has been that options struggle to gain traction in DeFi due to complexity, fragmented liquidity, and lack of natural demand compared to products like perpetual futures. However, a recent algorithmic stablecoin design proposed by Vitalik Buterin presents a different perspective, using options not as a standalone trading product, but as foundational infrastructure for other financial instruments. In this design, one unit of ETH is split into two components: a "stable" side (P) that retains value up to a specified strike price, and an "upside" side (N) that captures all appreciation above that strike. Combined, they always equal one ETH, eliminating debt, margin, and liquidation risks inherent in typical collateralized debt position (CDP) stablecoins. The stable component essentially mimics the payoff of a covered call option. To function as a stablecoin, this structure requires continuously rolling deep in-the-money calls, which introduces challenges like rollover slippage, predictable transaction flow vulnerable to front-running, and persistent liquidity needs. A core hurdle is finding consistent buyers for the leveraged ETH upside exposure (N). While it offers leverage without funding rates or liquidation, it must compete with simpler alternatives like direct call options or perpetuals. The system's scalability depends on a sustained demand for this specific form of leverage. The author draws parallels to their experience with Rysk, where earlier versions of DeFi options protocols struggled. The breakthrough came with Rysk V12, which aligns incentives: asset holders generate yield by selling covered calls against their holdings, while market makers efficiently acquire the desired option exposure. This demonstrates that options can find product-market fit when embedded as a risk distribution and pricing engine within structured products, stablecoins, or yield-generating assets, rather than marketed as a complex direct trading instrument. Vitalik's proposal reinforces this architectural approach—using fully collateralized, non-custodial, and physically settled options as a fundamental building block. The real opportunity for options in DeFi may lie not in becoming the next perpetual swap, but in powering the next generation of on-chain financial products.

marsbit19 min fa

Options Don't Work in DeFi? Vitalik Might Not Agree

marsbit19 min fa

Conversation with Investor Zheng Di: MicroStrategy's Coin Sale Experiment, AI Economy, and Opportunities in US Stocks

Frontier tech investor Zheng "Didier" Di discusses the recent Bitcoin price drop, the financial strategy shift at MicroStrategy, the AI-driven surge in U.S. stocks, and the evolving role of crypto exchanges. Didier posits that the recent BTC decline stems less from macro factors or ETF outflows, and more from market repricing due to MicroStrategy's new financial structure. Following a wave of preferred stock and debt issuance (STRC, STRZ, etc.), MicroStrategy must now manage cash flow to pay dividends, potentially leading to a market expectation of sustained, small-scale BTC sales to maintain its "per-share bitcoin neutral" principle. Didier views this as a financial "experiment" testing market capacity for such recurring sell pressure, which, while creating near-term structural headwinds, likely avoids a true "death spiral" absent major new external shocks. Shifting to AI, Didier argues that tokens are becoming the new form of labor, with AI models and compute (tokenized inputs) increasingly replacing human roles in execution and middle-management. This drives enterprise efficiency and higher margins, fueling the sustained rally in U.S. semiconductor, data center, and infrastructure stocks. He foresees an emerging "machine economy" where automated agents transact and collaborate on-chain. Regarding crypto exchanges offering U.S. equities, Didier sees this as a natural evolution. With few crypto-native assets generating lasting value, exchanges are pivoting towards real-world assets (RWAs) like stocks and bonds. This doesn't necessarily cannibalize crypto but reflects a maturing industry focusing on blockchain's core utilities: decentralized choice and efficient settlement. He notes that trading logic for crypto natives doesn't need to drastically change, as meme-driven and fundamentalist strategies find analogs in U.S. markets. The "1011 event" (likely referring to a major market crash) severely damaged crypto market liquidity, marking a probable end to the altcoin speculative cycle, with capital flowing towards the deeper liquidity of U.S. markets. For the macro outlook, Didier is cautious about near-term market pressure from potential mega-IPOs (e.g., SpaceX) and the U.S. midterm elections, which could bring more regulatory scrutiny. Long-term, he remains bullish on AI's productivity gains and its convergence with blockchain/Web3, predicting a shift from speculative frenzy to a more institutionalized, industrial phase for the crypto sector.

marsbit56 min fa

Conversation with Investor Zheng Di: MicroStrategy's Coin Sale Experiment, AI Economy, and Opportunities in US Stocks

marsbit56 min fa

Playnance’s $GCOIN Lists on KoinBX Amid Rapid Growth in India

Playnance's native token, $GCOIN, has been listed on the cryptocurrency exchange KoinBX as of June 18. This move aims to enhance accessibility for its rapidly growing community, particularly in India, where the blockchain-powered Web3 iGaming ecosystem has gained significant traction. Over 130 partners in Playnance's "Be the Boss" program have built communities engaging thousands of active players in the region. The "Be the Boss" model allows participants to create and manage their own gaming communities, earning rewards tied to community activity. CEO Pini Peter noted India's high engagement, with community leaders successfully building player networks. One partner, Dr. Nicolas, reported earning over $57,000 through the program in recent months, highlighting both the financial rewards and the opportunity to grow an engaged community. $GCOIN serves as the ecosystem's core utility token, incentivizing participation and aligning the interests of players and community leaders ("Bosses"). The listing on KoinBX is part of Playnance's strategy to expand globally, increasing the token's utility and accessibility by combining community ownership, gamified engagement, and blockchain-based incentives. Founded in 2020, Playnance is a Web3 iGaming infrastructure company focused on creating live, non-custodial, on-chain products to onboard mainstream users. It currently processes approximately one million transactions daily, aiming to simplify the user experience while maintaining full on-chain transparency.

TheNewsCrypto1 h fa

Playnance’s $GCOIN Lists on KoinBX Amid Rapid Growth in India

TheNewsCrypto1 h fa

STRC Hits Historic Low, Saylor's Perpetual Motion Machine Grinds to a Halt

STRC, the perpetual preferred stock issued by MicroStrategy to fund its Bitcoin purchases, hit a historic low of $85.32, a 17% discount to its $100 par value. Designed as a "digital credit engine" to trade stably near par and enable continuous share issuance for buying Bitcoin, its plunge signals a breakdown in this model. Three key factors drove the decline: 1. Bitcoin's price fell over 50% from its peak, trading around $63,000 amid hawkish Fed signals. 2. MicroStrategy's cash reserves were depleted after a $1.5 billion convertible note repayment, slashing the dividend coverage for STRC's 11.5% yield to ~7 months. The company then sold 32 BTC to cover dividends—Michael Saylor's first Bitcoin sale since 2022—damaging the "never sell" narrative. 3. A competing Bitcoin-backed preferred stock, Strive's SATA, offers a higher yield (~13%) and daily dividends, drawing investors away from STRC. The drop triggers a negative cycle: STRC below par halts ATM share issuances, cutting off a key funding source for Bitcoin buys and potentially forcing more BTC sales for dividends, further eroding confidence. While Saylor argues the model is mathematically sound—needing only 2.3% annual Bitcoin growth to sustain itself—the market is testing the resilience of the leveraged Bitcoin treasury strategy in a bear market. The STRC price now reflects rising skepticism about this financial machinery's durability during downturns.

marsbit1 h fa

STRC Hits Historic Low, Saylor's Perpetual Motion Machine Grinds to a Halt

marsbit1 h fa

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