SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240111)：SEC妥协，数字货币迎来历史性的一天

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-01-11Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-01-11

Introduzione

数字货币迎来历史性的一天，当地时间10JAN，SEC以3:2的投票结果正式批准了Bitcoin Spot ETF上市，众多获批的交易所也迅速表示将会通过降低手续费的方式吸引资金入场，引发加密社区的狂欢。

昨日（10 Jan）交易员在 CPI 和初请失业金数据发布之前表现得较为谨慎，美债收益率日内小幅上行后逐渐回吐全部涨幅，当前两年期/十年期收益率分别为 4.341% /3.993% 。美三大股指集体收涨，道指/标普/纳指分别涨 0.45% /0.57% /0.75% 。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在谈话中提到，当前对利率已有足够的限制以使其达到 2% 的目标，当对通胀达到 2% 目标有信心时，美联储可以采取降息，降息速度取决于经济情况。现在还没有接近放缓缩表的时机，要在 2024 年逐步实现。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240111)：SEC妥协，数字货币迎来历史性的一天

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240111)：SEC妥协，数字货币迎来历史性的一天

Source: Binance & TradingView

数字货币迎来历史性的一天，当地时间 10 JAN，SEC 以 3: 2 的投票结果正式批准了 Bitcoin Spot ETF 上市，众多获批的交易所也迅速表示将会通过降低手续费的方式吸引资金入场，引发加密社区的狂欢。尽管 SEC 主席 Gary Gensler 投出了决定性的一票，他仍然发文表示并未认可比特币，再次强调了比特币是一种投机性、波动性较大的资产，比特币现货 ETF 的获批将带来更多监管。价格方面，或许是前一天的“提前演练”让市场已经有了准备，BTC 从 45000 反弹至 47000 下方后并没有更进一步的突破，期间还伴随着多次提前兑现利好的卖压震荡，通过上方的对比图我们看到，市场将更多的热情放到了 ETH 上，使其终于摆脱了只能终日与 BTC 弱势联动的地位，在日内高歌猛进，成功上破 2600 点。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240111)：SEC妥协，数字货币迎来历史性的一天

Source：SEC 官网

期权方面，在 ETF 事件靴子落地之后，由于现货市场的反应较为平静，BTC 整体 IV 大幅回落至 60% 左右，曲线倒挂程度减弱，与之相反，市场对 ETH 后市的上行空间显然规划出了更大的蓝图，赋予了更高的不确定性，ETH 的中后端 IV 回落幅度较小，各期限的 IV 水平高出 BTC 6 ～ 8% Vol。交易方面，买入看涨策略仍然统治着大宗市场，ETH 成交数量得到大幅提振，以 23 FEB 24 2700 vs 3100 为代表的 Long Call Spread 订单海量砸向了市场，各期限 Vol Skew 上也出现了明显的上行。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240111)：SEC妥协，数字货币迎来历史性的一天

Source: Der.bit （截至 11 JAN 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240111)：SEC妥协，数字货币迎来历史性的一天

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240111)：SEC妥协，数字货币迎来历史性的一天

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240111)：SEC妥协，数字货币迎来历史性的一天

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240111)：SEC妥协，数字货币迎来历史性的一天

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240111)：SEC妥协，数字货币迎来历史性的一天

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