SignalPlus宏观研报(20240105)：BTC市场将迎来大波动

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-01-05Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-01-05

Introduzione

避险情绪连续三天升温，对欧洲降息的期待因德国通胀小幅回升而被推迟，物价上涨速度为3个月来最快，欧洲央行3月降息的可能性回落至43%以下，12月Euribor期货下跌14个点，创近6个月来最大跌幅。

今天最大的 BTC 的大宗期权成交单又是牛市价差，有位老板花 120 万美金买了 1 月底 44000 的看涨期权+卖 50000 的看涨期权，共计 1000 个 BTC。

看看 Deribit 的 BTC 的期权的期限结构， 1 月 12 日的 IV 翘起到 80% 。期权市场大家的预期都是 12 日前，市场要大动。交易员们未来一周估计会比过去一周更刺激，安全带系好。合约上加杠杆的，强烈推荐买点虚指的期权，对冲下，别被爆仓。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240105)：BTC市场将迎来大波动

从 BTC 的波动率微笑看， 1 月底到期的看跌和看涨比较平均， 3 月看跌微微要比看涨的高一些，这个倾向也比较正常。一般来说如果右边（对比左边）翘得非常高，那就是看涨期权的需求极度强烈，一般市场（短期）快到顶了->推荐卖看涨买看跌；如果反过来左边翘起的非常夸张，那一般市场（短期）恐慌也快到底。这种时候其实不推荐交易，我觉得太刀口舔血了。除非你搞套利。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240105)：BTC市场将迎来大波动

避险情绪连续三天升温，对欧洲降息的期待因德国通胀小幅回升而被推迟，物价上涨速度为 3 个月来最快，欧洲央行 3 月降息的可能性回落至 43% 以下， 12 月 Euribor 期货下跌 14 个点，创近 6 个月来最大跌幅。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240105)：BTC市场将迎来大波动

美国方面，ADP 就业人数增长超出预期，加上初请失业救济人数保持稳定，进一步增加市场对今天非农就业数据走强的预期，ADP 数据中的服务业、休闲和酒店业增长较为强劲，另一方面，工资增长持续放缓，跳槽者工资增长从 8.3% 下降至 8.0% ，而在职者工资增长也从 5.6% 降至 5.4% 。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240105)：BTC市场将迎来大波动

美债收益率曲线整体上移约 7 个基点， 10 年期收益率重回 4% 的水平，重新调整利率预期仍是新一年的主题，过去一周交易员开始回调部分过度的降息预期，另外，企业发债供应异常强劲（本周已超过 500 亿美元）也进一步对收益率构成压力，法国和西班牙国债拍卖均出现较大的尾部，Euribor 期货价格也出现大幅调整，美国方面，短天期 SOFR 期货（2024 年中 -2025）熊陡 9.5 个基点，给短期资金帐户带来较好的收益（较高利率）。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240105)：BTC市场将迎来大波动

股市表现仍疲软，能源和大型科技股轮流拖累指数走跌，由于投资者预期央行降息潮即将到来，SPY 和 QQQ ETF 的做空兴趣处于多年来的最低水平，投资者也没有意愿进行任何下行保护，同时持有股票和债券多头头寸在这波走势中较为不利。如果非农业就业数据和 CPI 走强，可能会引发风险资产进一步的下跌，届时可能会有更多投资者进行逢低买进的操作。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240105)：BTC市场将迎来大波动

此外，Apple 股价持续下跌，投行分析师继续削减对 iPhone 销量的预期，该股的评级跌至 3 年来的低点，是 7 大科技巨头中最弱，拖累 7 大科技股市值在短短 3 天内蒸发近 3, 900 亿美元。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240105)：BTC市场将迎来大波动

考虑到最近的 JOLTS 和 ADP 数据结果，今天的非农就业数据有机会略高于 17.5 万的市场预测，变数将来自零售业假期招聘速度（可能会较为疲软）以及罢工结束后返回职场的汽车和赌场行业就职者（就业人口增加）。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240105)：BTC市场将迎来大波动

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

Letture associate

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