行情急跌，Mt.Gox开始砸盘了？

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2023-12-26Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-12-26

Introduzione

早在11月，Mt.Gox就曾预告过赔偿动作。

原创 | Odaily星球日报

作者 | Azuma

行情急跌，Mt.Gox开始砸盘了？

今日午后，加密货币市场短线急跌，比特币回落至 43000 美元下方，一小时内全网爆仓逾 3000 万美元。

环顾同一时间的消息面动态，对行情走势影响最大的莫过于市场开始传播“部分用户表示已收到来自 Mt.Gox 的赔偿款”。

经 Odaily星球日报查证，除了目前多家媒体所报道的 Reddit 用户 @Free-end 254 声称已收到赔款之外，早在 12 月 21 日，便已有多位日语区用户在社交媒体上发声称已收到赔偿，其中还包括日本头部交易所 bitFlyer 的创始人加纳裕三。

行情急跌，Mt.Gox开始砸盘了？

Free-end 254 声称收到赔款。

行情急跌，Mt.Gox开始砸盘了？

加纳裕三表示 Mt.Gox 已开始赔款。

行情急跌，Mt.Gox开始砸盘了？

社交媒体上可查到的最早的关于赔款启动的消息。

综合目前多位用户的披露来看，本次偿还系以法币形式（日元），渠道则是通过 PayPal 支付。

查询 Mt.Gox 过往曾披露过的赔偿计划可知，Mt.Gox 曾在今年 9 月将原定于 2023 年 10 月 31 日的赔款（基础还款、提前一次性还款和中期还款）截止日期推迟至 2024 年 10 月 31 日，但同时也表示对于已经向 Mt.Gox 提供了必要信息的债权人，预计将于今年年底开始依次赔偿。

而在 11 月中旬，Mt. Gox 破产清算人小林信明曾再次通过邮件告知用户，正努力在 2023 年内开始进行现金偿还，然而鉴于债权人众多，偿还过程将可能持续到 2024 年。此外，赔偿给具体债权人的具体时间并未确定，因此无法提前通知每个债权人获得赔偿的具体时间，但债权人可以在其赔偿文件系统中检查实时状态。

值得一提的是，在 11 月 22 日发送给债权人的另一份文件中，小林信明还指出其已于 11 月 17 日从破产信托中赎回了 70 亿日元（价值约合 4690 万美元）以进行后续的赔偿操作，该笔赎回完成后信托内的剩余资产价值约为 88 亿日元（约合 5896 万美元）。

结合上述信息可知，本次 Mt.Gox 针对部分用户所进行的赔款基本符合了小林信明此前所预告的赔偿节奏，资金则大概率来自于小林信明 11 月 17 日从破产信托中赎回的 70 亿日元。

至于 Mt.Gox 是否正在砸盘？结合 Unlocks 对于 Mt.Gox 所披露的 BTC 钱包的追踪情况可知，Mt.Gox 相关钱包最近的一笔 BTC 链上动态发生在 2023 年 7 月 24 日，该笔交易也仅仅转出了极小额的 BTC（约 1 美元），看起来更像是在检查地址控制权限。

行情急跌，Mt.Gox开始砸盘了？

Mt.Gox 相关钱包动态追踪。

行情急跌，Mt.Gox开始砸盘了？

最近一笔交易仅涉及小额转账。

综合来看，目前可以确认的信息包括，Mt.Gox 历经十年之久确实已启动了对部分客户的赔偿，但赔偿暂时均为法币形式，其所持有的 BTC 至少当前从链上追踪状态来看并未出现异动迹象。

Letture associate

Won't US Stocks Ever Fall Again? The 'Great Melt-up' Trap in the Era of High Debt

The article analyzes a popular theory circulating online that the U.S. stock market may be mathematically incapable of a true, sustained decline due to the country's massive and growing national debt. The argument suggests that the government's only path to managing this debt is through inflation and money printing, which would nominally lift asset prices like stocks, creating a perpetual "melt-up." The author places this idea within the historical context of market melt-ups, such as the dot-com bubble and Japan's asset bubble, where prices detach from fundamentals driven by momentum and FOMO. While acknowledging that a high-debt environment creates incentives for inflation, which is generally favorable for assets over cash, the article refutes key claims of the online theory. It clarifies that interest payments are not about to exceed GDP, that printing money is not the only option for the government, and that stocks do not reliably rise in lockstep with hyperinflation, citing historical examples from Germany, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela. The more probable outcome, according to the author, is a prolonged period of financial repression—moderate inflation above interest rates that slowly erodes debt and cash purchasing power, leading to nominally higher asset prices but potentially lower real returns. The core warning is that while long-term market trends may be upward, this does not eliminate the risk of significant interim crashes (30%, 40%, or more) or guarantee real wealth creation during inflationary times. The conclusion advises against betting one's entire financial future on a smooth, perpetually rising market narrative. Instead, it recommends a disciplined, diversified strategy involving productive assets (stocks, real estate, some gold, short-term bonds) and an adequate cash buffer to avoid forced selling during downturns. The key takeaway is to avoid extreme concentration in expensive assets and leverage, and not to base investment decisions on the hope that every market dip will inevitably be rescued.

marsbit2 min fa

Won't US Stocks Ever Fall Again? The 'Great Melt-up' Trap in the Era of High Debt

marsbit2 min fa

The Fate of Digital Banks: No Fancy App Can Outshine a Banking License

The Fate of Digital Banks: A Flashy App is No Match for a Banking License The article argues that despite attracting billions of users with fee-free checking accounts and sleek apps, most "neobanks" struggle to be profitable because their core business—transaction fees—is inherently low-margin. The real profit engine of banking is lending (credit), which generates interest income. However, many early neobanks operated without their own banking licenses, which restricted their ability to lend at scale. Examples like Nubank, Revolut, and Chime illustrate the point. While they gained users with free accounts, their eventual profitability came from rolling out credit products. The piece highlights systemic risks for neobanks that rely on third-party infrastructure, citing the Synapse bankruptcy, which froze user funds and revealed the fragility of such models. The solution, according to the author, is obtaining a formal banking license, like the U.S. OCC's national trust charter. This provides regulatory backing, allows direct custody of funds, and eliminates dependency on intermediary partners. The trend is now evident in the crypto sector, where companies like Kraken, SoFi, and others are actively pursuing such licenses. The article concludes that while technology changes, the fundamental business logic of banking—profiting from lending—remains constant. Successful digital banks ultimately conform to this old model, just with better interfaces and fairer terms.

Foresight News10 min fa

The Fate of Digital Banks: No Fancy App Can Outshine a Banking License

Foresight News10 min fa

In the Name of Charity, For the Benefit of the Family: How the Trump Family Turns Philanthropy into Profit?

Charity for Profit: How the Trump Family Turned Philanthropy into Personal Gain Amid a recent controversy over misleading claims about his cryptocurrency company American Bitcoin, Eric Trump invoked his children's cancer charity as evidence of his good intentions. While his Curetivity foundation (formerly the Eric Trump Foundation) has donated over $25 million to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, an investigation reveals a pattern of self-dealing and opaque practices that benefited the Trump family business. Internal documents show that from 2011 to 2016, over $500,000 from the charity was funneled back to Trump-owned properties for event costs, transactions often omitted from tax filings. This created clear conflicts of interest, with figures like former club manager and current White House aide Dan Scavino involved on both sides. Public claims of "one of the lowest expense ratios" were contradicted by records showing significant spending on entertainment, auctions, and transportation. Facing scrutiny in 2017, Eric Trump distanced himself from the board and rebranded the foundation. After a state investigation shifted focus to compliance rather than enforcement, he returned as the public face. Fundraising events, now less transparent, continue at Trump venues. Estimates suggest these events have directed over $1 million to the Trump Organization over two decades. The same playbook of optimistic claims and obscured financial realities is now evident in Eric Trump's role at American Bitcoin. He promoted it as a highly profitable venture with low mining costs, but reports indicate most Bitcoin was purchased with funds from constant stock issuance, not mined, with actual costs far higher than claimed. While the company's stock has crashed nearly 90% from its peak, Eric Trump's personal stake remains valuable. The recurring pattern involves aggressive public defense, legal maneuvering to bury records, making minimal changes to satisfy regulators, and eventually repackaging the venture to regain trust, often successfully.

marsbit20 min fa

In the Name of Charity, For the Benefit of the Family: How the Trump Family Turns Philanthropy into Profit?

marsbit20 min fa

Charity in Name, Family Gain in Reality: How the Trump Family Turns Philanthropy into Profit?

Summary: The article examines how the Trump family, particularly Eric Trump, has allegedly leveraged charitable and business ventures for financial gain. It details the operations of Eric's children's cancer charity (now Curetivity), which, despite donating over $25 million to St. Jude, reportedly funneled at least $500,000 back to Trump-owned properties for event costs between 2011-2016. These transactions, often undisclosed, involved clear conflicts of interest with Trump Organization employees on the board. Following media scrutiny and a state investigation, the charity reformed but continued holding costly fundraisers at Trump venues. The piece draws parallels to Eric's role at cryptocurrency company American Bitcoin (ABTC), where he promoted unrealistic mining cost savings. Investigative reporting revealed most Bitcoin was acquired through share dilution, with actual costs far higher than claimed, contributing to a ~90% stock price drop and significant investor losses, while insiders like Eric retained substantial wealth. The pattern identified involves using misleading rhetoric, opaque accounting, and legal strategies to navigate controversies, often deflecting criticism as political attacks before resuming operations with minimal substantive change.

链捕手28 min fa

Charity in Name, Family Gain in Reality: How the Trump Family Turns Philanthropy into Profit?

链捕手28 min fa

Bernstein Report: Agentic AI Will Transform CPU from Supporting Role to Leading Role, Bullish on Hygon Information

Bernstein research report: Agentic AI will turn CPUs from supporting players to leading roles, bullish on Hygon Information. Analysts led by David Dai argue that AI is transitioning from the chatbot era to the agentic AI era. Unlike simple query-response models, agentic AI involves complex workflows including retrieval, planning, tool calling, and multi-step reasoning. This shift dramatically increases the demand for CPU compute to orchestrate these tasks, manage memory, and prevent expensive GPU idling. The report forecasts that the GPU-to-CPU ratio in inference clusters will reverse from 8:1 in 2025 to 1:1 by 2029. In agentic AI workloads, CPUs could account for 50% of the compute, on par with GPUs. Consequently, the server CPU Total Addressable Market (TAM) is projected to surge from $37 billion in 2025 to $223 billion by 2030, representing a 6x expansion. Arm is identified as a key beneficiary due to its superior performance-per-watt and a strategic shift from IP licensing to designing its own chips, targeting $15 billion in chip revenue by 2030. Bernstein raises Arm's price target to $500. For x86 vendors, the report is Overweight on AMD (target $600) and Hygon Information (target CNY 450), citing leadership and strong growth in the Chinese market respectively. Intel's target is raised to $100, reflecting upgraded earnings assumptions. The analysis acknowledges significant supply-side risks, questioning whether foundry and memory capacity can support such rapid CPU growth. The optimistic demand forecast also heavily relies on Nvidia's guidance for over $1 trillion in annual AI infrastructure spend by 2027.

marsbit28 min fa

Bernstein Report: Agentic AI Will Transform CPU from Supporting Role to Leading Role, Bullish on Hygon Information

marsbit28 min fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片