SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231219)：反弹，市场再度买入一月看涨

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2023-12-19Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-12-19

Introduzione

BTC再次受41000美元的支撑反弹回到43000附近，一扫前几天下行行情的阴霾，另一个用于观测市场情绪的指标Vol Skew也逐渐收复失地回到零值上方附近，大约为过去三个月中位数水平；前端的整体波动率水平也稍稍回落，曲线走陡。

周一美联储官员接连为市场的降息预期泼冷水，并再度警告说当前市场对美联储降息的预期有些超前，克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特认为下一阶段关键在于货币政策需要保持紧缩多久，美债收益率先涨后跌，两年期/十年期美债现分别报 4.433% /3.907% ，三大美股指数纷纷收涨，标普 500、道琼斯和纳斯达克指数分别收报 4740.56 （+ 0.45% ）、 37306.02 （+ 0.0023% ）和 14904.81 （0.61% ），其中英伟达和谷歌上涨 2.43% 领跑。日元方面，日本央行 12 月利率会议决议继续实行负利率的政策，预计 2024 年 CPI 同比涨幅可能高于 2% ，受此影响，日元继续走低。

原油方面，红海商船袭击愈演愈烈，增加了该片海域的运输成本，国际原油涨幅接近 2% ，WTI 和布伦特原油分别收涨 1.5% /1.42% 。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231219)：反弹，市场再度买入一月看涨

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231219)：反弹，市场再度买入一月看涨

Source: Binance & TradingView

数字货币方面，BTC 再次受 41000 美元的支撑反弹回到 43000 附近，一扫前几天下行行情的阴霾，另一个用于观测市场情绪的指标 Vol Skew 也逐渐收复失地回到零值上方附近，大约为过去三个月中位数水平；前端的整体波动率水平也稍稍回落，曲线走陡。在交易方面，BTC 12 月底的看涨期权成交火热，主要来自 47000-50000 位置的建仓买入，同时也有以 Short 45000 vs 47000 Call Spread 为代表的策略表达出新年之前上涨空间有限的观点；ETH 的成交同样围绕在 29 Dec 及其附近的到期日上，其中十二月上 Call & Put 均有不少抛售，部分解释了过去 24 小时这段 IV 水平下降的成因，一月上则主要是买入看涨期权，净买入量主要集中在 5 Jan/12 Jan 2450 ～ 2500 附近

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231219)：反弹，市场再度买入一月看涨

Source: Deribit

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231219)：反弹，市场再度买入一月看涨

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231219)：反弹，市场再度买入一月看涨

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231219)：反弹，市场再度买入一月看涨

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231219)：反弹，市场再度买入一月看涨

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231219)：反弹，市场再度买入一月看涨

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Token Of Power Governance Exploit Drains $1.58 Million In WETH, TRM Says

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XRP Ledger Daily Fees Drop Below $400 As Network Activity Question Returns

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Ripple Launches XRPL AI Starter Kit For XRP And RLUSD Agent Payments

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