SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231215)：BTC再度上演插针，看涨情绪备受打击

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2023-12-15Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-12-15

Introduzione

BTC在昨日晚间9点左右遭遇一记5%左右的插针，在随后的三小时内逐渐收复失地回到43000附近横盘。尽管价格迅速回复，市场的看涨情绪却受到打击，BTC Vol Skew再度下滑，连带着ETH Vol Skew整体向下与其靠拢，散户平台上对近期看涨期权的抛售也较为明显。

昨日（16 Dec）美国公布 11 月零售月率为 0.3% ，高于市场预期的-0.1% ，且是今年 9 月以来新高；另一份当周初请失业金人数数据录得 20.2 万人，低于预期的 22 万人，对利率政策敏感的两年期美债收益率上行突破 4.4% ，现报 4.430% ，十年期收益率线跌破 3.9% 后反弹收回全部失地，报 3.946% 。另一方面，市场仍在消化美联储昨天偏鸽派发言可能带来的长期影响，根据金融媒体 ZeroHedge 的报道，美国货币市场基金在近期飙升至最高点后，在 7 周内首次出现 115 亿美元的流出（其中机构资金流出 145 亿美元，零售流入 30 亿美元），贝莱德对此评论，现金为王的时代或已终结，美国股市将出现重要转折点：资金正在开始从货币市场转移到风险更高的资产或转移到定期产品以锁定当前利率。同时，亚特兰大联储 GDPNow 将美国第四季度 GDP 增速从 1.2% 上调至 2.6% ，统计数据也显示出上周美联储的资产负债表扩大了约 22 亿美元，为 8 月 9 日以来的首次扩张，以及自 6 月 7 日来的最大增幅。

在大洋另一侧的欧洲市场，英国和欧洲央行在决议维持基准利率不变的情形下双双回击了市场的降息观点，与美联储形成鲜明对比。据金十报导，英国央行行长贝利表示：不能说利率已经达到峰值，现在开始猜测降息还为时过早。而欧洲央行行长拉加德也明确表态：不应因通胀下降而放松警惕，根本没有讨论过降息。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231215)：BTC再度上演插针，看涨情绪备受打击

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231215)：BTC再度上演插针，看涨情绪备受打击

Source: Binance & TradingView

数字货币方面，BTC 在昨日晚间 9 点（UTC+ 8）左右遭遇一记 5% 左右的插针，在随后的三小时内逐渐收复失地回到 43000 附近横盘。尽管价格迅速回复，市场的看涨情绪却受到打击，BTC Vol Skew 再度下滑，连带着 ETH Vol Skew 整体向下与其靠拢，散户平台上对近期看涨期权的抛售也较为明显。另一方面，随着周末的临近，ETH 中前端的 IV 也出现小幅回落，缩小了和 BTC 之间的差距。

大宗方面，BTC 十二月至次年一月附近的三角价差策略成交火热，其中 26 Jan 24 的 Call 多被用作为卖出腿来抵消成本，更短期限上的 44000 ～ 45000 附近的 Call 则多为买入。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231215)：BTC再度上演插针，看涨情绪备受打击

Source: Deribit （截至 15 DEC 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231215)：BTC再度上演插针，看涨情绪备受打击

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231215)：BTC再度上演插针，看涨情绪备受打击

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231215)：BTC再度上演插针，看涨情绪备受打击

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231215)：BTC再度上演插针，看涨情绪备受打击

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20231215)：BTC再度上演插针，看涨情绪备受打击

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