What's Next for Sam Bankman-Fried's Legal Case?

CoinDeskPolicyPubblicato 2023-11-06Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-11-07

Introduzione

The FTX founder still faces potential post-trial motions, sentencing and perhaps another trial.

The story of "United States v. Sam Bankman-Fried" isn't quite over yet. Now that he's been found guilty on seven different charges, a few things are going to happen.

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One is – of course – the U.S. Probation and Pretrial Services System will get to work on drafting a memo for a recommended sentence.

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The Department of Justice and the defense team will likely have views on that recommendation. Judge Lewis Kaplan has scheduled a tentative hearing on March 28 to discuss the proposed sentence, with deadlines for the two parties to respond to the memo ahead of that date.

There’s also Bankman-Fried’s second trial, currently scheduled for March 11. The judge set a Feb. 1 deadline for the DOJ to update him on whether or not it intends to proceed with this second trial, which is also dependent on the U.S. winning permission from the Bahamas government.

As a reminder, Bankman-Fried faces additional charges of fraud on FTX customers tied to derivatives (though it's worth noting that last week's conviction did include a count of conspiracy to commit commodities fraud), securities fraud against FTX investors, conspiracy to commit bank fraud, conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitter business and conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

These charges were not included in Bankman-Fried's original indictment, meaning they did not appear in the DOJ's request to the Bahamas for his extradition. The Bahamas Supreme Court ordered that the government cannot retroactively grant permission for a trial on these charges until after a hearing has been completed – I haven't yet seen any confirmation that one has been scheduled.

There's also post-trial motions. Defense attorney Mark Cohen and his team may file for a new trial or for the judge to acquit despite the jury verdict. These are pro forma, but Cohen suggested he will file those, and has a Nov. 20 deadline to do so. The DOJ must respond by Dec. 18.

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— Nikhilesh De

Editor's notes

We're going to be wrapping up regular editions of this newsletter soon. I don't have a specific end date yet, as we're still digging through the various notebooks we filled up and washing the ink out of our pockets. Once we do finish up, we'll be putting this newsletter on hiatus. If there is news (say, something unexpected happens with the post-trial motions), we may send out a special issue of this newsletter.

— Nikhilesh De

Edited by Sandali Handagama.

Letture associate

Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

Analysis of Bitcoin Trading Strategies: Why Celebrity Forecasts and Classic Models Fail, Leaving Only These Four Reliable Indicators This analysis examines the failure of common Bitcoin prediction methods and identifies four reliable indicators for constructing a trading strategy. The author reviewed all major BTC prediction approaches from 2017-2025, categorizing them into three groups: celebrity price targets (consistently over-optimistic), analytical models like Stock-to-Flow (broken post-2022), and on-chain signals. The key finding is that more data often creates confusion, not clarity. The strategy discards unreliable elements: celebrity predictions (incentivized to be extreme), pure models (invalidated by post-ETF market changes), and the Fear & Greed Index used alone (too many false signals). Four reliable indicators were selected: 1. **MVRV Z-Score:** Accurately identifies cycle bottoms when entering its green zone (e.g., 2018, 2020, 2022). Note: Its ability to call tops is now ineffective post-2024. 2. **SOPR (28-day MA):** Consistently signals bottoms when below 1.0, indicating holders are selling at a loss. 3. **ETF Net Flow:** A crucial post-2024 metric showing institutional momentum (e.g., sustained inflows = buying). 4. **Macro Liquidity (Fed policy & M2):** Sets the overall directional bias (e.g., bullish during easing cycles). The core strategy involves waiting for a multi-signal共振 (resonance). For example, a bottom signal requires MVRV in the green zone + SOPR < 1.0. A top signal requires overheated on-chain data + sustained ETF outflows. Macro policy sets the overall direction. The Fear & Greed Index is only used as a weighted confirmatory signal, never alone. Action is only taken when three or more indicators align. The author automated this into a monitoring system that sends Telegram alerts only when signals trigger. As of the article's date (April 15, 2026), the system showed a strong bottom signal: extreme fear (F&G=12), MVRV in the buy zone, and SOPR < 1.0. The only contrary signal was weak ETF flows. Historically, such triple on-chain共振 has preceded 100%+ returns. The conclusion emphasizes building a personal framework over relying on external predictions, allowing for iterative improvement and customization based on individual risk tolerance.

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Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

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