Pantera Capital:加密领域值得关注的三个方向

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2023-11-03Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-11-03

Introduzione

从「人工智能 + 区块链」用例的出现,到稳定币在金融市场中日益重要的作用,再到零知识证明的成熟,我相信尽管市场环境波动,但这些领域仍保持弹性。

原文作者:Paul VeradittakitPantera Capital 管理合伙人

原文编译:Luffy,Foresight News

我将探索 Pantera 正在关注的一些领域。

1. 社交和消费者用例

Web2 已经从社交转向金融,而 Web3 正在从金融转向社交。从 Friend.tech 到链上忠诚度,最近 Web3 的社交元素受到越来越多的关注,寻求利用代币化来改变社交行为。随着消费者在链上的交易可能变得更加频繁,我们相信稳定币作为 DeFi 和 TradFi 之间的入口和出口结算解决方案发将挥越来越重要的作用。

此外,生成式人工智能的最新进展可能会带来更加抽象、个性化和简化的用户体验。随着人工智能抽象的推广,我们希望它能够减少 Web3 的入门和教育障碍,使非技术背景的人更容易访问区块链数据。

2. ZK 支持的模块化和可组合性

我们相信,零知识证明(ZKP)将继续成熟,无论是递归证明方面的新理论进步,还是特定垂直领域公司的逐渐专业化,例如协同处理、证明执行、zkDevOps、隐私层等。至此,我们开始使用 ZKP 作为在模块化技术堆栈的不同层之间建立通用接口的一种方式。

模块化是指区块链堆栈的不同层(共识、执行、数据可用性等)由不同的提供商负责。这个想法允许以类似乐高的「即插即用」区块链架构的形式增加可组合性。这意味着项目可以根据面向消费者的应用程序的具体需求定制其区块链技术堆栈。此外,使用 Rust 等通用语言增强智能合约的可组合性可以提高开发人员的熟悉度,从而降低 Web3 开发人员的进入壁垒。

3. 比特币生态系统

我们认为,未来一年左右值得关注的第三个领域是整个比特币生态系统,在预期的 2024 年减半之前,该生态系统已经重新引起了人们的兴趣。这包括 SEC 可能批准主要传统金融基金的 ETF,以及允许更多可组合智能合约的模块化比特币区块链。

Pantera Capital:加密领域值得关注的三个方向

Ordinals 铭文的崛起,来源:Dune Analytics, 10 月 6 日

也许最有趣的创新之一是由类似 Ordinals 技术支持的比特币数字资产的崛起。由此,我们可能会看到 NFT 的使用出现分歧,以太坊 NFT 可能会专注于交易实用性,而比特币 NFT 由于链的文化意义,可能会演变成一种「数字珠宝」和艺术、时尚收藏品的形式。

Letture associate

Why Is the World Nervous About Japan Raising Interest Rates?

In June 2026, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1%, marking its first hike to this level since 1995. While this rate remains low compared to global peers like the US and Europe, the move signals a profound shift for a nation that has been a global source of ultra-cheap funding for decades. Japan's long-standing near-zero or negative interest rates had facilitated massive "yen carry trades," where international investors borrowed low-cost yen to invest in higher-yielding assets worldwide, such as US tech stocks and emerging market bonds. This made Japan a critical, often overlooked, source of global liquidity. Japan's ultra-loose policy stemmed from structural challenges post-1990s asset bubble: aging demographics, chronic low inflation/deflation, and high public debt. Recent shifts, including sustained wage growth (exceeding 5% in recent years) and inflation consistently above the 2% target, have created a "wage-price spiral" possibility, prompting the policy normalization. The global market's concern lies not in the absolute rate but in the potential unwinding of the yen carry trade. As Japanese borrowing costs rise, the economics of these leveraged global investments change, potentially triggering deleveraging and capital outflows from risk assets. Market anxiety focuses on the end of a thirty-year consensus that Japan would perpetually provide cheap funding. Ultimately, the global impact will depend on the interplay with US monetary policy. While Japan is tightening, the significant interest rate differential with the US remains. The key future dynamic is whether simultaneous Japanese hikes and eventual US rate cuts will narrow this gap, forcing a major recalibration of global capital flows and asset pricing built on an era of abundant, cheap yen liquidity.

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Why Is the World Nervous About Japan Raising Interest Rates?

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