Bitcoin price has never lost more than 10% in July — Is 2023 different?

CointelegraphPubblicato 2023-07-03Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-07-03

Introduzione

Bitcoin looks primed for a “liquidity hunt” to $35,000, but not everyone is convinced that BTC price upside will last beyond July.

Bitcoin gained 12% in June, but one forecast sees the good times soon fading for bulls.

In a tweet on July 1, popular trader CryptoBullet admitted that July might not offer much more BTC price upside.

Trader: BTC price rally “likely” ending this month

Despite a last-minute dive, thanks to a macro news event, Bitcoin managed to close out the month of June in a solid position.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, TradingView and CoinGlass confirms that the monthly close came in at $30,465 on Bitstamp.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Those levels continue to hold into the weekend, with the past month marking Bitcoin’s best June performance since 2019.

By historical standards, July looks even better; throughout its history, BTC price action has never lost more than 10% during the month.

For CryptoBullet, however, “common sense” dictates that BTC/USD should fall below some key moving averages.

“So, June surprised me. We got a pretty bullish monthly close: BTC tested the the MA50, bounced strongly and managed to regain the EMA21 !” he commented on the monthly chart.

Letture associate

Bitcoin Price Approaches $100k Mark: Market Forecasts and Wall Street Views

Bitcoin Price Approaches $100,000: Market Forecasts and Wall Street Views Bitcoin is nearing the $100,000 threshold as traders on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi weigh various price targets for the coming years. On Polymarket, with nearly $59.7 million in volume for contracts on Bitcoin's price by end-2026, the probability of hitting $85,000 is seen at 69%, while chances for $90,000 fall to 49%. The likelihood drops significantly for higher targets: $100,000 at 29%, $110,000 at 20%, and $120,000 at 13%. Extreme targets of $150,000 and above are given very low odds. This activity is not purely bullish. Traders also price in significant downside risk, with a 67% chance of Bitcoin falling to $70,000, 44% to $65,000, and 29% to $60,000 before year-end. This creates a wide battlefield of expectations rather than a simple optimistic consensus. Similarly, on Kalshi, a $100,000-target market shows traders assign only a 7% chance of reaching that level by October, 22% by December, and 29% by January 2027. Another contract bets a 21% chance Bitcoin crashes to $50,000 before it ever touches $100,000. In contrast, Wall Street firm Bernstein presents a much more bullish long-term outlook. Analyst Gautam Chhugani forecasts Bitcoin reaching approximately $125,000 by year-end, a new high of $150,000 by mid-2027, and a cycle peak around $300,000 by late 2029. This optimism is based on institutional ownership, ETF demand, and Bitcoin's fixed supply amid high sovereign debt. While prediction market speculators anticipate a volatile path with key resistance at $85k, $90k, and $100k and support at $70k and $60k, Bernstein's analysis suggests a significantly higher trajectory in the years ahead.

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