Foresight Ventures: 市场流动性撤退,山寨币指数瀑布

MarsBitPubblicato 2023-06-16Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-06-16

Introduzione

从活跃项目数量上看,近期停止了连续几周的震荡下降稍有回升,尤其是volume在10 eth和1k eth以上的项目涨幅最大。

A. 市场观点
一、宏观流动性
货币流动性趋紧。美国5月CPI通胀指数同比增长4%,好于4.1%的预期。美联储6月暂停加息,但暗示年内加息两次,比预期鹰派。美元指数震荡回落。美股继续保持强势上涨,标普和纳指齐创一年最高。因为监管和处于流动性末端,加密市场相比美股明显弱势很多。

流动性
流动性

二、全市场行情
市值排名前100涨幅榜:

流动性

本周市场大跌。BTC市占率创2年新高,流动性进一步向BTC集中。山寨币指数Altcoin Season Index接近历史低位,很多热门山寨币突然暴跌20~30%。市场热点匮乏,主要围绕BNB监管和meme币。

  1. UNI:此次v4的创新不如v3。主要变化是v4的hook类似定制化模块,流动性池子的创建者可以做出各种自主创新。
  2. MAV:币安交易所推出新币挖矿项目。MAV是点对池模式的去中心化交易所,在uniswap v3的基础上推出了定向流动性池,lp能够根据资产价格的预期方向而移动来提高资金利用率。MAV的主要竞品是DODO,DODO现在全市值1亿美元。MAV最新一轮融资估值是2.4亿美元。
  3. OX:是三箭资本创始人Zhu Su创建的债权交易所,可以质押OX获得交易费返还。
  4. RAPTOR:是源自国外的4chan社区的meme币,4chan类似Reddit是meme文化的发源地。RAPTOR是公平发售,目前没有交易税。

三、BTC行情
1)链上数据
面对美国重大指控,币安交易所遭遇提币挤兑。在过去的一周,币安的稳定币下降16亿美元,约占总余额的21%。BTC和ETH储备亦分别下降了6%和7%。反观同样被盯上的Coinbase交易所,净储备变化没有那么剧烈。稳定币余额基本持平,BTC储备仅下降1%,ETH储备则下降8%。另一方面,BTC长期持有者非常冷静,对消息没有表现出明显反应。

流动性

稳定币整体持续下降。但USDT市值继续小幅增加,说明美区资金流出,亚欧区资金流入。

流动性

长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据,反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时,是顶部区间;当指标小于2时,是底部区间。MVRV跌破关键水平1,持有者总体上处于亏损状态。当前指标为0.36,进入复苏阶段。

流动性

2)期货行情
期货资金费率:本周费率中性,市场情绪略偏空。费率0.05-0.1%,多头杠杆较多,是市场短期顶部;费率-0.1-0%,空头杠杆较多,是市场短期底部。

流动性


流动性

期货持仓量:本周总持仓量下降,场内主力资金撤退。

流动性


流动性

期货多空比:2.2。散户抄底情绪高。散户情绪多为反向指标,0.7以下比较恐慌,2.0以上比较贪婪。多空比数据波动大,参考意义削弱。

流动性

3)现货行情
本周BTC、ETH均开始周线级别调整,未来2-3个月市场大概率继续弱势震荡。根据历次SEC打击情况来看,市场在打击后反而会迎来上涨。考虑到美联储降息时间表有所延后,牛市的真正开启还要等待到今年晚些时候。属于加密市场的春天一定会来,但要小心别倒在冬天还未结束的时候。

流动性


流动性

B. 市场数据
一、公链总锁仓量情况

流动性

二、各公链TVL占比情况

流动性

本周TVL总量下跌4.2b,跌幅为9.25%,为近几周最大跌幅,主要受到市场流动性撤出的影响。本周ETH链TVL占比继续上升0.3%,至58.7%。
从近七日的TVL数据看,受到SEC加密监管和流动性集体撤退的影响,不管是L1还是L2都是满屏大跌的趋势,热门公链的跌幅基本都在10%以上。BSC链的TVL大幅下跌13.9%。并且所有以太坊二层网络的核心公链TVL均有下跌,Arbitrum下跌9.8%,Optimism本周下跌10.12%,Polygon下跌14.7%,Avalanche下跌10.08%。
三、各链协议锁仓量情况
1)ETH锁仓量情况

流动性

2)BSC锁仓量情况

流动性

3)Tron锁仓量情况

流动性

4)Avalanche锁仓量情况

流动性

5)Polygon锁仓量情况

流动性

6)Arbitrum锁仓量情况

流动性

7)Optimism锁仓量情况

流动性

四、ETH Gas fee历史情况

流动性

当前链上转账费用约为0.72美元,Uniswap交易费用约为6.64美元,Opensea的交易费用约为2.58美元。相比上周gas费用有明显下跌,可以看到近期由于市场流动性撤退并且缺乏热点,gas整体保持最低点位。
在二层网络上deposit费用如下:Arbitrum 3.28美元, Optimisim 5.42美元, Polygon 5.37美元, ZkSync 5.16美元。
五、NFT市场数据变化
1)NFT-500指数:

流动性

2)NFT市场情况:

流动性

3)NFT交易市场占比:

流动性

4)NFT买家分析:

流动性

5)活跃项目数量:

流动性

从市场的总volume看,本周相比上周上涨。NFT市场份额看blur占据约86.5%,相比上周上涨4.2%。Opensea占据份额约为8.2%,相比上周下跌3%。
从活跃项目数量上看,近期停止了连续几周的震荡下降稍有回升,尤其是volume在10 eth和1k eth以上的项目涨幅最大。
从NFT买家情况分析,本周returning buyer有明显上涨,但相比之下,first-time buyer数量反而下降,处于最低点。
从NFT市场的概览来看,本周蓝筹NFT地板价普遍下跌,回到了两周前的水平,Azuki下跌5.28%,MAYC下跌8.07%,BAYC下跌3.48%,Milady下跌16%。
六、项目最新融资情况

流动性
流动性

Letture associate

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