【5.2-5.15 两周观察】美元危机下的 BTC, Meme 和 Worldcoin

DeFi之道Pubblicato 2023-05-16Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-05-16

Introduzione

但从事实来看，无论是加息还是银行危机，都无法支持市场萎缩的论点。从今年数据来看，美股和加密市场都出于上升趋势。今年的稳定币供应也并未出现萎缩。而所谓的加息和银行倒闭带来的也仅仅在于短期的回调，和资金在不同银行间的转移（从 Circle 到 Tether）。真正改变的是加密市场对于 BTC 价值的重新凝练。在放弃了诸多“噪声”之后，加密行业再一次证明了自己的真正价值底层还是这个 BTC。就连一次 BTC 网络的拥堵都造成了远比加息至新高更大的市场影响，可见一斑。

最近两周加密市场下行，BTC 由 $30k 降至 $27k 上下。

前两周 BTC 行情，来源：CMC

在宏观方面，5 月 4 日美联储加息 25 个基点至 5%-5.25% 已经属于“强弩之末”。当天加密市场反应甚至还有所上扬。同时，此时的联邦利率已经为 2007 年以来新高，市场预期 6 月美联储将停止加息。

伪风险：银行危机

稍早一些的 5 月 1 日，摩根大通宣布收购已倒闭的第一共和国银行。为这一轮银行危机暂时划下休止符。但是目前来看，本年度的几次银行危机虽然导致市场的部分恐慌，但是今年总体而言，Nasdaq 上涨 20% 以上，BTC 涨幅更是将近 100%。

从稳定币的供给来看，同样不支持加密市场因银行危机“雪上加霜”的论点。以 USDC + USDT 来看（两者占据稳定币市场的绝大部分），稳定币在相当长的时间内都维持在 $110B 的水平上，唯一的变化只是资金从 Circle 向 Tether 的转移。

USDC 过去一年流通量，来源：CMC

USDT过去一年流通量，来源：CMC

真转变：加密行业的收缩

就今年来看，整个加密行业的市值向 BTC 集中确实正在发生。以 CMC 的 BTC Dominance 指数来看，今年初 BTC 市值占比整个加密市场约为 40%，目前升至47%。

再对比 BTC 的涨幅和整个加密市场今年的涨幅，结局可见：整个市场虽然正在上升，但是市场情绪却更偏向于加密行业中偏保守的避险资产 BTC。

收缩视角下的 BTC：

收缩视角其实也是一种聚光灯视角。对于 BTC 的关注也发掘出了在 BTC 网络上加载 NFT 和 Defi 的那一套愿景。但是以加密行业仅存的历史而言，BTC 代表的是整个加密行业的托底价值和最后抵押物，每一次向非支付应用层的 BTC 拓展（BTC的那些分叉）都失败了。

真正影响市场的却是 5 月 8 日，BTC 的两个矿池同时诞生两个分叉，而后在争夺最长链的过程中，失败链的交易需要重新上链，从而造成了网络拥堵。

并没有什么外部力量可以真正摧毁一个去中心化的网络，如果有，可能就是这个网络自身。

Meme币和 Altman的 WorldCoin

最近的市场中，Meme 币又很神奇地成为了趋势。虽然所有人都知道Meme 币并不能代表市场的基本面，但是 Meme 币却能从侧面反应市场情绪。

事实证明，大多数的 Meme 币都会昙花一现。但是也有例外，去年马斯克推广过的狗狗币就成为了主流。

而 OpenAI 创始人的 WorldCoin 看起来就像是新的狗狗币。支付，转账，为一个虚拟网络提供金融服务，首先提供钱包服务，并且寻求融资。

如果推行下去，WorldCoin 也很有可能成为新的主流代币。只是，马斯克没成功的事，希望Altman 能成。

总结

虽然在美联储加息和新一轮银行危机之下，加密市场前景似乎令人担忧。

但从事实来看，无论是加息还是银行危机，都无法支持市场萎缩的论点。从今年数据来看，美股和加密市场都出于上升趋势。今年的稳定币供应也并未出现萎缩。而所谓的加息和银行倒闭带来的也仅仅在于短期的回调，和资金在不同银行间的转移（从 Circle 到 Tether）。

真正改变的是加密市场对于 BTC 价值的重新凝练。在放弃了诸多“噪声”之后，加密行业再一次证明了自己的真正价值底层还是这个 BTC。就连一次 BTC 网络的拥堵都造成了远比加息至新高更大的市场影响，可见一斑。

从目前看，重视 BTC 的偏保守的市场情绪还将持续一段时间。但是市场也总不乏新的趋势，比如最近的 Meme 币，其中，最有希望的似乎是目前还处于 Meme 币阶段的 WorldCoin，希望Altman 可以带给这个行业惊喜。

毕竟加密跟 AI 一样，也是个超出当下现实的行业，希望现实可以快点赶上。

Letture associate

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