【一周靓文】上海升级如期而至，以太坊上演狂潮

投研第一线Pubblicato 2023-04-15Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-04-15

Introduzione

一周靓文，回顾过去一周最值得关注的热点文章，帮您快速理解市场动态。

上海升级靴子落地

上海升级后的以太坊：展望质押赛道与抛压分析

以太坊上海升级已于北京时间4月13日6点28分在Epoch 194048高度完成。当前以太坊累计质押量约1739万枚，质押率15.4%，年化收益率为5.16%。2022年9月，以太坊成功过渡到权益证明 (PoS) 共识机制，质押32个ETH即可成为验证者。此次上海升级增加了取款功能，用户可提取质押的ETH及相关收益。

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上海升级后，各方对于ETH未来走势观点不一

短期和长期趋势是不同的，加密对冲基金 Globe 3 Capital 首席投资官 Matt Lason 在其博客中表示，尽管 ETH 价格可能会下跌，但它应该是暂时的，而且没有一些人预测的那么严重。Lason 表示，他预计 ETH 到今年年底将达到 3,300 美元，理由是机构对该资产的需求将增加。

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宏观分析

【研报精选】下周CPI可能将决定美联储5月是否加息

尽管3月非农新增就业低于预期，但失业率出现下滑，劳动参与率提升，使市场认为美国劳动力市场仍然坚韧，对美联储5月继续加息的预期上升，交易员的注意力转向CPI。

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【研报精选】从美国3月CPI数据展望美联储政策前景

楼兰财经认为：核心通胀仍表现出较强的粘性。未来面临的主要干扰因素是美联储继续缩表过程中可能发生的金融风险事件。

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香港行情

【研报精选】a16z《加密货币状况》报告：美国正在失去Web3领先优势

a16z认为：我们仍然处于 Web3 的早期，但我们已经不再是开始。从短期的波动中退后一步，可以看到一个更可预测的模式：一个稳定的产品周期，这与媒体关注的金融周期明显不同。

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香港财政司司长陈茂波：Web3缺乏妥善的监管框架，将最大程度实现虚拟资产创新和发展

香港将推动虚拟资产市场可持续和负责地发展，在「相同业务、相同风险、相同规则」的监管思路下，让虚拟资产最大程度创新和发展。

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香港与脱钩：重返3万美元的比特币

4 月 11 日凌晨，比特币重返 3 万美元大关，跟风中香港概念龙头 CFX（Conflux）表现最强，再度接近历史高点，抖音 App 支持比特币价格查询的截图在各大社群流传，「比特币」关键字冲进微博热搜前二十，一时坊间甚至有「国内将重新支持 PoW 回归」的流言四起。

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Letture associate

Welcome to the New Crypto World: Only This Time, The Place Where You Lose Money Is Called the Stock Market

Welcome to the New Crypto World: Only This Time, the Place to Lose Money is Called the Stock Market. The article depicts a future (2026) where global stock markets, particularly tech stocks, are exhibiting behaviors and risks reminiscent of the cryptocurrency world. The narrative centers on a sharp crash in South Korea's KOSPI index and leading stocks like SK Hynix, highlighting widespread retail losses, leverage-induced liquidations, and extreme volatility. It argues that a significant shift in market dynamics is underway: pricing is increasingly driven by narratives (like the AI boom) over fundamental valuation, amplified by high leverage and the rapid, emotion-fueled consensus formed on social media. Former crypto traders, seeking new opportunities, brought their high-risk strategies—chasing narratives, using leverage—into equity markets, focusing on sectors like AI and semiconductors. Ironically, data suggests some major tech stocks have recently shown greater volatility and faster crashes than Bitcoin, which is becoming relatively more stable and "stock-like" through institutional adoption. The piece details how leveraged ETFs in Korea, particularly those tied to single stocks, created a vicious cycle of forced selling that exacerbated the market plunge. It concludes that while stocks retain underlying fundamentals, the *trading* of them has undergone a "de-rationalization": markets now prioritize themes, social media sentiment, and leveraged bets over traditional analysis. In a paradoxical twist, Bitcoin is striving to become more like a traditional asset, while a segment of the stock market is becoming more like crypto—a cycle of grand stories, crowded trades, easy leverage, and the pervasive, often misplaced, belief that one can exit before everyone else. The final, poignant wish from a Korean retail investor—to go back to life before trading and get their money back—underscores that markets offer no refunds.

marsbit9 min fa

Welcome to the New Crypto World: Only This Time, The Place Where You Lose Money Is Called the Stock Market

marsbit9 min fa

The Father of Claude Code: Harness Has a Shelf Life of Only Six Months, Unshackle It

Claude Code's creator, Boris Cherny, argues that AI product harnesses (system prompts, skills, hooks) have a "shelf life" of only about six months. In a Y Combinator interview, he advises developers to regularly delete these components and rebuild them through ablation studies—testing each line's impact—because newer models like Opus 5 often don't need them. He describes models as "living organisms" with distinct "personalities" per generation, requiring empirical, non-prescriptive tuning. Cherny introduces two key concepts: "Product Overhang," where model capabilities outpace product integration, and "Unhobbling" or unleashing models by giving them harder, longer-running tasks with self-verification mechanisms. He shares an example of Claude independently rewriting an Electron app into Swift for over two weeks. For effective AI use, he dismisses "hacks" and urges an empirical approach: observe where the model struggles, then adjust. Treat the model like a colleague, not a tool to be minutely controlled. For learners, he advises combining computer science with applied skills like product design and data science. The core message is to embrace model capabilities through experimentation and reduce restrictive scaffolding.

marsbit14 min fa

The Father of Claude Code: Harness Has a Shelf Life of Only Six Months, Unshackle It

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Feishu Has Become Doubao

This may be the most important day in the ten-year history of Feishu. On July 30, ByteDance announced a major restructuring via internal email. Feishu, an independent operation for a decade, will no longer function separately and will lose its independent sales and marketing teams. Its product team is being integrated into Doubao AI, and its Go-to-Market strategy merges into the Volcano Engine's To B system. This move signals a strategic pivot, not a failure of Feishu. The era where Feishu sought to be an all-encompassing super-app for productivity is ending. AI has become the dominant logic. Industry trends show a shift from building platform "entrances" to embedding AI directly into workflows, as seen with Microsoft Copilot and Google's Gemini. Data reveals the driver: over 90% of Feishu's new clients in Q2 2026 purchased its AI products. Enterprises are now buying integrated AI solutions, not standalone software. By integrating Feishu's deep enterprise workflow scenarios, Doubao evolves from a consumer-facing chatbot into a powerful enterprise productivity engine. This gives Doubao a critical asset: real-world business application. Concurrently, ByteDance established the "Creative Services Platform," unifying its previously fragmented sales fronts (Feishu, Doubao, Volcano Engine) into a single customer-facing entity. This represents ByteDance's first genuine shift to thinking like a true To B company, organizing around client needs rather than internal product silos. The restructuring underscores that AI is no longer just a business line but foundational infrastructure. Doubao is becoming the new organizational core, mirroring TikTok's past ascendancy. This demonstrates a profound shift: AI is beginning to reshape corporate structures, determining resource allocation and strategic priorities. ByteDance is likely just the first of many companies to undergo such an AI-driven reorganization.

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Feishu Has Become Doubao

marsbit19 min fa

The Second Half of the RWA Issuance Race: Amidst the Utilization Dilemma, Trillions Worth of On-Chain Assets Awaken

RWA (Real-World Asset) tokenization has surged to a record $32 billion in on-chain value. However, a structural challenge has emerged: approximately 87% of these tokenized assets are inactive, not participating in DeFi lending or trading activities. This "utilization gap" highlights a key question: what happens after assets are brought on-chain? Data shows a stark contrast among major platforms. While Securitize leads in scale ($4.9B), it has a DeFi utilization rate of only 0.7%. Similarly, Ondo Finance ($3.5B) sees about 2.7% utilization. In contrast, Maple Finance, with a smaller $2.3B in assets, achieves a 62% utilization rate by embedding its assets directly into lending activities from the outset. Three primary factors contribute to low utilization: 1) **Asset Nature**: Tokenized treasuries are often held for yield, not traded. 2) **Regulatory Barriers**: Securities laws and KYC requirements restrict free movement into permissionless DeFi pools. 3) **Infrastructure Gaps**: A lack of deep secondary markets, real-time pricing, and mature clearing mechanisms hinders liquidity. The RWA narrative is now shifting from a "race to issue" to a "battle for application." While native lending protocols like Maple have inherent advantages, distribution channels are becoming critical. The success of products like SyrupUSDG on platforms like Robinhood Crypto demonstrates that access to existing user bases can accelerate adoption far more effectively than protocol-led efforts alone. The $32 billion milestone validates the feasibility of tokenization, but low utilization underscores that bringing assets on-chain is just the first step. The true test for the sector is enabling these assets to circulate, be utilized, and create new economic value within the DeFi ecosystem.

marsbit19 min fa

The Second Half of the RWA Issuance Race: Amidst the Utilization Dilemma, Trillions Worth of On-Chain Assets Awaken

marsbit19 min fa

Fake Flare Network Website Stole $8.5 Million Worth of XRP

A fake staking website, impersonating Flare Network and FXRP, stole approximately 3.4 million XRP (worth around $8.5 million USD) from 71 investors over eight days in October last year. The fraudulent site lured victims by promising guaranteed principal and monthly returns of 1.5% to 1.8%. It tricked investors into withdrawing their XRP from local exchanges and sending it to wallets controlled by the scammers via offshore platforms. The site was shut down on October 23, and its operators vanished. Seoul police tracked assets worth 27.3 billion won ($18.8 million) linked to the scam, freezing 17.3 billion won. Two individuals involved have been handed over to prosecutors on aggravated fraud charges, and another is under investigation for document forgery. Police executed 54 search and seizure warrants and arrested a suspect who had returned from hiding abroad. South Korean authorities have declared a zero-tolerance policy for cryptocurrency fraud this year, warning investors to verify official sources before sending funds as part of heightened vigilance against such scams.

cryptonews.ru34 min fa

Fake Flare Network Website Stole $8.5 Million Worth of XRP

cryptonews.ru34 min fa

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