【研报精选】比特币二月市场研报（2/2）

火必研究院Pubblicato 2023-03-08Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-03-09

Introduzione

在2月下旬，比特币和以太坊的资金费率持续维持高位，市场看涨情绪不减。伴随着美元指数的上行，比特币抛压不减。此外，返向逆回购指标也现实，抛压加大。

Letture associate

China Launches Production of Chip Printing Machines: Why Experts Aren't Quick to Applaud

China has reportedly begun production of immersion DUV lithography machines, critical for manufacturing modern semiconductors. According to reports citing anonymous sources, the state-owned Shanghai Aishengna Electronic Technology Group plans to produce a limited number of these machines in 2026 and 2027, with initial deliveries intended for major Chinese chipmakers. However, industry experts and analysts express significant skepticism. They note the new equipment is far from matching the performance, reliability, and commercial viability of systems from the global leader, ASML. Key challenges identified include the difficulty of transitioning from limited production to high-volume manufacturing with consistent precision and yield over thousands of cycles. Analysts also caution that previous announcements of Chinese progress in this field have often failed to meet expectations. While the development is notable, experts suggest a more immediate risk to ASML could come from potential U.S. export restrictions rather than Chinese competition. The market consensus is that ASML's dominance in the lithography equipment segment remains secure for the foreseeable future. The true test for the Chinese machine will be whether it can achieve meaningful, scaled production by 2027 as claimed.

cryptonews.ru10 min fa

China Launches Production of Chip Printing Machines: Why Experts Aren't Quick to Applaud

cryptonews.ru10 min fa

The Most Important Decision by the Fed Tomorrow! What Are the Expectations? It May Not Be as Final as Previous Ones!

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce its latest interest rate decision tomorrow. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady, with an 80% probability of no change and a 19% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. The Fed has kept its benchmark rate at 3.50–3.75% since December. Recent energy price increases and hawkish comments from some Fed officials have raised the possibility of a hike. However, softer-than-expected inflation data and a lull in US-Iran tensions suggest the bar for a rate increase this week might be higher than markets anticipate. Economists note that if the Fed hikes after a long pause, it likely wouldn't be a one-off move. Historically, when the Fed begins a rate cycle, it continues in the same direction for several meetings. A potential hike could signal further increases ahead. Yet, officials are believed to be unprepared to commit to a series of hikes now. Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard echoed this, stating the Fed typically avoids single, isolated rate changes and that policymakers must decide if they are ready to start a hiking series, which he doubts they are for this meeting.

cryptonews.ru30 min fa

The Most Important Decision by the Fed Tomorrow! What Are the Expectations? It May Not Be as Final as Previous Ones!

cryptonews.ru30 min fa

Visa outlines stablecoin strategy during Q3 earnings call

Visa's fiscal third-quarter revenue grew 14% year-over-year to $11.6 billion, supported by strong growth in payments volume, cross-border transactions, and processed transactions. During its earnings call, the company detailed its expanding stablecoin strategy, emphasizing investments across the entire stablecoin ecosystem, including blockchain infrastructure, issuance, wallets, and applications. Visa highlighted progress in issuance and application layers, and announced its participation in the OpenStandard consortium, which plans to issue the OpenUSD stablecoin for global money movement. The Visa stablecoin platform is designed to allow partners to settle with Visa using stablecoins, provide onchain wallet services, and facilitate conversions between fiat currency and stablecoins, starting with OpenUSD. The platform will also integrate with Pismo to support financial institutions' tokenized deposits, with plans to add more infrastructure providers. Visa further described stablecoins and artificial intelligence as complementary long-term growth technologies, suggesting that while stablecoins reshape the backend of commerce, AI is transforming the frontend.

cointelegraph35 min fa

Visa outlines stablecoin strategy during Q3 earnings call

cointelegraph35 min fa

3% Cashback, 6% Annual Interest, and a Debit Card: Elon Musk Launches X Money in the US

On July 27, 2026, the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) launched its integrated financial service, X Money, initially available only to US-based Premium and Premium+ subscribers. Founder Elon Musk emphasized the launch's significance for the platform. US residents over 18 with a verified X account can use the service. X Payments LLC is not a bank; user funds are held in FDIC-insured accounts at Cross River Bank, with insurance potentially extended up to $10 million through a cash sweep program across partner banks. The core of the service is the X Card, a virtual or physical metal Visa debit card. Key features include: 3% cashback on most purchases (with some exclusions), free instant peer-to-peer payments, worldwide ATM fee reimbursement, no foreign transaction fees, and support for Apple/Google Pay. The service offers interest on account balances, up to 6.00% APY. Premium+ users get this rate immediately, while Premium users must meet a qualifying direct deposit requirement. Additional features include early direct deposit, wire transfers, bill pay, and paper check ordering. Security features include passkey login, customizable transaction limits, and Visa's Zero Liability Policy for fraud. The public launch followed a limited beta test with select Premium+ users in late June 2026. The launch marks X's continued evolution from a social network into a broader digital platform combining communication with everyday financial operations.

cryptonews.ru1 h fa

3% Cashback, 6% Annual Interest, and a Debit Card: Elon Musk Launches X Money in the US

cryptonews.ru1 h fa

$134 Million in Bitcoin Long Positions 'Evaporated' as BTC Price Dropped Below $63K Ahead of Critical Fed Meeting

Bitcoin's price tumbled below $63,000 on Tuesday, leading to a sharp spike in leveraged long position liquidations totaling $134 million and bringing total BTC-related liquidations over $156 million. The drop, which saw BTC briefly hit a daily low near $62,684, extended its monthly losses to 4%. Market experts are pointing to a pivotal week ahead, highlighted by the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, core PCE inflation data, and major earnings reports from companies like Apple and Amazon. According to analysts, the tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference will be crucial. A dovish Fed stance coupled with strong AI capex forecasts and positive PCE data could propel Bitcoin toward $68,000-$70,000 in August. Conversely, hawkish signals alongside disappointing corporate earnings could quickly bring the $58,000-$60,000 range back into view.

cryptonews.ru1 h fa

$134 Million in Bitcoin Long Positions 'Evaporated' as BTC Price Dropped Below $63K Ahead of Critical Fed Meeting

cryptonews.ru1 h fa

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