比特币大涨8%,Mike Novogratz:”本季度有望达到3万美元“

比推Pubblicato 2023-02-16Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-02-16

Introduzione

过去24小时,加密市场全面上涨,比特币 24 小时涨幅超过 8% ,两周内首次突破 24,000 美元。Novogratz 曾表示,他预计比特币将在 2024 年攀升至 50万美元。

数据显示,过去24小时,加密市场全面上涨,比特币 24 小时涨幅超过 8% ,两周内首次突破 24,000 美元,达到大约一个月以来的最大单日涨幅。以太坊上涨 5.5%,交易价格为 1,645 美元。

尽管更强劲的经济数据反映出持续的通胀压力,从而有可能延长美联储的加息路径。例如,早些时候公布的美国 1 月份零售销售数据反弹并超出预期,纽约金融服务部命令 Paxos Trust Company 停止发行新的稳定币BUSD造成监管恐慌,但加密市场似乎在挑战“好消息就是坏消息”的说法。

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加密数据公司 Kaiko 的研究分析师 Riyad Carey 评论称,BUSD 消息为加密市场带来了一些额外的催化剂,这些消息在很大程度上已被消化,部分监管担忧—以及对 BUSD 的直接担忧—正在缓解。

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Coinglass显示,截至本文撰写时,在过去 4 小时内发生了1.0838 亿美元的清算——其中大部分发生在比特币和以太坊空头头寸中。加密货币相关股票也大幅上涨,交易所 Coinbase (COIN) 和比特币矿商 Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) 均上涨 15%,MicroStrategy (MSTR) 上涨超过 9%。

Deribit 的比特币波动率指数 (BTC DVol) 保持平稳,周三最后一次为 48,而周一为 50,仍远高于历史低点,这与 CPI 数据发布后的比特币市场的情绪相符。经纪商 Oanda 的分析师 Craig Erlam 对《巴伦周刊》 表示 ,尽管宏观环境出现负面情绪,但加密市场的弹性令人鼓舞。

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分析师 Michael Boutros 在推文中表示,比特币现在正在测试 2 月份的开盘区间高点。

拥有15年金融市场交易经验的分析师 Rakesh Upadhyay 认为,比特币在 2 月 14 日从 21,480 美元的水平反弹并达到 20 天指数移动平均线(22,235 美元),这表明多头正试图在 21,228 美元的 38.2% 斐波那契回撤位附近阻止修正。如果多头将价格推高并维持在 22,800 美元上方,则可能继续反弹至 23,500 美元,然后升至 24,255 美元,预计多空双方将在该区域内撼旋一段时间。

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如果空头想要加强他们的头寸,他们将不得不积极捍卫 22,800 美元的水平并将价格降至 21,228 美元以下。如果他们这样做,BTC/USDT 货币对可能会将修正扩大至 20,294 美元的 50% 回撤位。修正越深,下一轮上涨开始所需的时间可能越长。

知名短线交易员Skew 2月14日在推文中呼吁投资者关注本周走势,指出在BTC/USD 现在处于“关键区域”,美元走强、债券收益率和股市表现的结合已经为风险资产整体设置了一个利空场景,比特币价格要么升至 28,000 美元,或者跌至 19,000 美元,Skew 表示:“我认为我们正在为下一个重大举措做准备,接下来的几天很重要。从4小时趋势图来看,2.25万美元是强有力的支撑,价格在 19 日均线以上盘整;收回这个水平对 BTC 来说是非常有利的,失败则将导致回踩”。

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Galaxy Digital首席执行官Mike Novogratz周三在美国银行会议上表示,比特币很有可能在下月底前回到 3万美元——这与他曾经预测的 50万美元相去甚远,但仍比当前价格高出近 25%。

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他说:“当我看到价格走势时,当我看到客户打电话时的兴奋,以及 FOMO 的增加,如果BTC在本季度末达到 30,000 美元,我不会感到惊讶。让我怀疑我们今年能否达到爆炸性的、回到旧高的是鲍威尔主席,他真的在按照他所说的去做,我认为美联储不会很快调整和降息”。

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Novogratz 此前曾表示,他预计比特币将在 2024 年攀升至 50万美元。去年 12 月,他调整了这一预测,称仍预计会达到该基准,但“不会在五年内”。

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