Written by: Xiaobing, Deep Tide TechFlow
Introduction: With a net worth exceeding $200 million and an investment in Polymarket, Kevin Warsh is just 30 days and one crucial vote away from leading the Federal Reserve.
Next Monday, April 21, at 10 AM, Washington D.C.
Kevin Warsh will sit in the hearing room of the Senate Banking Committee, facing questioning. If all goes smoothly, he will become the first Fed Chair in history to have publicly invested in Polymarket, Solana, and a Bitcoin Lightning Network startup.
But things will not go smoothly.
Because in this hearing room, one of the 13 Republican committee members has already publicly declared: no matter what Warsh says, he will vote no. This person is Thom Tillis, the Republican Senator from North Carolina.
His reason for opposition has nothing to do with Warsh himself. He opposes because the Department of Justice is still investigating the current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell.
The cause of this investigation is the renovation cost of a building.
The $2.5 Billion Renovation Case: A Precision Strike Against the Fed's Independence
The story begins in 2025.
The renovation project for the Federal Reserve headquarters building severely exceeded its budget, ultimately costing around $2.5 billion. Powell had testified about this before the Senate Banking Committee. Washington D.C. Federal Prosecutor Jeanine Pirro subsequently initiated a criminal investigation, issuing a grand jury subpoena to the Fed, on the grounds that Powell may have made misleading statements during his congressional testimony.
Powell's reaction was unusually fierce. He publicly stated that the true purpose of this investigation was not the cost overrun, but retaliation from Trump for his refusal to cut interest rates faster.
Tillis sided with Powell. This Republican senator, who is set to retire in 2027 and faces no re-election pressure, made a resounding statement: "There is no room for compromise in protecting the Federal Reserve's independence from political interference or legal intimidation."
His stance is clear: until the DOJ concludes its investigation into Powell, he will not vote to approve any Fed nominees, including Warsh.
The Republicans hold only a slim 13-to-11 seat majority on the Senate Banking Committee. Losing Tillis's vote, coupled with near-certain unanimous opposition from Democrats, means Warsh's nomination cannot pass at the committee level.
On the other end of the investigation, Prosecutor Pirro is not backing down. Federal Judge James Boasberg has already dismissed her subpoena, stating bluntly in his ruling that "the government has not submitted any evidence of fraud," and that the primary purpose of the investigation appears to be to pressure Powell. Pirro announced she would appeal and publicly dismissed Tillis's obstruction as "white noise."
"I don't know, and I don't care. I'm following the legal channels, I don't care what they say."
A three-way stalemate. Warsh is caught in the middle.
After May 15th, Who Sits in the Fed Chair's Seat?
Powell's term as Chair expires on May 15th. This is a hard deadline.
But his term as a Fed Governor doesn't end until January 2028. This means that even after his chairmanship ends, he will legally remain a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Powell has made it clear: if Warsh is not confirmed by May 15th, he will continue to lead the Fed as "Acting Chair." New York Fed President John Williams publicly supported this stance, saying the Federal Open Market Committee can "operate as usual" without a separate vote.
This creates an unprecedented situation: Trump has nominated a new Chair, but the old Chair refuses to leave, with both sides simultaneously claiming the right to sit in that chair.
The White House clearly does not want to see this scenario. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week to reporters: "We want Warsh in place as soon as possible." National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was more optimistic, saying he is "highly confident" Warsh will be in place before Powell's term ends. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott predicted that "the DOJ will conclude its investigation in the coming weeks, and Tillis will ultimately vote yes."
But these are hopes, not facts. The fact is: from the April 21st hearing to May 15th, there are only 24 days. In these 24 days, the hearing, committee vote, and full Senate vote must be completed. Normally, this process takes weeks to months.
And what Tillis said to CNN today leaves no room for ambiguity: "I won't spend five minutes asking Warsh about his qualifications, because he is qualified. I will spend five minutes talking about that sham investigation, and until it's over, I will vote no."
$192 Million in 69 Pages: The Wealth Map of the Next Fed Chair
As the political battle intensified, Warsh submitted a 69-page OGE 278e financial disclosure form on April 14th. This document is not only a necessary prerequisite for the confirmation process but also a mirror, reflecting what kind of person this potential next Fed Chair truly is.
First, the scale. Warsh's personally named assets are approximately between $131 million and $209 million. His wife, Jane Lauder (a member of the Estée Lauder founding family, Forbes estimates her net worth at around $1.9 billion), has additional assets worth hundreds of millions. If confirmed, he would become the wealthiest Fed Chair in history, far surpassing the previously deemed "richest Fed Chair" Powell (assets estimated between $19.7 million and $75 million). Core holdings include two investments in Juggernaut Fund LP, each over $50 million, related to the legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office. Warsh received $10.2 million in consulting fees from Duquesne, $1.55 million from GoldenTree Asset Management, $750,000 from Cerberus Capital, and $750,000 from Brevan Howard—all institutions with deep involvement in crypto and macro trading.
Then comes the more intriguing part: through DCM Investments 10 LLC and the AVF series of funds, Warsh holds equity in a string of crypto and blockchain companies. Ethereum L2 network Blast, decentralized prediction market Polymarket, Bitcoin Lightning Network payment company Flashnet, Ethereum development platform Tenderly, DeFi investment platform SkyLink, blockchain social networks Arena and DeSo, crypto-focused investment firm Polychain. He has also previously invested in Bitwise, which manages a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Under OGE rules, these unvalued positions mean each is worth less than $1,000. The volume is tiny. But the signal is powerful.
This is not someone who passively bought a bit of a Bitcoin spot ETF in a brokerage account. His holdings actively span the entire crypto ecosystem, from L1 to L2, from DeFi to prediction markets, from payment infrastructure to developer tools, systematically positioning in over a dozen cutting-edge projects. Every sector he has touched is precisely the area most directly influenced by the Fed's regulatory and monetary policy decisions.
Warsh has pledged to divest all assets that could pose a conflict of interest upon confirmation. OGE certifying official Heather Jones confirmed that after completing the divestitures, he will comply with the requirements of the Ethics in Government Act.
But the issue is not whether he will sell these positions. The issue is: what does it mean for someone with such a deep understanding of crypto infrastructure to sit in the Fed Chair's seat?
Two Paths, Two Worlds
The market now faces a classic binary game.
Path A: Pirro withdraws the investigation, Tillis switches to a yes vote, Warsh takes office in mid-May.
This is the scenario the White House is betting on. Scott Bessent publicly said "let the new Chair Warsh lead the next rate-cutting cycle," hinting that Warsh might quickly push for rate cuts upon taking office. Although historically a hawk (he warned about inflation risks even during the 2008 financial recession), recent signals show Warsh leaning towards supporting rate cuts. For the crypto market, a Fed Chair who simultaneously understands the crypto ecosystem and favors looser liquidity is the most favorable combination imaginable.
Path B: Pirro insists on appealing, Tillis doesn't budge, Powell continues to lead as Acting Chair.
This is a scenario full of uncertainty. Powell has clearly stated he will not leave the Fed Board before the investigation concludes. If he continues to chair FOMC meetings and set interest rate policy in an acting capacity, Trump will face a Fed Chair who is "nominally departed but effectively still in power." This constitutional-level debate about Fed independence could be decided in the Supreme Court, which has yet to rule on whether Trump has the authority to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
For the market, Path B means persistent uncertainty. The direction of monetary policy will depend on the outcome of a legal tug-of-war, and the timeline for that legal battle is unpredictable.
What Does This Have to Do with Bitcoin? Everything.
On the surface, this is a Washington drama about Fed personnel. But for those in the crypto market, every variable points directly to asset prices.
Interest Rate Path. Warsh taking office implies升温的降息预期 (warming rate cut expectations). Bessent is already publicly urging "let Warsh lead the next cycle." Rate cuts are a definite positive for risk assets. If Powell continues acting, he will likely maintain a "pause" stance given inflation risks from the US-Iran war, potentially delaying cuts until the second half of the year or later.
Regulatory Signals. A Fed Chair who has invested in Polymarket, Tenderly, and Polychain, versus a Jerome Powell who once publicly said "if I were the government, I'd shut down cryptocurrency," have vastly different impacts on the crypto regulatory environment. Warsh has called Bitcoin a "good cop for policy," believing its price can tell policymakers when they are right and when they are wrong. This cognitive framework suggests he is unlikely to support hostile regulation of the crypto industry.
Stablecoin Legislation. Warsh's confirmation timeline highly overlaps with the window for stablecoin legislation advancing in Congress. A pro-crypto Fed Chair could significantly accelerate this process.
At next Monday's hearing, Tillis will likely spend his five minutes of questioning not asking Warsh a single question about monetary policy, but using all the time to lambast Pirro's investigation. This scene itself will become a headline for global financial media.
The real suspense is not in the hearing room. It lies in: Will Pirro withdraw the investigation before May 15th? What is Tillis's bottom line? If neither gives in, will Trump directly intervene with the DOJ?
There are 30 days left until Powell's term expires. Who sits in the Fed Chair's seat 30 days from now will redefine the rules of the game for the global capital markets in the second half of 2026.
For the crypto market, the weight of these 30 days may be heavier than that of any FOMC meeting.
