The growing conflict in the Middle East has brought the possibility of no rate cut by the US Fed in the next meeting. Oil prices are rising, and that is creating a scenario for inflation, or stagflation, in the US. Crypto prices, which have recovered significantly over a week, could change their movement if the war escalates or stays the same for a longer time.
US Fed and the Rate Cut
The US Federal Reserve was less likely to slash lending rates in the next meeting. The scenario seems to be getting a firm grip, with a constant escalation in the Middle East. It is now speculated that the US Fed could keep the rate steady to manage the war shock.
The central bank is aiming to achieve a 2% inflation rate. It last achieved a 2.4% rate in February 2026. March could see a higher rate, given that the oil price surpassed $100 and is still above the expected average price of $80.
Gasoline price, on average in America, was $3.79 against a gallon on Tuesday. That is 25% higher than the pre-war days. The US Fed is reportedly attempting to balance high-price possibility and potential risk to the job or growth market.
Crypto Prices
That brings all the attention to crypto prices. There has been a significant weekly recovery for top tokens, like BTC and ETH. For instance, Bitcoin tokens are up by 6.23%, and Ethereum tokens have gained 13.97% to trade at $73,982.93 and $2,315.67, respectively, at the time of writing this article.
Gold and Silver, in contrast, have declined by 4.19% and 7.71%, applicable in the same order, during the same timeline. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how crypto prices react when, and if, rates are actually kept steady and the possibility of inflation or stagflation brews hotter.
Inflation/Stagflation Outlook
The outlook is drawn on the grounds of the ongoing war in Iran. But that’s not the sole reason for the complete picture. It is joined by Trump’s tariff policies, which could impact growth and prices. A report that surfaced earlier underlined a decline in consumer sentiment.
The study was done from February 17 to March 09, with the early days of March 2026 almost reversing the optimistic outlook that was shared in the previous month. One of the key concerns of participants turned out to be the difficulty in managing personal finance.
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